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Bear Market almost ready to resume ....... March 12, 2019 posted at ET
- Thread starter fibo_trader
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fibo_trader
Hahahahaha, London FTSE delivers 3 long-legged candles in a row on daily. Today's is a doji, quite understandable as London is trying to get back above the 200-day ema.
Now here's the thing .... London & a few others have triggered their Head & Shoulder Topping pattern. But London had a HAMMER on the neckline on Friday and interestingly, very curiously as if in a message to Fibo, closed ABOVE the neckline. I got a damn headache trying to figure this out.
Only thing I got for anybody LONG is to place a catastrophic stop under the neckline low because if she reverses and takes that out it becomes a 3rd of Wave 3 waterfall decline, and funerals will pile up fast, fast, fast.
London 5-min. chart shown below -
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fibo_trader
Finally, we get to the thread title play, SPY this is the only one important to me. all the other trades are easy stuff. But this one with SPY is the real deal because I have called a BEAR market of epic proportions that will take out the 2009 low with aplomb.
So staying in line with my call for a BEAR, how far can this SPY bear rally go and then reverse and continue down to take out the low?
1st chart 60-min. see Fibo grid in white. We hit 261.8% already. If there is no permanent reversal here we are going to 423.6%.
2nd chart 60-min. see Fibo grid in olive. We hit 61.8% already. I have the other levels marked as 100%, 161.8%, 261.8%. My best guess would be 161.8%.
So staying in line with my call for a BEAR, how far can this SPY bear rally go and then reverse and continue down to take out the low?
1st chart 60-min. see Fibo grid in white. We hit 261.8% already. If there is no permanent reversal here we are going to 423.6%.
2nd chart 60-min. see Fibo grid in olive. We hit 61.8% already. I have the other levels marked as 100%, 161.8%, 261.8%. My best guess would be 161.8%.
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fibo_trader
Its going to be a beautiful town, T2W. Best regards
fibo_trader
fibo_trader
Hi fibo-trader. I made stock index calls on this forum in the past. The attachments are the proof. I know there will be a tremendous short later this year. I don't know about right now. I don't think short is the way to go at the moment unless it is a short term trade play.
Attachments
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fibo_trader
T2W as of today has a new name in my book, "Sweet Water"
Its going to be a beautiful town, Sweet Water, a place where a family can actually build something of value. Gets 5 stars rating IMHO
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Negra Modelo, my #1 go to beer worldwide, kicks Corona's butt. Heinekin and German brews Henninger, Binding, St.PG etc., etc.? Kiss my ass, not even close. Budweiser? watered down urine.
quickie update might not make any sense, drunker than a skunk
Partying continues, I'm a gone case.
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see Post #223 charts.
Haven't changed a thing. SPY has arrived at my targets of 423.6% & 161.8%. Even the trendlines have not been changed. Only one trendline has been added for the current rally. Its a screwball of a trendline as there is NO coat hanger. Therefore my best guess is that we could have a nice correction here on 1H on Monday etc., and form a nice bum and then take out the today's high to give us a rally Top, and then head to Argentina on a bullet train, hahahaha./
Disregard please, I'm drunk.
Its going to be a beautiful town, Sweet Water, a place where a family can actually build something of value. Gets 5 stars rating IMHO
------------------------------------------------------------------- xxxx -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Negra Modelo, my #1 go to beer worldwide, kicks Corona's butt. Heinekin and German brews Henninger, Binding, St.PG etc., etc.? Kiss my ass, not even close. Budweiser? watered down urine.
quickie update might not make any sense, drunker than a skunk
Partying continues, I'm a gone case. -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
see Post #223 charts.
Haven't changed a thing. SPY has arrived at my targets of 423.6% & 161.8%. Even the trendlines have not been changed. Only one trendline has been added for the current rally. Its a screwball of a trendline as there is NO coat hanger. Therefore my best guess is that we could have a nice correction here on 1H on Monday etc., and form a nice bum and then take out the today's high to give us a rally Top, and then head to Argentina on a bullet train, hahahaha./
Disregard please, I'm drunk.
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fibo_trader
If the current rally top works out the way I've called the BEAR market in thread title (mistakes notwithstanding) then this rally is the C-wave up to complete Wave 2 up. Next is Wave 3 down. If I am right here, and how could I possibly be, I don't know doodly, there will be weeping and gnashing of teeth and the FED will be under awesome pressure as the the Dow will need some real magnificent heroin shots to prop its weak ass up.
Once a wave 3 down gets underway, there is a portion during it which is called the "moment of recognition" where investors/traders finally say, "its here, the world is ending". That portion of the wave is the 3rd of wave 3. The sharp U_turn in the mental state of the US Media will go into a negative bullmarket - the brunt of that will be fired at Donald Trump. You see, his Trump bump will evaporate in a jiffy.
I dislike it very much when mobs gang up to beat up on one guy. I don't tolerate such crap. And the ones doing the beating up are cooked themselves. Go figure.
Anything else other than this happens, I am dead wrong. I'll be the first one to admit it right here.
But my CALL remains as-is, no doubts, no changes, no nada.
I am still FLAT. When I short the SPY, I will post it even if stoned on Negra This time I will use a STOP nearby though. The treachery of BEAR is incredible, just sheer poetry to me how he can be so deceptive AND have sooooooo much POWER and verve.
Once a wave 3 down gets underway, there is a portion during it which is called the "moment of recognition" where investors/traders finally say, "its here, the world is ending". That portion of the wave is the 3rd of wave 3. The sharp U_turn in the mental state of the US Media will go into a negative bullmarket - the brunt of that will be fired at Donald Trump. You see, his Trump bump will evaporate in a jiffy.
I dislike it very much when mobs gang up to beat up on one guy. I don't tolerate such crap. And the ones doing the beating up are cooked themselves. Go figure.
Anything else other than this happens, I am dead wrong. I'll be the first one to admit it right here.
But my CALL remains as-is, no doubts, no changes, no nada.
I am still FLAT. When I short the SPY, I will post it even if stoned on Negra
This time I will use a STOP nearby though. The treachery of BEAR is incredible, just sheer poetry to me how he can be so deceptive AND have sooooooo much POWER and verve.
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fibo_trader
Good stuff, 4x, welcome, bring in your ideas/charts, let's see what you got.
Don't be shy. Make some CALLS here. Start with your call on SPX or London FTSE or whatever Index you follow. It opens the door to huge improvements in a world of traders that have long since been brain dead due to reading/applying the same losing books, known to Fibo as the HERD BOOKS = never let them escape to think outside the box. 95% lose is the result and has been for eons.>>>>> I don't think short is the way to go at the moment <<<<<<<
$1 bet says ALLLLLL your brethren here at T2W & ET are thinking the same as you or you are thinking the same as them. Its always like this at every suspected major turn in a bull or bear. The warm fuzziness, stick-together, don't-be-a-schmuck glue that binds the HERD members kills and maims the dissenter(s). Nobody can escape this: going on for eons. Fibo's Forum-based Rule of Tops/Bottoms (that's why I love ET, high volatility = ferociously bullish at TOPS and attack and kill and maim any bear in a heartbeat with insults, degrading comments and other stuff - at bottoms they are wimps to the nth and terrorized to such a degree that most have split from the market already): = in essence defining the Beta Male in all real life aspects
(1) If even a small percentage of Forum members think the same as Fibo about market direction, Fibo will instantly reverse course and go the other way. (2) Fibo wants as near unanimous one-directional consensus at Forums (Beta Male Central) as it can get, as in October 2007 top, March 2009 bottom, 2015 intermediate top, Jan 2018 top and now which I believe though higher is the same overall TOP. When he gots this he takes the big swing. Gets buggered sometimes? Yes
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fibo_trader
Herd Mentality:
A tendency to follow even when following leads to terrible results.
In a crowd (Herd) a man descends several rungs in the ladder of civilization. Isolated, he may very well be a supremely cultivated and cultured individual, but in a crowd he is a barbarian. (Best example of "barbarian" angle is ET)
A tendency to follow even when following leads to terrible results.
In a crowd (Herd) a man descends several rungs in the ladder of civilization. Isolated, he may very well be a supremely cultivated and cultured individual, but in a crowd he is a barbarian. (Best example of "barbarian" angle is ET)
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fibo_trader
Herd Mentality:
Warren Buffet's instinctive application: Enter when there is blood in the streets. Exit when there is euphoria. (Violated at ALL investing/trading forums everywhere like there is no tomorrow, in fact shockingly violated)
Warren Buffet's
"Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget rule No. 1." Buffett personally lost about $23 billion in the financial crisis of 2008, and his company, Berkshire Hathaway, lost its revered AAA ratings.
Warren Buffet's instinctive application: Enter when there is blood in the streets. Exit when there is euphoria. (Violated at ALL investing/trading forums everywhere like there is no tomorrow, in fact shockingly violated)
Warren Buffet's
"Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget rule No. 1." Buffett personally lost about $23 billion in the financial crisis of 2008, and his company, Berkshire Hathaway, lost its revered AAA ratings.
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fibo_trader
Herd Mentality:
What would happen if Warren knew how to draw a straight line? Why of course he'd have saved $23 billion in the crash of 2008 by texting Fibo for a weekly chart of the S&P500 so he can see the yellow trendline. Then when he receives the text from Fibo that says, "sell Warren, sell now" ...... he sells and does the unthinkable at Fibo's pushing = goes Short. Then shocks the daylights out of everyone again by precise timing buying a boatload of stuff on April 10, 2009.
Fast forward to 2017. Warren texts Fibo saying, "Amigo there is euphoria in the air, lots of it, should we SELL?" Fibo replies, "no Warren no, the euphoria is only the signal to clean your fancy 2-gun rig and get ready - do nothing just yet, stay Long"
Then in Nov 2018 it come-d. The straight line on weekly broke. Text shot off to Warren, "SELL all now, dump it all"
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Fast forward to June 2019 ................................ Warren is so shy to let Fibo know that he has viiolated his own rule and is buying up a storm in Apple and others even though there is YOU-FORIA all over the place and the very same trendline that spurred his exit in Nov 2018 is still broken and weak.
He knows if he calls or texts Fibo he will get an earful so he doesn't
SPX weekly
What would happen if Warren knew how to draw a straight line? Why of course he'd have saved $23 billion in the crash of 2008 by texting Fibo for a weekly chart of the S&P500 so he can see the yellow trendline. Then when he receives the text from Fibo that says, "sell Warren, sell now" ...... he sells and does the unthinkable at Fibo's pushing = goes Short. Then shocks the daylights out of everyone again by precise timing buying a boatload of stuff on April 10, 2009.
Fast forward to 2017. Warren texts Fibo saying, "Amigo there is euphoria in the air, lots of it, should we SELL?" Fibo replies, "no Warren no, the euphoria is only the signal to clean your fancy 2-gun rig and get ready - do nothing just yet, stay Long"
Then in Nov 2018 it come-d. The straight line on weekly broke. Text shot off to Warren, "SELL all now, dump it all"
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Fast forward to June 2019 ................................ Warren is so shy to let Fibo know that he has viiolated his own rule and is buying up a storm in Apple and others even though there is YOU-FORIA all over the place and the very same trendline that spurred his exit in Nov 2018 is still broken and weak.
He knows if he calls or texts Fibo he will get an earful so he doesn't
SPX weekly
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fibo_trader
I'll tell you why the magnificent Fibo has NO excuses for this thread call. If wrong, there is just no way to justify the error in CALL. That's how serious the CALL is. The Fibo got no way out of this one. None, nada, zip. What it would boil down to if wrong is that BEAR/BULL are telling me, "Fibo, there is more work required, dig deeper, brother, dig deeeep, go deep undercover"
Why do I say this?
Because the WORLD ex USA chart looks like this: the drop from April 17th is a clear 5-wave signature footprint of BEAR. The wedge in yellow aka Ending Diagonal Triangle is also nice. The wave count of the rally from Christmas is oh soooo sweet and divine, a magnificente, genius diversionary tactic by BEAR
How the heck could I be wrong?
Yeah dig it! Its a bit*h.
World ex-US monthly
World ex-US daily
Why do I say this?
Because the WORLD ex USA chart looks like this: the drop from April 17th is a clear 5-wave signature footprint of BEAR. The wedge in yellow aka Ending Diagonal Triangle is also nice. The wave count of the rally from Christmas is oh soooo sweet and divine, a magnificente, genius diversionary tactic by BEAR
How the heck could I be wrong?
Yeah dig it! Its a bit*h.
World ex-US monthly
World ex-US daily
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fibo_trader
Gold trade refresher:
Post #122, called the totally unexpected move north on Gold. Sentiment played a big part in that call as usual. Fellas started hating gold, getting pissed off with it, called it vile names, disappointment was rampant. To me it smelled of just an intermediate level turn likely, nothing major. That still means a good trade is likely. WE sure as heck got a nice trade. $50 profit in the bag fast fast fast
Post #s 156, 161, 185, 193, 191 cover my other thoughts/updates on Goldie.
So what to do now? See post #193 where I said to exercise some caution around 1347 because of a major Fibo level. We are there fellas.
Take 80% profits and let the rest run with stop right under 1H purple trendline shown.
Post #122, called the totally unexpected move north on Gold. Sentiment played a big part in that call as usual. Fellas started hating gold, getting pissed off with it, called it vile names, disappointment was rampant. To me it smelled of just an intermediate level turn likely, nothing major. That still means a good trade is likely. WE sure as heck got a nice trade. $50 profit in the bag fast fast fast
Post #s 156, 161, 185, 193, 191 cover my other thoughts/updates on Goldie.
So what to do now? See post #193 where I said to exercise some caution around 1347 because of a major Fibo level. We are there fellas.
Take 80% profits and let the rest run with stop right under 1H purple trendline shown.
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fibo_trader
Such a pleasure it is for me if it is true that the Englishmen here are making good profits. They showed me a good time in SE Asia as they had set up the communication centers for information about visas and business and other stuff sooooooo damn nicely and efficiently, very impressive. Good rapid access to information of all sorts. We had more than one thing in common but the creme de la creme was the video they introduced to me below .................... I'm a soccer fan anyway but these guys are fanatics
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fibo_trader
Post #210 on EurUsd trade; reminder: FLAT. Don't want to trade right now. Want to focus on SPY.
But keep in mind Euro has just about arrived vicinity of 200-day ema. Drawn like a magnet to Jan 10/2019 high (1.1569) which almost coincides with one of my downtrendlines in red. Also right there at around 1.1585 is a 261.8% Fibo level. Euro wants to go there. Euro's prize would be to get to the previous 4th wave high zone of Sept 24/2018 at 1.1814. Can you dig the beauty of the Euro? This previous 4th wave zone is right at the 50% retracement level of the entire drop from Feb 16/2018.
Just look at where the top of this wave was. Feb 16/2018, right? Now look just to the left for the nearby almost equal top. See the date? Jan 25th, 2018, hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah, the day before the general worldwide stock market top including that of the USA
Bloody hell, this Euro is exquisite. I mean can you dig it? Trillions going into it so the HERD is really into it, so the waves and Mathematics are absolutely stellar. She has no 2nd place contender.
I need a drink, Man
But keep in mind Euro has just about arrived vicinity of 200-day ema. Drawn like a magnet to Jan 10/2019 high (1.1569) which almost coincides with one of my downtrendlines in red. Also right there at around 1.1585 is a 261.8% Fibo level. Euro wants to go there. Euro's prize would be to get to the previous 4th wave high zone of Sept 24/2018 at 1.1814. Can you dig the beauty of the Euro? This previous 4th wave zone is right at the 50% retracement level of the entire drop from Feb 16/2018.
Just look at where the top of this wave was. Feb 16/2018, right? Now look just to the left for the nearby almost equal top. See the date? Jan 25th, 2018, hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah, the day before the general worldwide stock market top including that of the USA
Bloody hell, this Euro is exquisite. I mean can you dig it? Trillions going into it so the HERD is really into it, so the waves and Mathematics are absolutely stellar. She has no 2nd place contender.
I need a drink, Man
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fibo_trader
sorry guys, Gold chart error a few posts back, will correct manana, hit the sack now
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fibo_trader
As promised amigos here's the correct updated Gold chart that was posted yesterday. Here's another thing I should have done for emphasis - should have squished the chart a bit so you could see the projection grid to the left starting from the rally low on August 16th, 2018 = last year. This is important because that is the wave low, not May 2, 2019. I drew an additional grid from May 2. We have to wait a few days to see the usefulness of this particular grid. But the one to the left has already given us 2 glorious hits of importance.
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fibo_trader
Gold: As with the others mentioned last week Wednesday I am FLAT, so no trades L or S.
I don't got no interest to trade right now so I back off completely but still very much am in the game. FUN? Oh baby there's plenty
I don't got no interest to trade right now so I back off completely but still very much am in the game. FUN? Oh baby there's plenty
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fibo_trader
They say its dangerous driving. They don't know nothing about the danger in trading, hahahahaha. Death by going over a cliff due to miscalculation in a curve at high speed? hahahaha, nothing compared to death in trading at high numbers. Laffffffable really LOL
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fibo_trader
For my friend who hates me, ET sponsor, bone
Tell Beta Male leader, "destreiro" to come visit and we can do the trading challenge right here in this thread. It will be FAIR here, no cops to handcuff me and taser me. It will be a fair fight. Tell Des he is allowed to bring his entire army, you included. But Fibo will fight ALONE. Come on bone, its time to stop being a wimp.You can do stuff like this BITCOIN trading guidance for your clients? Dream on, chief. Take this back to ET starting from post #66, 67, 68,, 69, 70, 120, 121. And now this one replies to #121
Updated chart here. And reminder bone, I am not in the trade, am FLAT as stated Wednesday last week. But if anybody took my play, a play from Mr. Nobody who is sooooooooo thoroughly pleased to remain NOBODY, they made out like bandits. Nothing makes me happier. Unlike you, I got the memo from THE MAN, "give Fibo give, your coffers then will never be empty"
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