Best Thread Arabian's *serious* Thread

[kimo'sabby]

A chart is just visual representation of information that is on the tape - there are many different ways you can use it, some have more merit than others.

True. Everyone is looking for something as a reason, but there are definately somethings that matter more than others. Or at least contain more reality.

 

[DashRiprock]

What are your views on this, or anyones for that fact? I'm just trying to inject a little bit of reality into the whole 'voodoo charts' outlook.

Cheers.

It depends how you use them i think.

like I use volume histograms to help me see when alot of volume is going through a particular range of prices - for me, that is useful and tangible information about what is happening in the market.

I also use graphs to help me keep track if where we are now in relation to where we were before. sounds stupid, but i do like to know where we are in terms of yesterdays high and low etc...

Both of these bits of information you can take directly from the tape, but it requires a great deal of concentration. There is now the technology to do that for you, so I think it prudent (in terms of trader resources) to apply it.

But there are other ways of looking at the information from the tape, such as by plotting bar charts and then applying indicators, or looking for patterns in the tape. This is what I think most traditional TA trading is about (entry here, target here stop here) and I think trading from charts in that way is a little misguided.

 

[robster970]

I'd be interested, not that it would be much use to me, but i would be interested.

Three of us now.

 

[kimo'sabby]

This thread is changing my perspective. Take Arabian, he is an experienced professional trader, works in the city, h'es been trained by dedicated specialists in the stirs market.

Putting myself in Arabians shoes, i think i would find an alledgedly profitable SMA Xover system pretty much f*ckin amazing...to say the least.

I can definately see the funny side.

 

[scose-no-doubt]

What do you have on all those screens, rab? Do you have a dedicated set up in terms of info and feeds you're watching or do you chop and change?

 

[arabianights]

It depends how you use them i think.

like I use volume histograms to help me see when alot of volume is going through a particular range of prices - for me, that is useful and tangible information about what is happening in the market.

I also use graphs to help me keep track if where we are now in relation to where we were before. sounds stupid, but i do like to know where we are in terms of yesterdays high and low etc...

Both of these bits of information you can take directly from the tape, but it requires a great deal of concentration. There is now the technology to do that for you, so I think it prudent (in terms of trader resources) to apply it.

But there are other ways of looking at the information from the tape, such as by plotting bar charts and then applying indicators, or looking for patterns in the tape. This is what I think most traditional TA trading is about (entry here, target here stop here) and I think trading from charts in that way is a little misguided.

Yup, I find the volume histograms very useful (although they're built into my ladders so I never really considered them as charts)

As for the rest... yeah I agree with that...

 

[Splitlink]

But there are other ways of looking at the information from the tape, such as by plotting bar charts and then applying indicators, or looking for patterns in the tape. This is what I think most traditional TA trading is about (entry here, target here stop here) and I think trading from charts in that way is a little misguided.

It is misguided in the sense that one does not have a clue about what is going to happen next. However, I'm afraid that I am unable to accept any information, except price, as reliable. A chart tells us that. Reliable orderflow information is, probably, available to AN because of his professional status (that's me being diplomatic and not wishing to rock boats 🙂).I'm not so sure about the rest of us, though.

 

[HowardCohodas]

As I've mentioned before, I have trouble interpreting many kinds of charts. Bold strokes seem to get through, but subtitles often do not. Perhaps that's why I've studied decision support technology so extensively (mostly in the business world). Our CEO preferred numbers, not graphs. I don't know whether he had the same problem I do or his preference was based on something else. He often belittled his subordinates for preferring graphs.

The study of decision support systems design is a companion to the design of user interfaces. In the days of less flexibility where designs were "one size fits all" some users did well and some poorly. When it came to senior level executives, we frequently built customized decision support tools for their personal preference. With today's technology, the user has great flexibility in building their own DSS screens. Flexibility of choosing from numbers, graphs, graph analysis, screen positioning, etc, is helpful. Sometimes users are so befuddled by the bewildering flexibility, they call on a DSS specialist to help them design their screen. Oh well. 🙂

This finally brings me to the discussions of charts in general, certain charts in particular, and chartless trading. Each of us has different gifts in the way we interpret information and make decisions. We should experiment with different approaches until we find one or more that feels a part of our thinking/action process.

 

[DashRiprock]

It is misguided in the sense that one does not have a clue about what is going to happen next. However, I'm afraid that I am unable to accept any information, except price, as reliable. A chart tells us that. Reliable orderflow information is, probably, available to AN because of his professional status (that's me being diplomatic and not wishing to rock boats 🙂).I'm not so sure about the rest of us, though.

I dont know, I think you might be suprised. Particularly with futures, the price, size, and nature (hit, lift, iceberg, collection of stops, reload on the bid etc) of all the trades going through the market are available to anyone with an internet connection and the necessary feeds/software. Only a fraction of that information is on a graph.

And of course there are services like ITC that can squawk flow when they get wind of it, I think the rest will be down to contacts in the market. There isn't an "order flow" indicator or piece of software that tells you what the orders waiting to come to market are.

(as a side note, I think it important to mention that most retailers trade forex, which of course has no information like this. I remember having a conversation on here about how spreadbetters should fill some particular order after a gap - it would be worthwhile for any trader looking at a double sided auction directly just to see how trade actually occurs)

Of course nobody knows what is going to happen in the future... imagine it like sitting in a car with a blacked out windscreen - which is a better indicator of which way you are going, looking in the rear view mirror or looking at which way the steering wheel is pointed? Protracted analogy but I hope you get the gist.

 

[arabianights]

Here's a pic of ITC btw... it has a written squawk and a spoken one too... as squawks go I haven't tried firstcall but I would say ITCM>Ran>Sigma (Batsey)

 

[scose-no-doubt]

how much is that?

 

[kimo'sabby]

I had one bet this morning on the ftse. First place i went to was the hourlies, i plotted two prices, one above and one below the immediate action. Then i went to the one mins, i fancied the upside, and i chose a break price. The price broke and i run the stop and i made some dollar.

To do the above i used SR, or at least what i thought was SR.

But it is just a bet.

Who is taking more of a gamble, me or arabian, and why?

 

[DashRiprock]

firstcall are OK, they put a bit more colour sometimes on what they are squawking (good) and dont always read out w@nk headlines (like Kraft are bringing out a new slice of cheese or whatever), but sometime they can be a bit sloppy on the releases*

*but i dont think they are really trying to be fastest either, they are good analysts.

jmho

 

[arabianights]

how much is that?

circa 200 a month, give or take

 

[Splitlink]

I had one bet this morning on the ftse. First place i went to was the hourlies, i plotted two prices, one above and one below the immediate action. Then i went to the one mins, i fancied the upside, and i chose a break price. The price broke and i run the stop and i made some dollar.

To do the above i used SR, or at least what i thought was SR.

But it is just a bet.

Who is taking more of a gamble, me or arabian, and why?

Congrats! I got it wrong to-day. 🙂 I don't know which is the biggest gamble but I think that what AN does is too difficult and time consuming for me. Of course, age comes into it. What I do is the habit of years. Learning new ones, now, is hard.

 

[donaldduke]

I had one bet this morning on the ftse. First place i went to was the hourlies, i plotted two prices, one above and one below the immediate action. Then i went to the one mins, i fancied the upside, and i chose a break price. The price broke and i run the stop and i made some dollar.

To do the above i used SR, or at least what i thought was SR.

But it is just a bet.

Who is taking more of a gamble, me or arabian, and why?

Arab is looking to earn the spread on his trades and that might be a large part of his overall profits.

We are more 'bet and hope' traders, we dont really exploit the spread at all, we are looking for a probabilistic edge based upon recurring patterns in the market.

 

[kimo'sabby]

Arab is looking to earn the spread on his trades and that might be a large part of his overall profits.

We are more 'bet and hope' traders, we dont really exploit the spread at all, we are looking for a probabilistic edge based upon recurring patterns in the market.

Exactly. I think it's important for people to understand what you have stated.

 

[kimo'sabby]

Congrats! I got it wrong to-day. 🙂 I don't know which is the biggest gamble but I think that what AN does is too difficult and time consuming for me. Of course, age comes into it. What I do is the habit of years. Learning new ones, now, is hard.

tbh, split, right or wrong was not the issue, it was the information based process that was. Not only this, but take into account technology also.

 

[DashRiprock]

Arab is looking to earn the spread on his trades and that might be a large part of his overall profits.

We are more 'bet and hope' traders, we dont really exploit the spread at all, we are looking for a probabilistic edge based upon recurring patterns in the market.

I think it important to add that STIRS, under normal circumstances, move very little on a tick by tick basis.

 

[kimo'sabby]

I think it important to add that STIRS, under normal circumstances, move very little on a tick by tick basis.

It looks like a really easy market to trade (depending upon spread). But, i can only go off the chart that Arabian posted.