Hi Zorbas,
Good question. The reason is due to the amount or profit and risk I am using based on the predicted time line of the trade. My stop is around 7500 with a target around 6500 or better. Naturally this all depends on market sentiment and as usual I am always open to allow my mind to change based on any research carried out. This is unbiased research without emotions btw. As the saying goes "There's always two sides to every story" - Everyone always has an opinion and traders are some of the worst.
Due to the size of the risk/reward and based on moving averages for the target market I know that with high probability I wont be stopped out within a couple of weeks. THIS IS A PROBABILITY NOT A CERTAINTY. The market is a way off yet and typical ranges for Dax 30 are as follows:
NOTE: These are Spreadbetting prices/ranges and will differ greatly from actual marker data but bear in mind I am playing against the Spreadbetting company and not the real market. My research is based on real market data and incorporated to be used for Spreadbetting.
Also Note: Ranges are over the time based predicted for the trades then carried forward.
Day: 110pts
Weekly: 240pts
Monthly: 550pts
Markets typically fall much quicker than they rise so as I'm short my concerns are less.
Had I have used DFB (daily's) then I leave myself open to paying interest on this every day. It works out that after about a week I end up paying more than what I would have done had I of used a forward contract.
Also by taking a future contract the SB price works in my favor. As it is currently priced higher than their cash means it will drop by this much on or prior to expiry. So.... the longer I hold the trade the more I make, assuming of course the market doesn't move, however, I do then get my spread back regardless of outcome.
Hope that helps.
Lee Shepherd
Hi Lee
Where art thogh? Did you let your stop hit on this or still in the trade or closer early?
Would be interesting to learn how you managed this trade.