AUD/USD Weekly Swing Top Expected

[Forexmospherian]

PAUSE formation warning.

Today (4/7) did not move below the 4/4 low (which would have confirmed 4/4 as a daily swing top and potential weekly top). Rather, it formed an INSIDE BAR.

When you have an INSIDE BAR that follows a higher-high bar, we call that a PAUSE formation.

Usually if a market wants to turn, it turns. Simple as that. But if a market struggles to confirm a daily swing top (not making a lower-low), this often indicates the 'bears' have yet to take control (thus bulls still have it).

4/7 is an important date. So with an inside bar here, we cannot just assume an immediate drop.

While the 'weekly' cycle turn is officially centered for week ending 4/4 (last week), this week would only be 1 weekly bar late of the expected time period.

So here is how I handle such scenarios:

1. Because I'm in expectation of a weekly swing top during this time period, I won't even consider the buy side.

2. Because of the PAUSE formation, I would not just jump in but instead sell at a break below the 4/4 low assuming the 4/4 high is still intact when this occurs.

I would agree with your comment above - even though I was still buying last night - although taken out of a stop in profit at 9264 by a couple of pips.

Its peaked again so far just before the European Opens at 9294 and above 70 and 80 I am still keen to take more scalp buys - to see if we can crack over 9300 again

ATM - ie 7 10 am UK time I have the AU session bullish - but if we cannot crack over 9300 and 9310 - then all will change again

I certainly would be looking at more sells under 70 and 45 /50 - but to me the short frames will always take priority above a weekly or monthly for direction - simply because change starts from points of time and I always look for them on the tick and one minute.

Will update during the day

Regards


F

 

[Forexmospherian]

AU - 4 hrs later at 11 00 am UK time

Well it did crack 9300 and 9310 and made a new high so far at 9341 - approx 1 hr ago

I think its important here for longer term traders to understand that intraday trading can be extremely profitable - but only when you know what you are doing

I have taken several scalp buys so far above 9285 and one was converted to a NPGT - ( ie down to 30% stake with stop in profit from 9296

From one 5 pips stop - by NPGT ( no pain gain trade) as made so far over 40 pips - ie a RR of approx 8

Two of my normal scalps on full stakes have made RR's of 2 and 3.

So for me the idea of weekly or monthly charts and needing wins of over 300 or 500 pips for RR's of say 3 or 5 - are just inefficient and more for investment trading rather than retail trading to make money.

AU for me now - i will move my NPGT stop up to 9305 to give it ample room to try higher

No over 9350 and 60 - and then i will just look at taking profit again and then might be scalp sell time this afternoon in the US session.

Above 9317 still session bullish

GL

Regards


F

 

[deco101]

Tied up by line of work today - so hard to focus and place trades. However, as of London open Aussie and Kiwi were Long as currencys - so clearly no shorting today. Looks like Euro was getting sold off.

Unsurprisingly Gold was up.

Was looking to buy the Loonie but DXY was negative for me so held off.

I still do a weekly report on markets to get that long term feel.

 

[FDateTrader]

Long-term feel

I still do a weekly report on markets to get that long term feel.

I'm not adverse to taking intra-day trades, as those are what I do the most of.

However, I like to align my intra-day trades with the higher-time frames to be sure I'm getting more wind in my sails.

Looking at the daily and the weekly time-frames is my first check of these markets, even though I may enter off a 240min or lower chart.

 

[Forexmospherian]

Hi guys

AU after the Opens as tried back up again - with the present high at 9386 - its now testing that area again with price at 82.

For me atm its a scalp buy above 70 and supports then from 45 to 55 seem to be intact for now

As I am typing at 9 23 am UK time - we are now just posting another high at 9387 - so if we keep above say 72 on any pullbacks you would think a try over 9400 might be on the cards

Under 70 scalp sells and then its if 45 -55 can hold or not for any further drops

 

[FDateTrader]

Update on events.

Keep in mind that the numbers I am posting actually apply to the Australian Dollar FUTURES contract, as that is what I apply FDate cycle analysis to. Since AUDUSD obviously tracks (directionally-wise), confirmation on the futures side can be translated to the forex side.

As this thread originally started from, a WEEKLY cycle top is due in AD. The exact period landed within the week ending 4/4 (last week), so we're now in the +1 week zone (one weekly bar late). Naturally this increases the odds.

Putting cycle time aside, pre-calculated resistance is calculated at around .9356 (futures) which is the 75% retracement level. This intersects with resistance at the same price level using time/price squaring (90-deg squares). This intersection applies only for this week (and viewed on weekly time-frame chart).

Above that there is .9485 for 87.5% retracement and .9458 to complete a 270-deg move up from bottom of week 1/24/2014. I would not even consider this range UNLESS a close occurred above the 75% level mentioned above.

These resistance level alignments with this week as cycle turn point in time provides an alert to the high probability that AD$ is likely ready to start pulling back (correct) after its recent run from 1/24 till now.

On a MONTHLY note, seasonally APRIL often puts in a higher monthly high and has already done so. MAY is seasonally bearish, with JUNE often the culminating of any decline and neutral-bullish seasonally overall by the close of the month.

And I'm sure most reading all this KNOW not to expect the market to stop dead exactly on resistance price levels pre-calculated, although how nice that would be, eh?

At the time of this posting, AD futures is at .9343 for this week's high. 13 ticks. Small stuff especially for the weekly time frame.

 

[Forexmospherian]

AU update end of day

Well we did stay with the HH's and HL's on todays intraday charts and after the main news tonight made over 9400. After any pullbacks - i think if we can stay above 9355 - 60 area - we will try higher again tomorrow

Need under 9350 and then 30 and 9300 to be holding on to any scalp sells or dropping more buys

GL

Regards

F

 

[fxstrategist]

Audusd

In my opinion, I think that the AUDUSD may still keep going higher and try to reach the 0.9500 level, which is an important round number resistance that coincides with the 76.4% Fibonacci Retracement of the most recent drop on the weekly chart.

 

[Forexmospherian]

Hi Guys

Approx 7 30 am UK time and before the London Open - the AU as fallen from its high around 9461 - approx 100 pips and presently at 9375.

For more scalp buys I need back above 9388 and 93 as 80 -85 could provide both dynamic and horizontal resistance. Under 9360 would be scalp selling again down to 45 -50 and under there 9330 area

Will update during the day

GL guys -


Regards

F

 

[Forexmospherian]

Update at 10 30 am UK time on AU -

For me now 9420 to 40 is an important area

If we breach above these two prices again - more scalp buys for another high

Staying under 40 could still be a LH posting and whilst price is under both - I would be looking at scalp selling again to fall under 9400 and 9370 again

Will update later on as well

Regards


F

 

[Forexmospherian]

AU - after Midday on Friday 11th

Interim LH now posted at 9427 - nearly half way between the critical 9420 - 40 area,

Price since as dropped under 9420 and 9400 and down to 9387 - a nice scalp sell with supports now again at 9375-80 and under there 9360 -65


Regards

F

 

[Forexmospherian]

4 00 pm UK time

AU - in a BTTZ for me - between 9440 and 9360 - 80 pips that is scalpable - but really can be played with to just trick bulls and bears

We had the LH but need under 80 and 60 to make a LL.

Above 9420 - 30 and 40 favours higher - and under 9400 and 9380 favours lower

Regards

F

( PS - BTTZ - a Bermuda Triangle Tease Zone or NTZ - No Trade Zone for swings )

 

[robert11]

The price is moving up within a bullish channel on the daily chart. We will be looking for short/sell opportunities across the market if the bottom of the channel is broken down.

http://forex-fa14.blogspot.com/

 

[fxstrategist]

Audusd

The AUDUSD has not been able to break above the 0.9300 level and there is still a good probability of it visiting the 0.9200 level from where it may bounce to the upside.