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FED to raise by 0.1% tomorrow.
S&P 2000 looks like money in the bank right now.
I'm 'not' buying it, so thats probably another good reason for everyone else to do it given my recent performance.
^ given that general public opinion seems [to me at least] that a rate rise isn't going to happen (aka. 51% taken from tar post above), I think the contrarian view of a rate rise is going to have the biggest risk to reward... I'm all in
The real question is all-in what ? The stock market is already down 5% from the last meeting ... tricky ...
If there is a rate hike it seems like all punters are expecting the worst, so a contrarian view would be simply to BTFD at the appropriate point yeh? As for what, I'd say the dax is going to offer better value than the US indices as a rate hike will also hammer the EURUSD which can only help the Eurozone.
IMO yes there will be another big old sell-off at some point later this year [lol maybe next week], but because some are expecting it today/tomorrow I don't think it'll happen or at least be that severe as that would be just too bloody easy plus the BTFD people will be waiting to jump in for what they perceive as "fair value"
Ultimately what am I going to do... probably just sit on the sidelines agog as I've lost my "risk on mojo" of late
Good luck all!
i missed everything mate due to a match-what did the dow move like on the news.No rate hike and an underwhelming amount of movement.
I have realised I much prefer unscripted news announcements.
Now opening a bottle of red.
i missed everything mate due to a match-what did the dow move like on the news.
tbh dude I got bored and logged off as the indexes were indecisive, obviously I should have waited a little longer for the rally and sell off that immediately followed! The currencies were a far safer/easier play post-news.
Currently short ftse, long EURUSD and long GBPAUD - although I think short the DAX is probably the best bet with the negative correlation between it and EURUSD.
Is that really experience or just a hindsight call? lol loving that thread btw :clap:From experience what usually happens is a rally and then a sell off later-