Big Ben on the FTSE100

The trend is weakening until we see another short squeeze.

Most European Index's have been trying to recover also.
 
Hi. Have any of you back tested this strategy manually or via an EA? If so what were the results? Would be interested to know.
 
Beggar me! Stopped out again!

I think the stopped out trades this week already cut below the longer term average performance and I can only put this down to the Middle East / North Africa geo-political situation.

I am carrying on trading BB but am reducing my stake to one third normal, until all on-going 'situations' in the region are resolved (if I had the chance I would also delay entry to 10am).
 
There was only 6 stopped out in 4 weeks now we've had 3 in a row! I may give up completely for this week as it's not really been a normal week so far.
 
I've been tracking this on my settings since 29/11/2010, and trading real since 31/12, and that's the first time it's lost more than twice in a row. Had to happen some time! Can we make it four in a row - if you pull out this week Brew you may miss the 2 winners. Who knows ??
 
That's a good point jimmc - I haven't seen 3 stoppped outs in a row until today. There were two in a row in September and two in a row in October, so it seems safe to conclude the market itself is behaving in an unusual way. Therefore, reducing risk by cutting position size or staying out seems the right response.
 
This game is all about reducing risk and keeping losses to a minimum and the odds don't appear to be in our favour this week. The rare three losses in a row not only shows that, it also does not guarantee a remaining two winners. Having said that, gambling is my downfall and I'll probably lack the discipline to stay out for fear of missing a winning trade.
 
hmm - you're both right. I actually exited manually today at -5, which in my notes I have marked down as 'irrational'. I also reduced my position size. Confusing times. I am definitely not a gambler brewski, (I think), but I think I will trade tomorrow. Amazing how 3 bad trades can knock the confidence.
 
Quote from pocrel in 'live calls'

i should have taken the advice of the article, if the stock markets are crashing and no sign of people moving to dollar then something has changed in the world

perhaps something deeper is happening, and time to step back :confused:
 
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The current lack of performance of BB is certainly out of character on the FTSE if the last 6 months charts and performance are anything to go by. If this is due to to Tunisia/Egypt/Libya/Bahrain, I have to take some consolation that it has taken such serious geo-political events to derail the system. Optimistic? Maybe: but surely we shouldn't let a week of bad performance outweigh 5 months of good.
 
brewski1984 said:
Sh5467, it's all in the thread, read it.
Click to expand...

Well I just scan read the whole thread and from what I can see you guys have only manually tested the BB method. You guys are also talking a lot about stop and TP optimization.

If you have this simple system programmed into an EA you can run this back 10 years and get some concrete stats. MT4 also allows you to run an optimization on parameters such as TP and SL levels.

I am currently working on an EA for my overnight breakout strategy which is very similar to the BB so if it can be modified I will share the results.

One thing I found bizarre in this thread are comments like 'I am going to step aside today because....' and 'the index looks bearish/bullish'. If this is a purely mechanical system then surely any judgement/emotion/gut feeling should be removed and the strategy traded with iron discipline. maybe I have got the wrong end of the stick.

my own breakout strategy has had 3 losses in a row this week but I know this is statistically insignificant as the changes of this happening are approximately 6% given any start point.
 
i'd be quite happy to do some back testing but i have no idea where to get data to load into strategy tester!

i missed out on getting my orders in today. accident on the roads caused a traffic jam preventing me getting in on time.
 
You're right sh, true BB is purely mechanical, with no account taken of newsflow, trends or anything else. However, whilst still entering BB orders at the v4 levels as above I have cut down my position size while current unusual market behaviour exists. And of course the designation of the current market situation comes from BB's results only, not from charts, commentators etc.

I'm sorry to hear that your own strategy is also being neutralised by prevailing conditions but it's encouraging to hear you seem to confirm we are in exceptional conditions.
 
tomorton said:
You're right sh, true BB is purely mechanical, with no account taken of newsflow, trends or anything else. However, whilst still entering BB orders at the v4 levels as above I have cut down my position size while current unusual market behaviour exists. And of course the designation of the current market situation comes from BB's results only, not from charts, commentators etc.

I'm sorry to hear that your own strategy is also being neutralised by prevailing conditions but it's encouraging to hear you seem to confirm we are in exceptional conditions.
Click to expand...

yes 4 losses in a row for my EURUSD overnight breakout strategy also. Just goes to show that with strategies like this with relatively small edges should risk 2% account max. If the worst happened and 10,11,12 losses in a row occurred you will still have c. 80% of you capital left and you would ride out the storm. risking 5% of account could cause a total wipeout.

If anyone is interested an EA of the big ben is already available in a public forum, see link below:

http://www.fxfisherman.com/forums/forex-metatrader/trading-systems/2698-big-ben-meet-little-ben.html
:|
 
I don't know how long this situation will continue, but as long as there are riots in any oil-producing state, I think small position sizes should be my order of the day.

These things happen when they happen and stop when they stop. Are there any signs it will stop at any given time on any given day next week? - No.

It actually seems rational after two consecutive losses in a non-discretionary system like this to increase risk to the maximum tolerable, as a further consecutive loss is very unlikely (possibly as low as 6%, see above). But what would be irrational would be to go way beyond the customary 2% guidance and risk wipe-out.
 
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