Bob Volman Price Action Scalping

[samich1262]

If I understand it correctly, your approach to newborn trends (first leg, first pullback) is not taking them, because you either want confirmation of the trend or test of the barrier from which trend commenced? I really like my last BB and consider it one of the best setups, so this part of your comment caught me off guard. Could you elaborate on this topic a little more please? Thank you.

Yeah, it did look like the start of a strong downtrend, but it did not look like it came from a proper range break. It didn't break from the bottom of the range. As a general rule, I never take a trending setup after an IRB unless there is a successful retest of the breakout level first. It basically needs confirmation that a new trend is starting. Price didn't create a good barrier at the 1.254 zone to prevent price from climbing back into the range so I expected a retest. Since I didn't see it, I thought the move might get countered. Sometimes if there is a retest that comes 1-pip short of the breakout level, I skip those too unless they look really strong.

The only other problem that I have with the BB is that none of the candlesticks closed against the lower barrier. On my chart, there are 5 equal touches of the bottom barrier but they are all candle wicks, no bodies. I don't really know if that's a valid reason for concern, but it does possibly show bullish interest at that level.

Hope this helps. It's something I'm still trying to wrap my head around too.

 

[BLS]

Took two trades today but I did not manage them well. I trailed my stop too aggressively for the first one because I thought prices wouldn't go anywhere for awhile (seemed like volatility died down). For the second trade, I bailed out early because I saw prices stall, noticed that the London session was coming to a close, and wanted to lock in some profit to make up for the loss from the first trade. I end up with profit of 0.4 pip for today.

I might trade later today when the Beige Book is released at 14:00 NY time. I also might have a look at the AUD/USD at 9:30 NY time since there seems to be some high impact news coming out.

 

[BLS]

Some other trades I was looking at today but did not take.

 

[vanica]

Took two trades today but I did not manage them well. I trailed my stop too aggressively for the first one because I thought prices wouldn't go anywhere for awhile (seemed like volatility died down). For the second trade, I bailed out early because I saw prices stall, noticed that the London session was coming to a close, and wanted to lock in some profit to make up for the loss from the first trade. I end up with profit of 0.4 pip for today.

Hi BLS,

This is how I saw the price action in this range. That false upside breakout you mentioned on your chart (3) was the main reason I started thinking that bears were actually pushing the prices down. I decided to keep my stop at initial tipping point even though there was no follow through on the break of this IRB. There clearly was a buildup at the top barrier later but I thought there were no prior signs of bullish strength to take this RB.

 

[samich1262]

I might trade later today when the Beige Book is released at 14:00 NY time. I also might have a look at the AUD/USD at 9:30 NY time since there seems to be some high impact news coming out.

I'm planning on watching both of those announcements too. I need as much real-time practice as I can get right now.

 

[samich1262]

Hi BLS,

This is how I saw the price action in this range. That false upside breakout you mentioned on your chart (3) was the main reason I started thinking that bears were actually pushing the prices down. I decided to keep my stop at initial tipping point even though there was no follow through on the break of this IRB. There clearly was a buildup at the top barrier later but I thought there were no prior signs of bullish strength to take this RB.

I almost took this one too, but I decided pressure was too even. The overall trend had been down, but evaluating the pressure on the RB itself wasn't as clear to me. The first thing that stopped me was that after price dipped to 1.252 both times, there was a large bullish candlestick. Then there were 6 equal touches in a row at the 1.2523 level. The FB that would show up later would also stop at this level, and that was my 2nd hint that this level could pose a problem. Looking back before those 6 equal touches, there was also a tiny top. I decided to wait and see if prices could break through that level of 1.2523 instead of 1.2524. The following FB to the topside a few minutes later could have been viewed as a higher high. However, then we had a lower low, a lower high, a higher low, another higher low, which made 2 bearish signs and then 2 bullish signs. That pressure seemed too even to me to trade it when it broke 1.2524. I had my finger on the mouse in case it broke 1.2523, but it had a well-defined barrier on the top and the bottom. There was more pressure on the top, and it did eventually break topside. I thought about trading it as an IRB but there were 3 tops that it needed to break through that were only 4 or 5 pips away, so I skipped it.

 

[samich1262]

View attachment 143696

This chart is from the 22nd. I went back through this today for some practice and found some situations similar to setups that we saw today. This is GBP/USD but I think this chart is very helpful.

What we saw today was a BB after an improper breakout with no retest, and the BB failed. That made sense to me. However, here we have a BB after a good IRB and a successful retest of the range. Take a look at that last box. The BB that formed after that failed. There was a solid barrier on both the top and bottom of the BB. I can't figure out why this failed. It doesn't look like the best BB in the world but it does look valid to me. The context was fine. The BB was missing a higher low but that top barrier was solid. Maybe needed a more prominent 2nd low? It seems like the market just does not want to trend lately. The BB eventually looked like it could break either way, but shorting this BB would be a mistake because the overall pressure of the chart is up. Countertrend traders took it south like 6 pip before it turned bullish again.

On this chart I drew 2 IRBs prematurely. They did make it to the range barrier though, and could have earned 5-6 pip. Trading an IRB in a 10 pip range is tough but it can be done if carefully chosen. There are some examples near the end of the IRB chapter in the book. I just keep getting in too early.

The first box I marked as an IRB, but it was premature. It would be buying into 3 significant tops, but if you wanted to buy and then exit the position at the barrier, there's a decent gain to be made there.

Box #2: Looked like a possible IRB but in context, it was also premature. It comes after several lower tops. Would be better if it formed right on top of the lower barrier (like the 3rd box). However, again, this could be taken and exited at the barrier. I don't like to do that though, because sometimes it seems like buyers might see that potential resistance and not join in on the trade. Also, I should have extended the box to the top to the left. Don't know why I didn't notice that.

Box #3: Finally, a high quality IRB.

I think that retest could have been treated as an ARB or a DD.

 

[Testpilot]

Hi great thread you have going here.

I've just finished reading Bobs book (for the first time that is) and his method really appeals to me. As an x STIR spreads trader I really like simplistic trading methods with basic charts and focusing on the price action.

Can anyone give me any feedback on if there is enough liquidity in the Asian session to use Bobs method on EUR/USD? I did notice that he mentioned the Asian session in one of the chapters but if anyone has anymore feedback that would be much appreciated as the Asian session is an easy time for me to get focused screen time.

 

[BLS]

Hi great thread you have going here.

I've just finished reading Bobs book (for the first time that is) and his method really appeals to me. As an x STIR spreads trader I really like simplistic trading methods with basic charts and focusing on the price action.

Can anyone give me any feedback on if there is enough liquidity in the Asian session to use Bobs method on EUR/USD? I did notice that he mentioned the Asian session in one of the chapters but if anyone has anymore feedback that would be much appreciated as the Asian session is an easy time for me to get focused screen time.

Not for the moment unless there's a news release (sometimes Australian or Chinese news may move the EUR/USD pair). Maybe in September when volume (hopefully) returns. Bob mentions the Asian session because the ranges that form during that time provide good study material.

 

[stehlikpetrmsncom]

View attachment 143696

Hi, I can't open your attachment, I get this message: "Invalid Attachment specified. If you followed a valid link, please notify the administrator". Is the problem on my side or does anyone else have similar difficulties?

 

[BLS]

Hi, I can't open your attachment, I get this message: "Invalid Attachment specified. If you followed a valid link, please notify the administrator". Is the problem on my side or does anyone else have similar difficulties?

It's not just you. It's happened to him before. I'm not sure how he uploads his pictures to get an error like that. I sent him a PM on the issue already.

 

[samich1262]

Ok, hopefully this chart will post this time! I don't know why some of my attachments don't work the first time. Here's that GBP/USD chart from the 22nd that I was commenting on.

 

[stehlikpetrmsncom]

Took two trades today but I did not manage them well. I trailed my stop too aggressively for the first one because I thought prices wouldn't go anywhere for awhile (seemed like volatility died down). For the second trade, I bailed out early because I saw prices stall, noticed that the London session was coming to a close, and wanted to lock in some profit to make up for the loss from the first trade. I end up with profit of 0.4 pip for today.

I might trade later today when the Beige Book is released at 14:00 NY time. I also might have a look at the AUD/USD at 9:30 NY time since there seems to be some high impact news coming out.

Hi, I was thinking about this trade, but decided not to engage because the market slowed down. Do you have some rule how to distinguish between squeeze and 'dead' market - when volume is gone? And one more question, do you add those numbers, rectangles and little hints to the chart while you are trading, or after trading, for analysis? Thanks.

 

[BLS]

Hi, I was thinking about this trade, but decided not to engage because the market slowed down. Do you have some rule how to distinguish between squeeze and 'dead' market - when volume is gone? And one more question, do you add those numbers, rectangles and little hints to the chart while you are trading, or after trading, for analysis? Thanks.

It's hard to distinguish between a squeeze and a dead market. My only rule to avoid a dead market is to stop trading after 9AM my time (12PM NY time, NY lunch hour).

I add those numbers after trading. I do draw boxes/lines and sometimes have some notes but nothing as detailed as the charts I post; I just keep a mental note of most of the clues. The post-trade analysis helps me remember why I took the trade and whether the trade was valid or not but I only do this after my trading session has ended. I try to keep my charts clean while trading to maintain focus. After each skipped, missed, or completed trade, I take a screenshot of the chart of whatever markings I had for later analysis, and then I wipe the chart clean. Leaving some notes behind of skipped/missed trades just serves to remind me that I missed out on a good trade or that I took a ****ty trade, and that just takes a toll on my mental state/distracts me. Wiping my chart after each trade is something I've been trying out starting last week. I think it helps.

 

[BLS]

View attachment 143696

I can't figure out why this failed.

Valid trades/setups can fail from time to time. They're only valid because the (perceived) probability of them hitting their 10 pip target is greater than 50%.

 

[stehlikpetrmsncom]

I managed to lose some pips today, again. I include images.

1/ ARB - Very long range around 50 round number zone without exact upper barrier.

2/ RB - It looks like market participants were eating lunch a little longer today, the market was quiet.

3/ BB - With support and false break roughly at number 50, but number 60 sent prices away.

(4)/ BB that I missed/skipped, I'm not sure what went wrong on my side.

5/ BB - Break of 1.25 zone after strong downtrend, I hesitated and entered a pip later, which resulted in missing the target by a pip and ending with small loss.

6/ Counter-trend RB - What a mistake...

If there is anything positive about this day, it is that market finally went away from the 40-50-60 round numbers, that zone is nuts.

Hope you guys did better then me

 

[samich1262]

I just took this nice BB on the AUD/USD, but I bailed for like a 2 pip gain when it pulled back a little. Stupid... I ignored the tipping point technique. These market conditions have me a bit razzled. I guess that means I'm not thinking in terms of probabilities yet. That BB was pretty nice and had a good chance of holding up, there was no real reason for me to exit. I just didnt like that it stalled. Earlier today I lost 5 pips in a valid BB on the GBP/USD. It was going into a 50 level. Had that not happened I probably would have stayed in on this. Oh well, at least I participated... If I remember correctly, it's ok to take a BB or an RB into a 50 or 00 level if there are no signs of resistance, just not a DD, FB or SB right?

 

[BLS]

I wasn't ready to take advantage of the trend so I passed up a couple of BB opportunities earlier.

The only trade I took today was this DD after that huge move down. About twelve dojis formed at the end of the pullback but since they were mostly capped under the 20 EMA it didn't seem like a problem to me. Probably should've skipped it since there was no significant pullback after that ~60 pip move.

 

[samich1262]

I skipped that for the same reason. Lol, you know what really sucks? My demo account made 30 pips today but my live account went -3. It's because I just put the trades in the demo account and then kind of ignore what happens, I'm not attached to it. Darn emotions. I must become a robot.

 

[samich1262]

IRB shortly after open this morning.

That 2nd arrow is pointing to an invalid DD, but I had a question about it. It's not really valid because the DDs before the break are not more compressed than the pullback. But if they were... would anyone have traded that? Or does that lower top look too sketchy?

I did not trade that last box. Was preparing to, but I missed the break. However, the pressure doesn't really look like it's on the barrier of the box, it's kind of in the middle and price doesn't look like it's under as much pressure as it does in some boxes where it bounces between the 2 sides of the barrier. I don't know that it makes it invalid though. At least it wouldn't have prevented me from trading it had it not broken so fast. I was waiting for a 2nd chance to get in, but price got slammed instantly like 4 pips back after the breakout. I thought that was a pretty negative sign. Any thoughts on the validity of this BB?