Bear Market almost ready to resume ....... March 12, 2019 posted at ET

[fibo_trader]

GBP-USD 1H trade be alert for reentry to Short position. 1H chart below shows where short was closed out. Notice the 3-wave move down after that? that would make the rise a C-wave which as we all know will complete the rally, i.e. an a-b-c. then dominant 1H trend resumes down. I don't bother with Longs in a downtrend, I leave those for the buzzards, they have the right to eat too.

Chart_20190521_2

tos.mx

 

[fibo_trader]

UK Brexit hocus-pocus all resides here .... GBP-USD monthly. Next target is 0.9528. This is a high probability (there are NO certainties in this biz) target if the current 61.8% target FAILS. Monthly/Weekly/Daily downtrend lines are red, blue, white. White trendline barely visible.

Some observations:

From the 2007 top we have a 3-wave move down thus far on monthly. That could be the entire expected drop. But here's what bothers me - Wave C is only 61.8% of A. Highly unusual if true. This is why I expect the southbound move to continue to C = 100% x A. Since this bothers me, I will reverse my thought-ing if daily & weekly trendlines are taken out topside.

 

[fibo_trader]

So how to handle this uncertainty about whether the Pound has dropped all she ever will against the USD and reverse course and fly north and shock the daylights out of everybody? We don't want to get cott on the wrong side of this. Wrong side is where? hahahahaha, its always where the crowd is. I'm a loner, can't stand crowds. so I look for a purposeful dodge by the instrument. So, how to play this?

Stay short until Daily trendline says to stay short. Then on breakout, reverse course and go long and play it by ear.

Those who count the Pound out sooooo easily are likely to get slaughtered. Champs don't die easily. I don't want to be one of them.

Daily chart downtrendline in white is therefore the key for trend surfers like me. Take that out topside and I'm not thinking short no more until proven later otherwise.

 

[fibo_trader]

Repeat from post #55


What am I watching now, May 20, 2019? SPX Drop from May 1, 2019, if a wave 1 down, then wave 3 down is to start soon. If right, it will be Paradise for me. If wrong, dyin ain't much of a livin.


Who the Hell knows if I'm right? I surely don't. But I still gots to prepare in case I am right. so what the heck is a Wave 3?

A wave 3 is a full throttle move by BEAR, a full grown male in his prime. The crash of 2007-2009 was handled by his cub and still crippled the banking system. Imagine what this full grown male can/will do? So just an alert to be ready just in case. If I'm wrong, lafffter is the best medicine as my losses will skyrocket. I don't mind.

 

[fibo_trader]

Dow Jones daily chart HEAD & SHOULDERS formation???? Right shoulder forming now, not perfect proportion but .... The monk said it takes a heck of a lot of juice to slow a heavy locomotive down. He said that such slowing down is manifested as Topping pattern of some sort. The neckline is perfect. Volume must dry up on the RS. What am I smoking?

Minm target for a H&S = neckline to Head project downward. For shorttimers that's the next trade... hahahahaha will it work? It would mean the 200-day FAILS to support Jones.

 

[fibo_trader]

Bitcoin trader aficionados: Drop from December 2017 killed 'em all. Now their ghosts are gambling with the milk money for current rally LONG. Not me. I'm waiting for the Short signal. Could I be wrong not to play this LONG? Do birds fly?

for safety place a trendline under RSI(21). Due to the steep rise in PRICE, a Price trendline is difficult to draw on Daily. If RSI (21) creaks and cracks and moans and groans, take some or all money off the table. Otherwise, stay LONG.

 

[fibo_trader]

Bitcoin:

My reluctance to go LONG - why? Monthly 5 waves up complete = All Hell breaks loose. It already has as of December 2017. Now the rally is pulling them all back in, giving them renewed hope. Many are saying the BEAR is OVER. But here's the thing ..... a BEAR of such magnitude after a 5-wave move up will have Bitcoin aficionados hate Bitcoin so much they want nothing to do with it as the true bottom of the BEAR approaches. These cats have never really gotten that much less gung ho about Bitcoin.

Of interest is to note that while the whole world was trying their darndest to determine where Bitcoin would offer a bottom, wavers like fibo know-ed the approximate location of where the drop would end. See yellow line in chart. Its the location of the previous 4th wave of lesser degree. All markets tend to drop first shot here after a 5 wave move terminates. So for Dow Jones watch all 4th waves of lesser degree if the BEAR gets underway. I believe 2016 low and 2009 low are prev. 4th magnets.




Note RSI red dot in chart. Its where Bitcoin bellowed to Fibo_trader that weakness of an exponential nature had appeared as the strength in the muscles of Bitty collapsed on the very first red bar on monthly.

 

[fibo_trader]

Bitcoin trade update for Long fellows:

see daily chart with wave count. Assumption is rally is countertrend so it should be an A-B-C. The "C" component will have 5 internal waves. OK, its clear visible on the chart. Can I still be wrong? What if its a new bull and the A-B component is actually a wave 1 & 2? Then it would make the current numbering as Wave 3 on the top which means one more higher high yet to come. If countertrend assumption is correct, then rally should be over. (updates for this week missing in chart data supplier is slow)

 

[fibo_trader]

Bitcoin rally update ...................

Wave mechanics:

Place Fibo grid on Wave A, i.e. )% & 100%. Then drag the grid to the "B" low. Then observe the perfect on the button hit at 423.6% at Bitty's current top. This is telling us that wave C = 4.236 x A

Since there is no reasonable trendline possible on Price's sheer vertical move, I suggest the TL on RSI(21) in lower panel. Already cracking. Cracks = warnings of weakness.

Exit or keep staying in Long. Your decision. I'm waiting to go short.

Good luck

 

[fibo_trader]

Bitcoin gurus are letting it rip. Entertainment

 

[fibo_trader]

More entertainment from guru#1. This is the same guru who said, "buy when there is blood in the streets, SELL when euphoria and optimism abounds" (not exact quote)

And what is he doing now in an atmosphere of complacency (Vix = low low low) and optimism and euphoria? Buying.

Go figure.

Right-click/send to/ recycle bin.

Solo Trader + his own thoughts + his own method beats all else

 

[fibo_trader]

Las Vegas play for contrarians:

I'm going LONG Deutsche Bank when/if > 7.77 Not for the feeble. Can you find even one cat who is positive Deutsche Bank? Extinct. I'm going where the water tastes like wine.

Expected rapid return on investment is 500% on rocket move north to 200-day ema @ 9.66, then to possible 17.7 (200-wk ema) OR 200-monthly @ 43.7


Analysis or in this case, Anal-ysis shown below on Daily chart.

Green line is the 200-day ema, blue is weekly trendline, red is monthly and white is Daily trendline. Play is based on breakout above the Daily trendline.

REASON for the Vegas trip? ...................... see the numeral 4? That sideways move a-b-c-d-e is a 4th wave. Now dig this. Fourth waves are "penultimate" ....... therefore the current wave down on daily is the final or terminal wave for this particular sequence, i.e. its a wave 5.


Its a whole lotta fun to stay at the YMCA when one is broke but one gots to try to move to the Ritz

 

[fibo_trader]

GBP-USD 1H trade be alert for reentry to Short position. 1H chart below shows where short was closed out. Notice the 3-wave move down after that? that would make the rise a C-wave which as we all know will complete the rally, i.e. an a-b-c. then dominant 1H trend resumes down. I don't bother with Longs in a downtrend, I leave those for the buzzards, they have the right to eat too.

Chart_20190521_2

tos.mx

Done.

For the shortimers' next GBP trade, run an identical trendline down thru' the 1H May 21 rally top 1.2813. then extend it. Stay short until broken. Bad luck if it breaks too soon, my sympathies, but generally these trades go on for quite a while. For longtimers trend surfers stay focussed on Daily . Wait for the next rally to behold a nice fat bum, then run your next downtrendline thru' the top of bum and extend. That is your line in the sand for daily TP on shorts. This might go on forever, hahahahahaha, so what, its all good, longevity is good, chaps.

And if you forget every damn thing I said that's OK too but never forget that when I show an A-B-C on any timeframe, the peak of the "C" wave becomes a significant point in the realm of TREND MECHANICS that ALL trends will honor with divine loyalty. when such is broken one then entertains the fact that a higher degree wave has emerged.

At 3:44 left front dancer in yellow. straight 10

 

[fibo_trader]

XLF

Keep eye on this one. On trendline support now, NO breaks on Macd or RSI(21), therefore compared to the others the rally from Christmas is still technically sound.

A crack in the spine aborning as trendline breaks. She was a 20th century fox, since her mind left school she never hesitates, she won't waste time on elementary talk. I'm going to pray for her for if she fails then we gots to bail 'em out again and again but this time it is already called bail-in.

 

[hatemypips]

Nobody is likely interested in how I got myself into such deep losses but hopefully I'll learn something from my mistiming folly/stupidity

My assessment all along was that BEAR began Jan 26, 2018. That's 2018. Despite the marginal higher high in Octber 2018. So, when the crash hit into the Christmas 2018 lows with such power that BEAR markets were being declared left & right, I not only knew that it was THE epic BEAR since the 1700s, at least one degree of trend greater than Great Depression of 1929, but that the subsequent rally was a Bear Rally for SURE because no BEAR could be such a wimp as to maim and then revert to BULL so rapidly.

This is what got me into deep trouble that caused mistiming. And it gets worse. I sure as heck saw the clear perfect hit at Fib 161.8% on Christmas lows. That should have alerted me to be EXTRA cautious about future Short re-entries. Rest is history. Mistiming. Terrible, terrible. And the worst part is I consider myself to be a market timer. A solid kick in the butt is what I got.

😀

How much did you lose? Btw, just keep in mind - Fed gradually downgrades inflation outlook so Fed-driven market bubble will continue to live for some time. Project S&P 500 at 3K in 3Q

 

[fibo_trader]

How much did you lose? Btw, just keep in mind - Fed gradually downgrades inflation outlook so Fed-driven market bubble will continue to live for some time. Project S&P 500 at 3K in 3Q

Positions were all open as in opening post and still are. SPY losses were posted at ET by a member at 220k at one point. He was wrong. They were higher & went higher still. And if my call for BEAR is wrong we will revisit those losses and I will close out and go on a one year trip round the world with backpack to cool off. Where will the money come from for the holiday-of-disgust? From EurUsd, never ever had a losing trade of consequence here. Drawdown in SPY has been examined thoroughly by me and it boils down to one thing - violated my system by jumping the gun. Will such violations occur again? Do birds fly?

Thought about quitting this magnificent game. And go back to what? Back to my eeeeeeeezy hi income boooooooooooooring Sales closer business = DEATH of a different sort, sooooooo incredibly dull and boring.

I will have a more positive attitude if/when SPY goes below opening post 279.2 and clearly charges south with some nice big bars. Only then will I consider this high stress game worth it.

All my trades even if positive don't mean doodly if SPY fails me - that analysis was/is the best I could/can do. If it ain't good enough, then I'm in the wrong game. Will have to bow out gracefully and just leave 500k in EurUsd cycled thru' life in every trend long and short and forgeddabout the whole shabang.

 

[fibo_trader]

All GREEN. Closed out ALL SPY holdings today in real time @ 281.44

And take me disappearing thru' the smoke rings of my mind
Down the foggy ruins of time
Far past the frozen leaves, the haunted frightened trees

 

[fibo_trader]

Drawdown in SPY has been examined thoroughly by me and it boils down to one thing - violated my system by jumping the gun. Will such violations occur again? Do birds fly?

Lesson is now cast in stone. But I'm a careless fellow. I might screw up again. There are no guaranties in the thick of emotion. Hey, but they say, "don't trade with emotion" - "yeah, kiss my a**!"

In detail my folly exposed as I smack myself over the head with a saucepan ............................ the rally in SPY from the December lows did not have a coat hanger anywhere until March 19, 2019. So the ONLY conceivable trendline would be under this point. But wait - one must at least have a WAVE LOW verified by Mama-Tum (momentum) - see Macd in lower panel - that low come-d on March 28. And you would still have to wait till april 8 to draw the trendline because you want to make sure its a new upwave rising from the ashes of the wave low. An entire new life can begin from a wave low. Its akin to hitting rock bottom and digging deep and finding a stable datum and then boom, you fly upward - just as the mighty US Dollar did in March 2008 when even the lowly reprobate currencies like Philippine peso were laffffing at the champ as every mother's son currency was raping him with relish and disrespecting him like there was no tomorrow

Had I done this and this is what I always do when I'm not a dummy, I would have went-ed short SPY on April 18 @ 290.02 or if I waited for RSI to pop I would have gotten a better deal at 291.81

see charts which were already posted days ago with the smart trendline with the benefit of hindsight ....................

 

[fibo_trader]

Just talking to myself here so don't mind me. I take my Lessons quite seriously. ..................




Very careless of you young man, the seasoned currency warrior said to me @ 2:42

 

[fibo_trader]

Flipside of the hi stress game of trading? Give it away and make someone's decade.


Doll from LOS (Land of Smiles aka Thigh-land) will drop dead in ecstasy when she sees 70k USD in her bank account tomorrow as a gift. She insisted and insisted claiming she had no fear of loss that I invest her 3k dollars she had saved (three thousand). She gave me her bank info with Siam Commercial Bank and said, "I will pray at the Wat (Temple) (she is Buddhist) that you win and will accept any profit you consider I am worthy of" Nobody talks like this. Sure as heck no fox who can stop a man dead in his tracks with just one look. She always made coffee but one morning as she brought me a cup to bed she looked deep in my eyes and asked, "who are you?" I told her I'm a single guy who has no intention of being ever tied down. Her reply, "I will wait for you no matter how long it takes"

I thought about this over the last few weeks. Even if I never want to settle down, I will take care of this girl for the rest of her life. She can keep her job but will never have to struggle no more - not as long as the stock market does not kill me first.

Pleasure from giving moolah away? Transcends that of making it by a dozen universes. No contest. SHE made my trade worth it.