anyone trading cable 2013 - lets roll

[tar]

Perhaps you should become the new official statements verifier. Here's my current position profile. I am gunning for no rate change follow by rally.

99% there will be no change in rates "check betfair" , the market is looking for Carney's speech earlier at the day and if there is any surprises in QE + the ECB and the Euro ...

 

[tar]

i wonder what you are going to do when the inevitable happens and price spikes hard against you. for example just what is your plan if we see 1.55 print this week, let me guess, buy more.

With Oanda he can trade at 1 unit instead of 10000 or 100K ...

 

[BeginnerJoe]

99% there will be no change in rates "check betfair" , the market is looking for Carney's speech earlier at the day and if there is any surprises in QE + the ECB and the Euro ...

I think it's all in the price already. The only risk I see is if they do a fake dump. That could be quite scary. But I have plenty of ammo left.

 

[cablemonster]

With Oanda he can trade at 1 unit instead of 10000 or 100K ...

yes I am aware that there are bucket shops out there that will let you trade stupidly small size. I suppose the point I was trying to make was........... ahhh forget it I really cant be ar5ed.

 

[bbmac]

Just think how much you could have made ....oh I don't know...selling ? in an obvious downtrend ? In buying and holding against the obvious bearish conditions on the way down you are basically saying - '... I am right - the market is wrong...'

I too have bought on the ways down - but in all downtrends I assume the following - that each contra trend move is a pullback/extended pullback until opa on successively higher t/f's tells me otherwise,' (and vice versa,) and so my contra-trend targets have been set appropriately.

Whatever the case I hope you end up in profit on these positions.

G/L

Perhaps you should become the new official statements verifier. Here's my current position profile. I am gunning for no rate change follow by rally.

 

[BeginnerJoe]

The mean defeats all, including spikes.

 

[bbmac]

The mean defeats all, including spikes.

mean reversion ?

 

[BeginnerJoe]

Just think how much you could have made ....

Your argument would be more convincing if you show us how much you have made. The simple fact is it ain't that easy.

 

[BeginnerJoe]

mean reversion ?

That's my trade secret and can't tell you.

 

[cablemonster]

all aboard.

 

[the hare]

Just think how much you could have made ....oh I don't know...selling ?

Joe, check out his type 2 trend re-entry set up. Seriously, It improved my profits by about a factor of 10 !

 

[tar]

Joe, check out his type 2 trend re-entry set up. Seriously, It improved my profits by about a factor of 10 !

And how much it improved your Sharpe ratio ?

 

[Shakone]

The mean defeats all, including spikes.

What happens if the mean moves below all your current entries?

 

[the hare]

And how much it improved your Sharpe ratio ?

I honestly couldn't say without going back through old records. It's probably 4 or 5 years since I traded those kinds of methods, and I was more of a gunslinger back then, but also far more in tune with the markets I was trading so swings and roundabouts.

I just think a decent trend re entry set up is a useful tool to have in the box, and BB's version is as good as any I've seen.

It's not often I give advice, but thought this was an appropriate exception. Then again the improvement might have been due to random chance (rather than being given some sound advice after studying these kinds of set ups for a decade)

 

[BeginnerJoe]

Joe, check out his type 2 trend re-entry set up. Seriously, It improved my profits by about a factor of 10 !

No evidence of that at all. You couldn't even call out a trade without worrying about having 10 loosers in the row. If you wanna play, call them out or you get no respect.

 

[the hare]

No evidence of that at all. You couldn't even call out a trade without worrying about having 10 loosers in the row. If you wanna play, call them out or you get no respect.

I will point a couple of pertinent points.

1) I am not worried about 10 losses in a row, or 10 losing days in a row, or even 10 losing weeks in a row.

2) You would be wise to take BB's advice

 

[bbmac]

I'm very happy that it remain your secret

G/L

That's my trade secret and can't tell you.

 

[bbmac]

Which way will this 30min triangle/pennant/thingy resolve ? up or downside break ?

G/L

 

[cablemonster]

Which way will this 30min triangle/pennant/thingy resolve ? up or downside break ?

G/L

I think you know the more likely scenario

 

[BeginnerJoe]

I think you know the more likely scenario

I wish people would call it out rather than do it retrospectively.

Here, my call is side ways. No reason for any move until the interest rate event.

What happens if the mean moves below all your current entries?

First, don't be wrong. Second, know you are wrong when you are wrong.