Bear Market almost ready to resume ....... March 12, 2019 posted at ET

[fibo_trader]

How far does US real estate have to fall? Ditto for world markets. Canada, Australia etc., already underway. FAR, FAR. Who can afford such stupidity?

One stat reveals the absurdity of San Francisco’s pricey housing market

An absurd amount of homes cost $1 million or more

www.marketwatch.com

Trump problems escalate now. .....

Art of the loss — what blowing a billion tells us about Trump

The disclosures rip a Titanic-sized gash in the myth Trump has spent a lifetime peddling, namely that he’s a big-brained, super deal-making genius

www.marketwatch.com

 

[fibo_trader]

I left ET last year on the grounds of their total bias towards Trumpism.
Narrow and nauseating redneck Nationalism imho

Right on. I avoided the Politics forum altogether. Avoided Chitchat forum too. Trading forum was for me

 

[CertainWay]

I view international markets to get a better idea of BEAR as this is to be a worldwide phenomenon. Chino has been in a BEAR for ages. Ghost towns, streets and building are in a bullrun. When the 200-month ema breaks, Chino will not have to worry about Donald no more as they will be in a freefall.

Europe Dow rally from December lows is over? See daily chart trendline bust and large red bar now on 200-day.

London FTSE big red bar after trendline break now approaching 200-day. RSI is showing a support break so watch out.

For my BEAR CALL to work, allmajors gots to crash, there will be no exceptions, all US, UK, DAX, FTSE, CAC40 the works. all gotta charge south. If they don't then call is wrong.

Short of an outright BEAR I'm taking this one step at a time by looking at a correction to 50% retracement FIRST. Then we see.

Hi
Are you trading only from the short side based on your analysis?

What markets do you trade and on what time frame?
Thanks
CT

 

[fibo_trader]

As a one off then yes as it is not classed as an advert or commercial promotion.

My 2 ET threads with calls/trades. All made well in advance.

Warning: Wallstreet language is allowed to a certain extent by Baron (owner). Fighting, attacking, humiliating is a way of life at ET. I'm guilty of it too as I had to defend myself. However, I have no complaints about beating up or taking a beating, a heavy beating as markets put me deep in red. Only complaint is the grossly unfair cop, Magnum (Magna).

Reversal Shorts - Top in | Elite Trader

EEM short 43.97 stop 44.86 AXP short 116.68 QQQ short 191.2 SPY Short 294.38

www.elitetrader.com

 

[fibo_trader]

My original ET thread that started it all - same thread title here

Bear Market almost ready to resume. ..... | Elite Trader

SPY short entry confirmed 279.2 today ...... total short is $4.83 mil 6 tranches remaining to place short as soon as the nice uptrendline from...

www.elitetrader.com

 

[fibo_trader]

Is IYR a short? I'm hesitant. From Dec low it is 5 minor waves up. 4/22/19 low takes out the 3/20 low = lower low, then lower high into May 1st.

From 4/15/19 top it looks impulsive down but dropping to 1H it looks like an abc, i.e a 3-legger which implies a higher high.

Topping formation in progress, slope dropping drastically. Another singer is that it is just shy of a solid hit at 423.6% taking 1st wave extension.

I've put a trendline on it. Break that, I'm going short.

 

[fibo_trader]

Shocking truths about the ignorance at ET - never would I have known that such sloppiness exists among traders had I not stuck my neck out and been ready to take shots to the carotid and severe punches to the stomach. All worth it though. A Phd in 45 days

On April 30, Just 1 day before the or a top in the SPX, I warned them as best I could, as best I know how, with just simple tools, so simple that even a kid with a ruler knows what I'm talking about. Is it any wonder then that the stats reveal 95% traders lose and lose consistently but keep coming back for more punishment in the markets?

Here are the 2 Vix charts I drew upon for my assessment of danger aborning for the elites, the actual post without charts follows next .................. Elite traders were oblivious

 

[fibo_trader]

Hi
Are you trading only from the short side based on your analysis?

What markets do you trade and on what time frame?
Thanks
CT

Yes Sir, its all short side due to the fact that IMHO we are in a BEAR market. Therefore I entertain only Shorts. Time frame is strictly Daily with analysis based on Monthly/Weekly. Positions are held for weeks/months.

If wrong in call for BEAR, I will be dead soon. I will take my losses and retreat to a BEAR cave and nurse my wounds. No excuses will be made as I went into this absolutely AWAKE, ALONE based on my own analysis, no gurus. Nobody to blame.

 

[fibo_trader]

Shocking truths about the ignorance at ET - never would I have known that such sloppiness exists among traders had I not stuck my neck out and been ready to take shots to the carotid and severe punches to the stomach. All worth it though. A Phd in 45 days

On April 30, Just 1 day before the or a top in the SPX, I warned them as best I could, as best I know how, with just simple tools, so simple that even a kid with a ruler knows what I'm talking about. Is it any wonder then that the stats reveal 95% traders lose and lose consistently but keep coming back for more punishment in the markets?

Here are the 2 Vix charts I drew upon for my assessment of danger aborning for the elites, the actual post without charts follows next .................. Elite traders were oblivious



View attachment 262537







View attachment 262538

See quote for context, then see below how I warned them on page 5 of the provided ET thread link a few posts back. You see, one cannot afford to be dooey with the VIX. It has a direct correlation to the Herd brain. It is the best leading indicator in existence.

Here is the entire post, followed up by later posts verifying the called high probability breakout


Vix refuses to go lower than 8.56
Vix alltime historical LOW occured at 8.56 on when? Yep, as far back as November 24, 2017. That's 2017 amigos. Then came 2 higher lows.
4 contact point trendline from Nov 2017 you guessed it, sloping upward. Doji on 4/17/19
Down trendline from 12/21/18 now being attacked ferociously.
RSI same ditto trendline = breakout!!!!!!!!!
Macd ditto TL = breakout!!!!!
Not to mention the same pencil/ruler Vix breakout signal on 1/16/18 when the 200-day got simultaneously hammered breakout. Surely you remember Jan 26, 2018? The BIG TOP in US/world. Vix Trendline called it 10 days earlier than all markets. Sentiment nails it every damn time.

Creme de la creme from Vixie is the projectile fired from extrapolating 2/6/18 top + 8/9/18 low + 12/24/18 top to give a precise Egypt Pyramid calculation 61.8% on April 17th, 2019, just 7 trading days ago.

Of course niemand was or is awake to notice these things.

 

[fibo_trader]

Focusing on SPY rally from Dec 2018 low to May 1 high.


Even if I am wrong in calling an epic BEAR, we are still dealing with waves regardless bull or bear. So let's say that December low was the start of a new bull run. We are now in a correction. Corrections should go to 38.2% - 61.8%. Sometimes for a wave 2 it can go to 78.6%.

So I expect the corresponding numbers to be 271.56, 264.36, 257.17, 246.84. The 50% mark (264.36) is a common retracement level but if a new bull then this would be a wave 2 retracement for which the most common is 61.8% (257.17)

My initial entry short was 279.2 with subsequent entries above 280 and last one mid 290s so average would be let's say to keep things simple w.r.t. the graph of SPY shown below, about 283. Therefore to break even, a totally useless endeavor, SPY would have to drop down just a few more points to above the 23.6% retracement mark.

Note some beauty here: 1st downswing halt was at 9.1%, 2nd halt at 14.6% ..... both Fibonacci. Next level is 23.6%. the 200-day lies at 276.47, a magnet.

Life or Death? I'm here for either one.

 

[fibo_trader]

The 4 Dow Jones gunfighters (Asia Dow, Europe Dow, Australia Dow, Global Dow) with the 5th Dow, the Mighty US Dow Jones hissself ................... how will BEAR take these cats out? What will be his tactic? One at a time or first 3, then 2? No, it can't be. BEAR will save the Mighty Dow for last - that will be a pure one on one.

But I believe he can knock out Asia Dow, Europe Dow & Aussie Dow in one gunfight .................... (Asia Dow & Europe Dow already leading the charge south). they came-d in on 3 horses so he asked them if they'd brought one for him and they replied, "no, looks like we're shy one horse" - BEAR in classic dual cylinder wave 3 style replied, " no, you brought two too many"

 

[fibo_trader]

Global Dow heard what happened and decided to ambush unarmed BEAR with a sidekick from New York. No can do.

 

[fibo_trader]

The Mighty Dow Jones hisself comes to see BEAR. (BEAR's reply, "only at the point of dying = Dow at 4500)

 

[fibo_trader]

Haven't seen any comments in the Media lately about the Trump Bump (= stock market boost due to Trump). Could be because NOBODY expects a drop or a correction or scoff scoff, jeer, a BEAR. What does that say about HERD sentiment? Complacency as was measured by the low low low low VIX

But when the bump is neutralized, the stuff is going to go sky high as war will be the only thing to regain glory. War is big business and revives the economy.

For the record I am against ALL war, all bullying the browns and blacks, all of it. The Iraq war killed millions on a false pretext but nobody went to jail. It stinks. Never can or will be able to forget that woman, somebody's Mom/grandma who charged out into the streets screaming in agony after both her granddaughters were killed by shrapnel. Too much for me. I couldn't sleep for days.

If I've called the BEAR as I have been expecting, its going to get a whole lot meaner, I mean plumb mean.

Hide and watch

 

[fibo_trader]

Nikolai & King Kong & Singapore dropping as per my expectations. Nik's gone below the 200 & sliced thru' 23.6% retracement of the christmas rally wave. Kong whisker away from the 200-day and 38.2% & slicing thru' the Macd 0-line with RSI(21) calling a bear move (=<40)

Europe stoxx 50 23.6% & on 200-day, Europe Dow Jones below 200-day & 23.6%. Next station 38.2%? UK FTSE on the 200-day as Macd and RSI trendlines are busted and Price original uptrendline busted too. UK on its way to station 38.2%

EEM diving with gaps, has just taken out the previous subwave low, 200-day left in the dust and resting comfortably on the 50% station. RSI<40

Chino A 600 is on the 200-day after juicy gap down recently. Dig this, gap down in a 3rd wave indicates a 3rd of 3rd, let's see how true this is, bears watching. Just a tad above 50%.

 

[fibo_trader]

Mighty Dow Jones arrives at 23.6% station rrrrright now, magnet pulling him down to 25337 (200-day. RSI(21) dips below 40 for the first time since Christmas. Transports dipping below 23.6%

 

[fibo_trader]

The Mighty Dow Jones getting a boost from the 23.6% level. See the long tail on the candlestick on daily? Pressure is downward but its lovely to see Nature's Math grid working so nicely. The Global Dow Jones is also on such level + 200-day. The rocket boost northbound is therefore significant. Of course all this is in real time and there is no telling how much residual elasticity resides in the coefficient of Restitution of these supports. For the Nasdaq, Qs & SPX its the 14.6% providing some boost. Will it last?

 

[fibo_trader]

XLF

Keep eye on this one. On trendline support now, NO breaks on Macd or RSI(21), therefore compared to the others the rally from Christmas is still technically sound.

 

[fibo_trader]

Yeah, dig it, the entire investing HERD which as you all know operates as a single unit totally devoid of individuality and operating on pure reaction devoid of an cerebral creativity ...... where do you imagine this baby now sits? She has arrived at the 50% retracement of the wave on King of Kings aka VIX. Now dig this: markets are down, not as much as earlier but down nevertheless but Vix is showing a nice juicy big red candle. Aha, deeg eet Mahn, this be the Math of the Universe aka the 50% level, which though not a pure fib, operates as one. The Herd brain hit it and retreated = relief = Ntwadumela (the lion who breathes with fire) is not hungry, so they can relax for a bit.

At ET they would ask me"what are you smoking?" hahahahahahaha

I just play the song, "I don't care" ......... thanks to Hillary and ex president Billy Clinton for bringing the truly fine Konpa music of Ah-ee-tee (Haiti) to the USA. You see, Poor people, that's where the heart is, the real juice is, always has been always will be. Greatest generosity comes from poor people not from rich. Billy had his honeymoon there. I'm glad he did. Riches from there are now pouring in and buying all of it

 

[fibo_trader]

For entertainment only ......


Who is Ntwadumela?

He be me, fibo_trader, a native Vix lover who got past ET cop, Magnum for the 6th time with this new nick of course. The nick is ntwadumela (lion who breathes with fire)

I ran into this Indian trader at ET from Hyderabad, India - named Padutrader, an amiable fellow indeed. I read his posts, such a terrific fellow, such humor, such forthrightness, but he was having limited success with his trading, dealing only in nickels and dimes. I was compelled like never before to help him

But ET cop Magnum and poster side-kick cop "destriero" could not tolerate anybody liking me, especially telling me they love me like padutrader did. I know-ed they cott on it was fibo_trader so I was prepared for yet another ban.

But something good came-d out of it. I will help this Indian trader, padutrader. I will earn big points in Heaven for this. Money be damned.


See the interchange ..... India, what a country! Such magnificence! Goa, India? Anjuna beach? God's home.

Anybody living in India | Page 2 | Elite Trader

only 1 hour per day analysis preps nothing like trading.....once you get the idea You are too kind and i am ready to meet you or connect.

www.elitetrader.com