JP1966 said:I certainly dont trade the midnight figures as I like to sleep! Sterling more than any other currency seems to like to move when it is in the mood. It especially likes a dump! Of course sometimes it is more reactive -at the moment, with everyone undecided on what is happening to interest rates, then every figure seems to have a bigger impact.
The other thing I have noticed recently is the impact of data has changed over the past few years. I think this is the impact of day trading from non-banks. Previously if a figure came out and you say only get a 10 pip move in the expected direction then the likeyhood was that it would reverse rapidly and go the other way. Now in the minute after a release people who have traded the figure and got it right take their profit and hence there is a retracement. There then is a second wave of tradint to take it in the direction you would have expected.
Look at the PPI this am although the same has been the case many times over the past year or so. (although until this week currencies have not responded to figures for the past two weeks for probably the first time since October 2004). Cable rallied very quickly from 1.7785 to 1.7820 and then very quickly retraced to 1.7805 as people booked profits \. The second wave of buyers then stepped in. drove it through 1.7835 and hence triggered all the stops and the momentum buyers. I believe this reaction is now fairly typical although it means you trade a figure twice now rather than once. (the only caveat is I missed the second move today!).
Baruch said:The initial move? So you take position before the news? Or do you just go with the flow (and the news)? But we have seen many times that the dollar goes against the news, it can fall with a positive number and vice versa. And what do you use as stop loss?.
Baruch said:OK. I wish there were better spreads for Cable.
Baruch said:Do you think small traders take positions before the news? And have you ever done that? Friday with NFP you also saw a rebound after the first move before the move continued. How many pips do you risk (stop loss)?
Anonymous said:It's interesting how traders could have such long minute by minute discussions at the same time as while they are trading the markets.
As one reads the news and argues about the news as one trades the market?
JP1966 said:Agree with all that but check out CBI and the 200 pip reaction on June 29th .
What time are the Oz/Kiwi figures released, Uk time.
JP1966 said:CBI isnt always such a big mover but with all the focus on consumer demand etc in the UK it has been a great figure for a while. Comes out at 11am Uk time so fills the space nicley between the UK and US time zone as well!.
sccz97 said:I take my position before the move, I won't say whether I take it after the news or not
You can almost 100% uarantee that the initla gap is always funamentally in the right direction
sccz97 said:Inerbank spread is generally 2 pips, if you're lucky enough to get access
Hayek said:sccz97 is experienced in trading news. But the success of trading news is based on two basic physical conditions. The 1st is you have to trade with a broker/dealer that will not screw you when the market is volatile. The 2nd is you have to have a news feed which will normally cost you a lot of money to obtain figures/news as soon as possible.
Unluckily, most traders here don't have either.
sccz97 said:while I work in a hedge fund, I conside the trades I make small in fx terms. I take positions before the news all the time as i did today. Stop loss is always very tight around 8-10 pips. Altohugh tis has caused me pain before
JP1966 said:CBI isnt always such a big mover but with all the focus on consumer demand etc in the UK it has been a great figure for a while. Comes out at 11am Uk time so fills the space nicley between the UK and US time zone as well!.
Baruch said:I am not. I pay 4-5 pips. Have you got access to those wonderful 2 pips spreads?
sccz97 said:if there wasn't an initla gap then I guess I woudln't trade it
Baruch said:So you were long before the news today? What made you take that position? 8-10 pips? That's not much when the market really moves...
Do you ever use limit order to catch the news trades?