Big Ben on the FTSE100

Can't get to understand this message system on T2W, but here is a recent one and responses -

"congrats on your 5 stright victories! how many points did you make each month? would be interested in hearing.
to save me reading 91 pages, BB basically involves watching the 8am-10am range (assume 40pts) then at 10am placing a stop buy 4 points above the high with 40 point profit target and stop loss, and OCO linked to a stop sell 4 points below the low with again 40 point profit and loss targets?
where does the 4 points come from? 10% of the daily range?
And your stake size is total risk per trade divided by stop distance?
(So in this example £5 a point if youre risking £200 a trade and £2 a point if youre risking £80?)
What time do you close the trade if neither profit or loss targets are hit?
Really hope you have time to reply and hope i didnt miss anything here in your strategy.
Good luck for today/moving forward!"

I am now looking at v3 of the BB FTSE100 rules, as above. Naturally, as this has a 12pt target, wins will be +10pts (entry is BB H/L +/-2 pts, allowing 1pt for SB spread and 1pt to ensure price has breached BB limit, not just equalled it). Losses will be -15pts (12pts target +2pts to entry +1pt fopr SB spread). If you stick with older rules using the BB range to give target, wins will be about the average BB range: this has been 36pts so far in 2011: losers would be about the same, but allow for slippage in both cases.

I like to risk the same amount on every BB trade, as I can't see a way to reliably predict which is lower risk than any other. If I could figure that out, I would double up on the lower risk BB's but for now at least just adjust the £ per pt stake when entering SB orders so risk is always the same £n hundred.

If target (or stop) not hit by 4pm, I would close regardless. I don't think many BB's using a 12pt target and stop will be still running at 4.
 
Another message -

"Thanks for taking the time to reply, it is most appreciated.
I did my third trade today and broke even when I closed manually at around 16:30, is this what you found today? Finally are you using Big Ben just for FTSE or are using it on forex pairs as well. I believe that I read on the forum that you had been doing so last year but I have seen no reference for this year."

I did think it would be a good hedging strategy to trade on multiple markets, and after all, BB started on the GBP/USD pair. However, after trading FTSE, GBP/USD and EUR/USD late 2010, I found the extra two markets did not help performance and have dropped them.
 
Good work Tom, I think your idea for BB v3 is even closer to your original idea for the system - i.e. one that is simple to implement and that doesn't require a lot of screen time.
I was looking at the average favourable move following entry being triggered versus adverse move (think Curtis Faith called it maximum adverse/favourable excursion - pls correct me if that's wrong) in terms of the BB range. I agree that trading win rate for a lower target seems like a good strategy and that it becomes a 'safer' system, which suits me.
It looks like from trades that trigger, movement to half BB range is more than twice the number of trades that go on to hit TP target. And this rises to three times for 1/3 BB range.
Good luck
 
Many thanks cristiano -v3 rules got me a win today, and while 1 win is nothing on its own, it's always an encouragement to make a good start like that.

Actually, a closer target should achieve a higher win rate per week and aganst stops hit, but it gives away points, not wins. Under v3, your potential gain from a 12pt target will be 10pts, not 30-40-odd. If you trade always at the same stake, £x per point, this is a serious erosion of gain. But I view all these BB trades as being equally likely to hit target as the next one so always trade with a fixed risk in £ and adjust my stake per pt accordingly. Alright, with such a tight stop and target, it makes a slightly scary and possibly unfamiliar sight on my BB platform to see stake amount clicking up in tens of £, rather than £1 at a time, but your risk is known and you're protecting it with your stop derived from the 12pts target.

Just had a nice Chinese on today's proceeds. Always find a glimmer in every day.
 
How significant would adding 1 or 2 points to the target be to make it closer to a 1:1 ratio? I also won today and you're right about the slightly scary part of a higher stake, I'm sure I'm not at your level but still!
 
Well done brew, nice start to the week.

Stretching the target is a sliding scale I'm sure: so, it might be that each extra point has no effect on win rate from the one before as you push the figure back out towards the BB average (or beyond!). But eventually, a breakpoint will show itself.

Risk is my driver though, i.e. how little risk can I get away with?
 
Tomorton or Brewski do you use MSN at all? I'd love to talk to you about trading, i've recently moved from forex to trading index's, focused on DAX30, FTSE100 + SP500.

Use support/resistance with MAs + MACD, use OBV to give me a sense of the volume.

If so then PM me :) thanks.
 
Are you considering tightening the stop? I always thought a stop of around 15 was pretty tight on the Ftse?

Not much point talking to me MayZerG I've only started trading a couple months ago I pretty much know nothing lol. I'm learning from tomorton.
 
I started trading in October ;) So don't put yourself down, research all that you can, and if you seriously love trading and knowing what's going on in the world and what affects the markets, you will do well.
 
MayZerG - Don't use MSN, sorry, but I log in here every evening.

brew - Don't think I could tighten a 12pt stop. It is aggravating that I'm allowing 5pts difference between a winner and a loser, that's big. But I'm obviously counting on the win rate to easily compensate for that.
 
Hi all,

I've attached my spreadsheet that I've been using to test this. You can change the variables at the top to test different settings. (Please ignore the comments on the side unless you can learn from them - this is my private journal for later review - warts and all.)

I am currently using TP 11 and SL 10. This seems to produce the best results over the time I have monitored. The thing I like is that the win rate is much higher than normal BB - over 70%. Until very recently however, BB has had a higher percentage of pips per day win rate, i.e. overall BB made more money. However, the smaller settings were much more consistent. (My BB results are not calculated - just what I thought it might have made by closing at around 17:00 - 17:30 each afternoon, about when I can get home.)

I prefer this, as I am much happier to increase £ per pip with a more consistent result.

Hope this helps.
 

Attachments

  • BigBenFTSETesting.xlsx
    19.4 KB · Views: 181
Nice Jim. The results are consistant too if you compare trades from start of this year when you can compare your actual to the model and BB results.
I like the idea of higher win rate - less stress, even though I'm confident over the long run BB's original parameters have a positive expectancy, that seems to count for little when you take a loss :)
 
Good spreadsheet Jim. My results tie in with yours except for 11th Feb where my BB hit the stop for a 34.8 point loss, although luckily I didn't trade that day as it was a Friday.
 
Mr. G said:
On what basis?
Click to expand...

Even though FTSE100 gapped down on Feb 9th (most index's had a very rough start due to european inflation fears) it quickly recovered within 2 days.

At the moment its ranging between 6047 to 6074, so I'm just aiming to take this side of the trade.

BOE news and Claimant Count Change is not until tomorrow anyway. I expect FTSE100 to be quiet today. Barclays is helping push the FTSE anyway.

Having a pending order for DAX30 at 7390 also as I expect it to retest the 7422 high this week.
 
Maybe I should be waiting for Retail figures in an hour and 20 minutes, but that is a risk I'm willing to take.
 
I got stopped out today, upped my stake as well so makes me just that little bit more annoyed. I honestly think I've ruined this system the last 2/3 weeks lol, I know I need to see the bigger picture just seems I always lose more than I win.

Hope for better tomorrow!
 
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