P
Atilla
Legendary member
- Messages
- 20,848
- Likes
- 4,028
FED to raise by 0.1% tomorrow.
Ooohhhh that's so lame... :-0
They'll lose credibility if they do that. That's the kind of stuff Europeans do. :cheesy:
In the US of A they like to do tinks r e a l B I G !
:!: 0.25% :!:
f2calv
Experienced member
- Messages
- 1,318
- Likes
- 278
tar
Legendary member
- Messages
- 10,443
- Likes
- 1,314
Why the Fed will raise rates Thursday: Jim Grant
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/16/why-the-fed-will-raise-rates-thursday-jim-grant.html
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/16/why-the-fed-will-raise-rates-thursday-jim-grant.html
tar
Legendary member
- Messages
- 10,443
- Likes
- 1,314
^ given that general public opinion seems [to me at least] that a rate rise isn't going to happen (aka. 51% taken from tar post above), I think the contrarian view of a rate rise is going to have the biggest risk to reward... I'm all in
The real question is all-in what ? The stock market is already down 5% from the last meeting ... tricky ...
f2calv
Experienced member
- Messages
- 1,318
- Likes
- 278
If there is a rate hike it seems like all punters are expecting the worst, so a contrarian view would be simply to BTFD at the appropriate point yeh? As for what, I'd say the dax is going to offer better value than the US indices as a rate hike will also hammer the EURUSD which can only help the Eurozone.
IMO yes there will be another big old sell-off at some point later this year [lol maybe next week], but because some are expecting it today/tomorrow I don't think it'll happen or at least be that severe as that would be just too bloody easy plus the BTFD people will be waiting to jump in for what they perceive as "fair value"
Ultimately what am I going to do... probably just sit on the sidelines agog as I've lost my "risk on mojo" of late
Good luck all!
Dick Lexic
Veteren member
- Messages
- 4,954
- Likes
- 124
Yeah FTSE clobbered the bulls again
All clear as mud for now.
All clear as mud for now.
psaTrading
Experienced member
- Messages
- 1,063
- Likes
- 53
Boosting US markets was the appreciation of oil (+ 5.70%) and possibly some expectation that the Fed will keep rates unchanged today. The commodities also rose in general, with an highlight to the appreciation of oil. This oil boost is explained by last week announce regarding the decrease of 2.1 million barrels. A large part of this decline (1.9 million barrels) was registered in Cushing (Oklahoma) which is a storage point for most of the oil generated in the US. The rise in oil boosted not only its sector as well as industrial, which has registered a high correlation with the evolution of crude oil. Another possible reason for the rise in the past two days has to do with a statistical curiosity. The New York Fed published an interesting statistic that indicates that since 1994 the American indices recorded valuations (in 80% of cases) in the two days preceding the meeting of the Fed. The meeting of the Fed is the main event of the day, and the decision will be reported at 19h00 and succeeded by a press conference where Janet Yellen will refer their motivations. Today’s session should be so divided in two phases. The first should be marked by the expectation of the Fed decision, with reduced volume as well as low volatility. The second part of the session shall be characterized by the reaction of investors to the outcome of the meeting. Most likely we shall be able to watch to a first reaction today after the decision, but the real impact will occur tomorrow, with the opening of the emerging markets.
tar
Legendary member
- Messages
- 10,443
- Likes
- 1,314
If there is a rate hike it seems like all punters are expecting the worst, so a contrarian view would be simply to BTFD at the appropriate point yeh? As for what, I'd say the dax is going to offer better value than the US indices as a rate hike will also hammer the EURUSD which can only help the Eurozone.
IMO yes there will be another big old sell-off at some point later this year [lol maybe next week], but because some are expecting it today/tomorrow I don't think it'll happen or at least be that severe as that would be just too bloody easy plus the BTFD people will be waiting to jump in for what they perceive as "fair value"
Ultimately what am I going to do... probably just sit on the sidelines agog as I've lost my "risk on mojo" of late
Good luck all!
Apparently it was a short either way
itspossible
Senior member
- Messages
- 2,796
- Likes
- 570
i missed everything mate due to a match-what did the dow move like on the news.
f2calv
Experienced member
- Messages
- 1,318
- Likes
- 278
tbh dude I got bored and logged off as the indexes were indecisive, obviously I should have waited a little longer for the rally and sell off that immediately followed! The currencies were a far safer/easier play post-news.
Currently short ftse, long EURUSD and long GBPAUD - although I think short the DAX is probably the best bet with the negative correlation between it and EURUSD.
P
postman
At this rate no one in the world is ever going to raise interest rates again!
itspossible
Senior member
- Messages
- 2,796
- Likes
- 570
From experience what usually happens is a rally and then a sell off later-
f2calv
Experienced member
- Messages
- 1,318
- Likes
- 278
Is that really experience or just a hindsight call?
lol loving that thread btw :clap:psaTrading
Experienced member
- Messages
- 1,063
- Likes
- 53
In the pre-opening, European markets traded lower, albeit with very small volumes, a day after it was known the decision of the US Federal Reserve. In Asia, the market response was not uniform, having initially been observed a moderately positive response, but later stood the renewed fears about the health of the global economy, particularly the Chinese economy. Following this decision the Euro appreciated against the dollar which could penalize the stocks of the main European exporting companies, including car manufacturers and luxury goods. During the session today (and probably in the coming sessions) investors will reshape their expectations after yesterday’s decision by the Fed and then readjust their portfolios. At the same time, investors of the Old Continent will monitor the reaction of the commodities market (interest rates affect doubly these assets as they influence economic activity and the evolution of the dollar, which has an inverse relationship with commodities). In addition, investors will monitor the reaction of the first emerging markets in Asia (Asian and southeast Turkey) then in Africa (especially South Africa) until the opening of the Mexican and Brazilian markets.
psaTrading
Experienced member
- Messages
- 1,063
- Likes
- 53
In the pre-opening, European shares traded with modest losses. Questions regarding the monetary policy of the Fed and the global economic situation will shape investor sentiment in the near future. In the medium term, the outlook for equity markets looks a bit threatening to the extent that uncertainties should not dissipate shortly. It is not excluded the occurrence of recoveries in prices (as a reaction to recent losses) but the underlying trend deserves caution. An uncertainty that was feared by investors would be a tie in the Greek elections, which did not materialize, and the Greek bonds climbed in the first hour of trading today.
Dick Lexic
Veteren member
- Messages
- 4,954
- Likes
- 124
Looks like old mother has a new low in sight, August low 5768 possible
