Big Ben on the FTSE100

[splashy]

One big plus with the new charts is the alert feature splashy. Great if you want to move a stop to breakeven at some set point for instance. I've been using the IGindex text alerts (& trading on Capital!)

Has anyone tried the backtesting function yet? haven't had time myself and wondered if it was user-friendly/reliable.

I'll be interested to see what you come up with re eurusd and gbpusd, gelly. The method with which i'm testing eurusd 8-9am, it has only had 4 losing weeks out of 22. The only reason i'm not trading it is that a lot of the profit has come from the reverse signals and i don't see how they can stay so lucrative over any length of time. Time will tell.
Cable has been consistent too but to a lesser degree.
Having said that, the 8-10am patterns seem nothing to write home about.

 

[splashy]

I've got a demo account with Smart Live Markets - you can spread bet using Metatrader4 which I really like. The charts are so much better than the Capital Spreads charts. I believe CapSpr charts are running using flash player which means if I've more than a few charts open they seize up and I have to reload them. Also the live account on SLM allows you to play from as little as 10p per pip so its great for trying things out on.

how do the spreads compare, bartleby?

 

[Gelly]

how do the spreads compare, bartleby?

Sorry to butt in, but I've been live trading SLM a while now. Spreads (normal hours):
Popular currencies 2
Ftse, Dax, Cac 1
Dow 2
S&P 4
Crude & Brent 5
Silver 4
Gold 5

 

[tomorton]

Possible alternative markets for BB strategies for UK-based traders? -
Gold - using 0800-0830 as BB range
Dow - might offer two BB trades, using 0800-0900 and 1400-1500 as ranges

Anybody any experience BB-ing the above?

 

[Bartlby]

Not been infront of the computer much this week - at least not in time to put on BB trades. Not sure what sort of a week it would have been - I think yesterday would have been a loser and today a no trade. Hoping to be back to normal next week.

 

[tomorton]

I make it so far this week, a win, 2 losses and a no-trade on the FTSE, which I am not trading, and 3 wins and a loss on the GBP/USD, which I am trading, letting trades run the whole session.

 

[ibetyou]

Hi Tomorton. I don't say much and write even less,but have followed the thread on bb ever since i joined t2w back sometime ago.
I've always found the thread informative and respectfull of other peoples views and the honesty they show in weather they win or lose.
I applaud you all and thankyou for the trouble you take to share your trading experiences with us all.

Although i must say i'm not a short term trader like yourselfs i still like to follow the thread if only to keep up with whats going on with you guys.

Best of luck with the GBP/USD ,you will soon be long term trading yourself Tomorton leaving it to run the whole session.

Keep up the good work guys let me know if you start playing longer term i might be able to join in.

 

[tomorton]

Hi ibetyou - Many thanks for the quite unexpected and very kind words. I hope your longer term trades go well, but if you hit a rough patch, well, you know where we are and what we're doing.

 

[ibetyou]

Thanks Tomorton.I have promised myself not to trade short term as my timeing is terrible,my longer term trading is far more friutfull.
You can be sure if i hit a rough patch ill call on you guys for guidance, but for once i,m getting it right at the moment,only taken me about 20 years.always was a slow learner.
The stupid thing is i,m now playing how i was first trained so many years ago.
But i will keep looking in on you all. chears

 

[tomorton]

Weekly round-up - I make the FTSE100 2-2 this week, making a 20-trade performance of only 8-12, 6-7 over the last 4 weeks, so I will shun the index for Big Ben trades for at least a few more days.

A better picture on my first reserve, GBP/USD - 3-2 this week, making 12-8 over 20 trades, so will continue working this pair while the FTSE is in the red. Running these orders to 1300 at latest but happy to let the trades run until at least 1630 if they need it.

Second reserve, if needed, is EUR/USD - also 3-2 this week.

 

[tomorton]

Having had a little time free this week, I have to let you know I have been absorbed by the possibilities of short-term pin bars. pocrel's pin bar thread here on T2W is running really well, Trader Dante covered pin bars in depth a while back and there is lots of good material on the web. Niall Fuller at www.learntotradethemarket.com and http://www.youtube.com/user/OzTrader?feature=pvchclk is worth a look.

pocrel uses 30min bars and pivot points, whle Niall uses mostly 1d bars, but sometimes bases his trades on 4hr bars. I am using Niall's approach to extend my trading opportunities through the day beyond the BB time frame and to take advantage of markets where I don't have any personal data on how well BB might respond, such as commodities and far eastern indices. Not intending to spend time on pin bars on this thread but hoping for some good fun with this approach.

 

[trader_dante]

Having had a little time free this week, I have to let you know I have been absorbed by the possibilities of short-term pin bars. pocrel's pin bar thread here on T2W is running really well, Trader Dante covered pin bars in depth a while back and there is lots of good material on the web. Niall Fuller at www.learntotradethemarket.com and http://www.youtube.com/user/OzTrader?feature=pvchclk is worth a look.

pocrel uses 30min bars and pivot points, whle Niall uses mostly 1d bars, but sometimes bases his trades on 4hr bars. I am using Niall's approach to extend my trading opportunities through the day beyond the BB time frame and to take advantage of markets where I don't have any personal data on how well BB might respond, such as commodities and far eastern indices. Not intending to spend time on pin bars on this thread but hoping for some good fun with this approach.

Hi tomorton,

I no longer trade pin bars. I use them (if they appear on the W1 or D1 merely for bias and now simply enter blind using market structure to identify the higher probability areas.

Tom

 

[tomorton]

Cheers trader_dante, thanks for the update.

'simply enter blind' sounds very relaxed.... are you meaning entry in an area price is likely to move from, without a discrete buy / sell signal?

 

[trader_dante]

Cheers trader_dante, thanks for the update.

'simply enter blind' sounds very relaxed.... are you meaning entry in an area price is likely to move from, without a discrete buy / sell signal?

Exactly that.

There are many areas and setups that it is not necessary to wait for confirmation from price at.

 

[Splitlink]

Exactly that.

There are many areas and setups that it is not necessary to wait for confirmation from price at.

Which is the main obstacle regarding indicators. The are based on averages and are lagging.

 

[ibetyou]

HI Tomorton. May i make a suggestion,

I'm thinking you play a 4 hour time frame and also 1 hour and 30 minutes,so i'm thinking your doing much the same as myself,
So i got to thinking you might like to try this simple yet very affective way of giving yourself small achievable targets.

I personally use bollinger bands but three moving averages are just as good.
Now the first thing is, you need five time frames, As you play 4 hours you need to include the daily time frame 4hr 1hr 15min 5min.

Write down there ranges in to columns so you get the high range in each time frame the middle and the bottom so you get something like this.

daily range for the ftse 100 6105 5925 5746
4hour range 5982 5879 5777
1 hour range 5959 5938 5916
15 min 5946 5939 5931
5 min 5943 5938 5934

Now add each column up and divide by five.and you should get this.

5987 5923 5860

I find they act like pivit points if the market was to go up to 5987 add 5987 and 5923 together and divide by two and you will see it come back to that before going on if it falls back further then its going back to 5923 and if it passes that add 5923 and 5860 together divide by two and you will get its next likely level.once hit it may turn and head back to 5923.
Hope you get the idea works really well for daily and weekly but remember to always use 5 time frames and always one time frame further from the time frame your playing.

I must stress though you need to do the workings out before the market opens in the morning these figures won't be any good by monday.

Its good to do the daily range also as if it passes 5987 you can see where its off to as at the moment the daily range is 6026 5916 5807 and the weekly range is 6097 5851 5604
The same with the daily range only any good if done just before the market opens.

I always do a monthly weekly and daily range so for me my game plan for next week is to
sell if the market reaches the 6000 area or buy if it reaches 5850 area
I do a daily range each morning which shows me the best price to get in at, where to put my stop and if it all goes wrong i know it will come back to where i got in, then i can reavaluate the market and dicide to get out or stay in.

Hope it all makes sence give it ago.
Ill most likly be the laughing stock of t2w next week lol.

 

[trader_dante]

Which is the main obstacle regarding indicators. The are based on averages and are lagging.

Yes, good point.

I now think of candlestick patterns as a lagging indicator.

By the time you get the tip off, you're 40, 50, 100 ticks behind the action.

 

[Splitlink]

Yes, good point.

I now think of candlestick patterns as a lagging indicator.

By the time you get the tip off, you're 40, 50, 100 ticks behind the action.

What do you think of two or three tops/bottoms in line with close stops, say just above the highest/lowest of the three? To be honest, I do use an indicator with this. It's a Bollinger. Does the Bollinger come into the "lagging indicator" category, IYO ?

Re: your observation on candles. If you wait for the candlestick to complete you are late. The bar, too. for that matter.

Lower TFs ?

 

[tomorton]

Hi ibetyou - This looks quite a complicated bit of preparation work, though I do like the fact that it is purely price-derived and all the numbers inputted are real prices made by the market and actually traded at / through. Apart from the unique first hour range, as in Big Ben, or possibly 30m, I find it difficult to give price action over time periods measured in minutes rather than hours any significance. On the face of it you are indeed deriving a pivot point from actual prices and your formula seems as likely to be successful in identifying significant price levels as any other. The real test I suppose is how often are they significant and presage a change in market participant behaviour? i.e. stopping buying on reaching a resistance level, or stopping selling at a support level.

For me, I like to use price levels that I can see drawn by price on the chart - so I can rationalise trendlines and s/r, whereas I find pivots just a bit abstract. I can understand a market player saying, I will start selling if price gets to X,000. But I can't picture anyone rationalising such an action by saying, I will start selling if price reaches an average of some prices previously traded, which have been selected at random.

Still, the real test is whether it works, not if tomorton can understand it - so please carry on and do it but please report back here how it goes.

 

[Splitlink]

Hi ibetyou - This looks quite a complicated bit of preparation work, though I do like the fact that it is purely price-derived and all the numbers inputted are real prices made by the market and actually traded at / through. Apart from the unique first hour range, as in Big Ben, or possibly 30m, I find it difficult to give price action over time periods measured in minutes rather than hours any significance. On the face of it you are indeed deriving a pivot point from actual prices and your formula seems as likely to be successful in identifying significant price levels as any other. The real test I suppose is how often are they significant and presage a change in market participant behaviour? i.e. stopping buying on reaching a resistance level, or stopping selling at a support level.

For me, I like to use price levels that I can see drawn by price on the chart - so I can rationalise trendlines and s/r, whereas I find pivots just a bit abstract. I can understand a market player saying, I will start selling if price gets to X,000. But I can't picture anyone rationalising such an action by saying, I will start selling if price reaches an average of some prices previously traded, which have been selected at random.

Still, the real test is whether it works, not if tomorton can understand it - so please carry on and do it but please report back here how it goes.

I agree with what you say in 2nd paragraph. That is one reason why I see a price breaching a Bollinger as being overbought/oversold. It is a reason that I can understand as justification for an entry. I have been using Procel's 30M pins but he uses all instruments and we use Footsie, Frankly, I don't have great results with pins on any line. Dante uses 60M which is, somewhat, better, but a pin will only work if you have the direction right and I have found that there can be several pins in a trend before it gets to the one that turns the direction. Each one of us uses what he sees to be a logical target for acceptance/rejection lines and an extreme distance from a centre line seems to me to work better, be it Bollinger or a channel around an average or trendline.