I continue to dislike this strength that seems to ignore all warnings, facts, uncertainties, and news. I'll be sitting on my hands until markets show some reason to do as they do.
Well, after Fri, I like markets a little more......
but as the above shows, last week's dip can't even be called a dip, DOW needs to get to the 200-day average to be seen as being at fair value, a sell-off from there would be a "
real" and welcomed sell-off. My heavy buys are currently set at below the 27k handle, however, 2019 taught me that sentiment can defy gravity so I'll be waiting for my initial 28,093 (possibly 27,715 if on symmetry) DOW target to get neutral on the shorts and start going net long with scaling as the 27k is nearing.
I think the Democratic primaries that have kicked off this month will help drive markets lower, if not immediately then in March (my next target month for a new dip). If Sen. Bernie Sanders continues to gain steam in the polls and gets nominated, I see markets having another reason to go lower. Sanders is viewed by many investors as negative for the stock market and is in favour of significantly raising taxes on individuals and companies, Warren is no better, if she gets the nomination, it will be the same reaction, perhaps worst as her target is the high net worth individuals who, like it or not, are the driving force behind innovation and job creation. I would not put it beyond the vengeful, do-nothing Democrats to intentionally nominate the candidate least liked by the markets so as to lessen Trump's chance of re-election in the face of a market crash. UK politics are neither here nor there as far as the FTSE100 is concerned, but do not ignore US politics! The Dems are a useless party that doesn't care about prosperity or anything like that, they would be happy to see the US in recession during Trump's watch and could well engineer one.
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