Its difficult for me to make comparisons as I only trade with one, now. Have they improved? I don't, really, know. They seem ok, to me. 🙂 I'm daytrading but in this atmosphere it is very difficult. I am ahead today, but only just.
Its difficult for me to make comparisons as I only trade with one, now. Have they improved? I don't, really, know. They seem ok, to me. 🙂 I'm daytrading but in this atmosphere it is very difficult. I am ahead today, but only just.
If only I knew what will happen .....
SuddenDeath
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Yes, could be. For my timing.
I'm comfortable with my trend analysis i.e. predicting S/R levels. I have my own method. Influenced by others, but not read about it anywhere else. Comfortable with the fact it's not exact, but usually about right, and that it's mine I designed myself.
When it comes to timing, 95% time I can't use the same method I use for trend analysis, so I have to do something different.
I can for those fairly rare times when there is a clear trend signal on the 1-3 minute level. That's how I got in twice yesterday, successfully. At the low timeframes variation about the S/R level won't exceed my stop, so timing becomes less important.
When you get much higher timeframe the way it works is, there usually won't be a lower timeframe trend signal to tell me the price within a reasonable distance.
For higher timeframe S/R numbers I need to use other methods. I'm trying to design a timing method to go with my S/R predictions which I'm very happy with.
Never read one! 😆
Just a bunch of websites and youtube videos. I have my own system now. Pullback 61% or more = wave 2. Wave 4 pullback = 23-38%. Wave 4 will fake into one or more zig-zags if the last timeframe at which the EW from origin is visible is a higher timeframe than the one you are observing.
SuddenDeath
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Wondering about it for a couple of days, supported by other signals in today's price action.
Posted this page 1797 of this thread.
Since that time I
1. got a signal suggesting oversold past 5831
2. got signals today at mid timeframes using my S/R prediction method suggesting that region was about right.
BTW I also have another timing method, which I forgot to mention. This method is for price action when trending with 15 and 150 EMA. I've mentioned it before. If there is S/R line within 38% of Fib drawn from last range to trend high, the trend will continue. However, this method didn't apply much today due to the ranged conditions, and didn't apply to the reverse.
Edit: An example. You can see in the above chart there is NO S/R line within 38% Fib. It's all one bullish candle. when that happens you usually get a significant pullback. When it doesn't mean a reverse, the trend will continue at an S/R level on the reverse side of 15 EMA between 38-100%. One way to guess if it's a reverse is to look at a timeframe one higher, and do the same analysis there. There aren't that many timeframes above 4hr, but I think the Weekly chart suggests continuation.
This is obviously a decent strategy in its own right... feel free to try it out. It requires a nice trending chart. It's not 100%, and occasionally, it sort-of fakes, but then continues.
Posted this page 1797 of this thread.
Since that time I
1. got a signal suggesting oversold past 5831
2. got signals today at mid timeframes using my S/R prediction method suggesting that region was about right.
BTW I also have another timing method, which I forgot to mention. This method is for price action when trending with 15 and 150 EMA. I've mentioned it before. If there is S/R line within 38% of Fib drawn from last range to trend high, the trend will continue. However, this method didn't apply much today due to the ranged conditions, and didn't apply to the reverse.
Edit: An example. You can see in the above chart there is NO S/R line within 38% Fib. It's all one bullish candle. when that happens you usually get a significant pullback. When it doesn't mean a reverse, the trend will continue at an S/R level on the reverse side of 15 EMA between 38-100%. One way to guess if it's a reverse is to look at a timeframe one higher, and do the same analysis there. There aren't that many timeframes above 4hr, but I think the Weekly chart suggests continuation.
This is obviously a decent strategy in its own right... feel free to try it out. It requires a nice trending chart. It's not 100%, and occasionally, it sort-of fakes, but then continues.
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barjon
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Wondering about it for a couple of days, supported by other signals in today's price action.
Posted this page 1797 of this thread.
Since that time I
1. got a signal suggesting oversold past 5831
2. got signals today at mid timeframes using my S/R prediction method suggesting that region was about right.
BTW I also have another timing method, which I forgot to mention. This method is for price action when trending with 15 and 150 EMA. I've mentioned it before. If there is S/R line within 38% of Fib drawn from last range to trend high, the trend will continue. However, this method didn't apply much today due to the ranged conditions, and didn't apply to the reverse.
So you reckoned the bounce somewhere between 5831 and your solid support at 5822? And you were put off because it happened 5 minutes early - blimey you are trying to turn an art into science 🙂
For me, as soon as it dropped below 30 I'd be dropping to M5 and taking a punt as soon as I saw some evidence of a bounce - and because 15:00pm is one of my favourite reversal times (if that was the time it happened), I might just have taken a straight punt as the clock struck with a stop about 5 or so below your support level. As it happens the earlier descent slowed markedly ten minutes before and the last 5 min candle was a good indecision one and well worth a go given the hour and what you were expecting - wish I'd been about to see it, lol.
FWIW I think all you are doing is giving you a really good guide, but I don't think you can expect to trade from it with the precision you might like. I just don't think the market behaves like that.
I should have waited for at least some evidence of reversal first. It was a high timeframe move. Common sense that it would take some time to turn around, and larger margin of error. I was behaving like it was a low timeframe move that would have a 'V' reverse rather than a distinctive "U".
I agree I'm giving myself a good guide... it may help if I can stick to this strategy now as not doing so could be a reason why I mentally fall apart when the moment comes to trade. Sticking to strategy is something which I have not done, as I've always been developing it. Changing strategy doesn't help because you make mistakes when you forget what strategy it is you are doing today because you make big changes to it every two days. All my strategies have been very high percentage but my actual trading percentage has not yet improved over c40 trades. May have even got worse!
SuddenDeath
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jungerns
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The Guys a Technical Marvel in his own field !!
Morning SD
Some of the Euro data yesterday was poor.
At some stage this data will have to weigh on markets.
SuddenDeath
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FTSE potential support for friday
5819
pivots 5842/38
5819
pivots 5842/38
SuddenDeath
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think markets have accepted that economies are doing poorly so bad data does not cause sell-off. ie. "bad news = not news"
Dow strong into the close, "Pros bought it"
SuddenDeath
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Dax fridays pivots
7375
7368
7375
7368
SuddenDeath
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Dow/sp500 imply 5881/55
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