Thanksgiving in US Thursday and Friday should also be very light as many US players stay away for the weekend. Market ranges will probably be restricted, reducing odds of hitting targets so I will not be taking any BB trades Thursday and Friday this week.
to sk1105
I close for profit when major trend turns, such as close for profit from long position in May as the market is changing. Well, i'm relative medium term trading so different from you BB.
to tomorton:
just saw your first post with strategy, are you still trading with ratio of 1:1? for me at least 3:1. sorry, didn't get chance to go through all the posts yet.
I close for profit when major trend turns, such as close for profit from long position in May as the market is changing. Well, i'm relative medium term trading so different from you BB.
to tomorton:
just saw your first post with strategy, are you still trading with ratio of 1:1? for me at least 3:1. sorry, didn't get chance to go through all the posts yet.
Yes, 1:1 risk:reward, using the 0800-1000 Big Ben range as the target/risk. The only exception would be where the BB range is less than 25% of the ATR14, in which case, target can usually go out to 3BB. I only feel sfae doing this after backtesting to see what the market usually does.
But when you think about it, what the market usually does is surely the key? The market doesn't know about or respect my capital protection stops or % stops or x pips trailing stops, it just does what it does becasue it has to do it. An average month for me on any given market would be 8 targets hit, 4 stops hit and 8 days where trade expired + or - at UK or US close without hitting either limit. Giving a net profit of 4 BB trades. So far anyway......
But when you think about it, what the market usually does is surely the key? The market doesn't know about or respect my capital protection stops or % stops or x pips trailing stops, it just does what it does becasue it has to do it. An average month for me on any given market would be 8 targets hit, 4 stops hit and 8 days where trade expired + or - at UK or US close without hitting either limit. Giving a net profit of 4 BB trades. So far anyway......[/QUOTE]
yes, I agree mkt does not respect our profit target. but the risk award ratio is basically put us in an advantage position in term of statistics. so if assuming our entries are random, we are still more like to win out.
what software do you use for back testing?
yes, I agree mkt does not respect our profit target. but the risk award ratio is basically put us in an advantage position in term of statistics. so if assuming our entries are random, we are still more like to win out.
what software do you use for back testing?
yes, I agree mkt does not respect our profit target. but the risk award ratio is basically put us in an advantage position in term of statistics. so if assuming our entries are random, we are still more like to win out.
what software do you use for back testing?[/QUOTE]
I know, the text books and market wizards always say a 1:1 risk:reward ratio is a recipe for random remuneration, don't do it. If I could back-test and prove a 1:3 ratio I would love to use it, but I don't find it's compatible with the other elements of Big Ben - using a 2-hour range break-out as key to entry and direciton. the original Big Ben article in some journal or other, 2004, did indeed set a fixed pip target, and this did not vary, regardless of the width of the BB range. Some people will feel better and stay focused better with a lower pip score per trade and better r:r ratio: but I don't know if it will bring a higher win rate when your stop is that much closer to entry. Worth testing, but not for me.
Software for backtesting? I wish.
what software do you use for back testing?[/QUOTE]
I know, the text books and market wizards always say a 1:1 risk:reward ratio is a recipe for random remuneration, don't do it. If I could back-test and prove a 1:3 ratio I would love to use it, but I don't find it's compatible with the other elements of Big Ben - using a 2-hour range break-out as key to entry and direciton. the original Big Ben article in some journal or other, 2004, did indeed set a fixed pip target, and this did not vary, regardless of the width of the BB range. Some people will feel better and stay focused better with a lower pip score per trade and better r:r ratio: but I don't know if it will bring a higher win rate when your stop is that much closer to entry. Worth testing, but not for me.
Software for backtesting? I wish.
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Interesting thread, I stumbled over it whilst googling "FTSE 100 ATR" lol.
I've also been looking at applying a Cable strategy to the FTSE, as I believe the FTSE is a bit better behaved than Cable when it comes to S/R levels etc. The strategy I'm looking at is the Hans123 from a few years back, where you enter on a breakout of the 5:00 - 9:00 range. Only just started, I'm using a 30 pip Stop Loss and typically taking one lot of profit at 1:1 and then trailing the SL at 30 pips. But I'm also mindful of S/R levels and the ATR and will pass on some trades.
Look forward to reading more on this thread
I've also been looking at applying a Cable strategy to the FTSE, as I believe the FTSE is a bit better behaved than Cable when it comes to S/R levels etc. The strategy I'm looking at is the Hans123 from a few years back, where you enter on a breakout of the 5:00 - 9:00 range. Only just started, I'm using a 30 pip Stop Loss and typically taking one lot of profit at 1:1 and then trailing the SL at 30 pips. But I'm also mindful of S/R levels and the ATR and will pass on some trades.
Look forward to reading more on this thread
Yep, same here. I've traded GBP/USD 19 times since 25 Oct, I'm down -175 pips on it. Though in fairness, I have managed some trades, don't whether the result would've been better or worse without my interventions.
Last week EUR/USD hit stop 4 out of 4 trades.
GBP/USD has been a poor performer over the last 20 sessions - 5:7 and 112 pips down on completed trades, plus 6 expired negative, 1 expired positive. So -175 might not be too bad when its average BB range is 63 pips.
Give it some space: this is a 1:1 r:r mechanical strategy with no minimal TA / intellectual input.
Meanwhile, 8:7 on EUR/USD (didn't trade this today, big range) and 5:2 on FTSE100 (today's trade still running but +ve.
Give it some space: this is a 1:1 r:r mechanical strategy with no minimal TA / intellectual input.
Meanwhile, 8:7 on EUR/USD (didn't trade this today, big range) and 5:2 on FTSE100 (today's trade still running but +ve.
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My Hans123 variant of Big Ben did well yesterday, 5:00 - 9:00 range on FTSE was 5626/5573 = 53 pips. Trade triggered at 11:00 bar at 5630 (nice break of swing high entry) with 30 pip SL. Profit taken at +30 pips with first lot, still in trade with second lot with SL at entry of 5630. Monday and Tuesday also made profit, will post details later
Thanks tomorton and steve79 for confirming that it's not just me doing something wrong with GBP/USD.
I've only really been looking at that and FTSE100 so don't have a large range of markets to "balance things out".
Plus for me the FTSE has been no trade for the last few days. I was going to ask to check your figures against mine but I've just realised that problem - on my spreadsheet I've accidentally overwritten the formula calculating the BB range! (think I must have put the ATR in it one day) Hence my sheet had been showing no trade.
I've only really been looking at that and FTSE100 so don't have a large range of markets to "balance things out".
Plus for me the FTSE has been no trade for the last few days. I was going to ask to check your figures against mine but I've just realised that problem - on my spreadsheet I've accidentally overwritten the formula calculating the BB range! (think I must have put the ATR in it one day) Hence my sheet had been showing no trade.
The week in review -
I didn't trade the FTSE yesterday as BB range at 56 was too close to the 80% ATR level at 60 to be worth the risk on such a quiet day - half-day session in New York after Thanksgiving - and i was cautious with the other two markets. Still, a small profit for no effort is a nice start to any weekend.
This week, the charts suggest a win rate of 6 out of 10, with the other 5 trades expiring a bit up or a bit down.
Over the last 4 weeks (including the phantom London session of 25/11, Thanksgiving, on which results were 1 Stopped Out, 1 Target Hit, 1 Expired, so a worthless effort if you were in the market) performance is 18:16. A very slim winning margin if you're with the 1:1 r:r plan.
Onwards and upwards.
I didn't trade the FTSE yesterday as BB range at 56 was too close to the 80% ATR level at 60 to be worth the risk on such a quiet day - half-day session in New York after Thanksgiving - and i was cautious with the other two markets. Still, a small profit for no effort is a nice start to any weekend.
This week, the charts suggest a win rate of 6 out of 10, with the other 5 trades expiring a bit up or a bit down.
Over the last 4 weeks (including the phantom London session of 25/11, Thanksgiving, on which results were 1 Stopped Out, 1 Target Hit, 1 Expired, so a worthless effort if you were in the market) performance is 18:16. A very slim winning margin if you're with the 1:1 r:r plan.
Onwards and upwards.
Wish I'd done that earlier as my GBP/USD also triggered a sell. Both were in profit for a while now GBP/USD has shot up and hit SL. And FTSE not looking good.
neil
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Well done that man
Seriously though, maybe a variable approach ( bit of TA etc) with big ben as the heart would keep you in profit and give you continued flexability?
Anyway - your award for today:cheesy:
neil - I'm sure you're right, and sometimes, for the sake of prudence, I pass on a BB signal or exit a trade early on TA indications. But I see this as a poor preparation causing conflict with my own system, when what I would really admire would be a system that absorbs all such eventualities before entry. Think of Sun T'zu, when he spoke of knowing who would win before battle started.
