Yes nice to have a winner. If I'd been trading rather than paper trading I might well have left this trade. My natural inclination is to wait and see what happens to price at round numbers - continuation, reversal etc. I know thats not how trading a system works but I still find it hard to go against that inclination.
yes - ive been uncomfortable all week witth the 6000 beckoning. Interestingly though - so far this week in real terms im down 11 pts. However if I'd followed my own rules to the letter, I'd be up 21....
Not sure what the hell that tells me! Tomorrows a new day - ticket ballot results and a winning trade i think
Not sure what the hell that tells me! Tomorrows a new day - ticket ballot results and a winning trade i think
pb8856
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Yeah, very puzzled, hit my entry at 9:38 went flat for a bit then at 9:59 it spiked up to where my stop was (the exact 0.1) then continued down to hit the target
its frustrating - but I'm not sure how significant it actually is - heres a few trades that hovered around it recently
5/4 - Sold at 6001 stopped out at 6019
12/4 - Sold at 6001 hit limit of 5979
13/4 - Buy at 6000 hit limit of 6016
Today - Buy at 5999 stopper out at 5984
So it's 5050 over the last couple of weeks. Never the less - I think I'm going to stick clear of it if it pops up next week.
5/4 - Sold at 6001 stopped out at 6019
12/4 - Sold at 6001 hit limit of 5979
13/4 - Buy at 6000 hit limit of 6016
Today - Buy at 5999 stopper out at 5984
So it's 5050 over the last couple of weeks. Never the less - I think I'm going to stick clear of it if it pops up next week.
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A break-even week for me, three no-trades due to wide BBR, then a 1-1 finish. It's encouraging to note I would have been down 2-3 if ignoring the size of the BBR. Still in profit by 3 trades in May.
Over the last 4 weeks, performance is solid, 10-6. Year to date, covering 19 weeks, is 37-26, for a 59% win rate, slowly improving. Win rate from last August remains 64%.
Over the last 4 weeks, performance is solid, 10-6. Year to date, covering 19 weeks, is 37-26, for a 59% win rate, slowly improving. Win rate from last August remains 64%.
CharmerCharts
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Taken from CharmerCharts
Todays FTSE Technical Analysis:
FTSE could go for a test of the neck line of the head and shoulders mentioned in last week’s report at which coincides with the May lows so far at 5850/40.
This should offer good support again today. A break lower is very possible however and should target better support at 5816/00. Attempt longs here in the hope of a bounce. However if the market cannot find a bottom here today we could test 5769/66.
If we hold on to 5850/40 we remain range bound and could crawl back towards 5895/00 and then 5925/30. Above here look for 5965/75 and then 6000 before a retest of 6024/30. A break through here negates the H&S pattern and should lead to a test of the double top at 6085/95. On the way look for 6047 and above 6060 we should reach 6071.
Todays FTSE Technical Analysis:
FTSE could go for a test of the neck line of the head and shoulders mentioned in last week’s report at which coincides with the May lows so far at 5850/40.
This should offer good support again today. A break lower is very possible however and should target better support at 5816/00. Attempt longs here in the hope of a bounce. However if the market cannot find a bottom here today we could test 5769/66.
If we hold on to 5850/40 we remain range bound and could crawl back towards 5895/00 and then 5925/30. Above here look for 5965/75 and then 6000 before a retest of 6024/30. A break through here negates the H&S pattern and should lead to a test of the double top at 6085/95. On the way look for 6047 and above 6060 we should reach 6071.
I use a spread sheet to tell me where stop and limit are - I enter yesterdays HLC to get a pivot point for the day and then its worked out from there - I'm currently using 35% of atr between stop and limit with the exact positions of stop and limit being decided by the position of the BB relative to the pivot point. So today the system told me to go short - no long order - sometimes it'll tell me to go long and sometimes to place both long and short orders - if it told me to place both orders the R:R would be 1:1
Not sure i that makes sense - I can send a copy of the spreadsheet if you're interested - just send me an email address and I'll let you have it.
Not sure i that makes sense - I can send a copy of the spreadsheet if you're interested - just send me an email address and I'll let you have it.
Nice start to the week.
Bartlby's post above suggests the possibility of some more research - where a losing trade was taken and stopped out, what would be best response? - reverse immediately? take the opposing BB trade? trade if pivot breached in opposite direction? Ciould be worth looking at.
If ever you're concerned that SB can't make you money or you might find your account closed if it does, have a look at these encouraging role models (one of whom I know a little).
Bartlby's post above suggests the possibility of some more research - where a losing trade was taken and stopped out, what would be best response? - reverse immediately? take the opposing BB trade? trade if pivot breached in opposite direction? Ciould be worth looking at.
If ever you're concerned that SB can't make you money or you might find your account closed if it does, have a look at these encouraging role models (one of whom I know a little).
I'm sure with enough data we could do some proper back testing and find some answers - but in the absence of that (and my own lazy streak) we'll just have to paper trade until we've a clear idea.
Essentially what my spread sheet does is place a short order if the middle of the BBr is below the pivot by more than a certain amount, a long order if the middle of the BBr is above the pivot by more than that amount - if its between those values it places an oco. It also adjusts risk:reward - the assumption is that the further above/below the pivot the middle of the BBr is then the further out one can place a limit and the tighter the stop can be.
So the questions are - is the position of the BB relative to the pivot really indicative of the likely direction of the index and is it indicative of the likely distance of travel.
Answers on a postcard please.
Essentially what my spread sheet does is place a short order if the middle of the BBr is below the pivot by more than a certain amount, a long order if the middle of the BBr is above the pivot by more than that amount - if its between those values it places an oco. It also adjusts risk:reward - the assumption is that the further above/below the pivot the middle of the BBr is then the further out one can place a limit and the tighter the stop can be.
So the questions are - is the position of the BB relative to the pivot really indicative of the likely direction of the index and is it indicative of the likely distance of travel.
Answers on a postcard please.
