European markets started the session trading in slight decline. Equities pared gains yesterday after the International Monetary Fund said that its team negotiating with Greece left Brussels after failing to make progress on a debt deal.
The IMF cited “major differences” for the withdrawal of its team, although it left the door open for further talks. The decision came amid increasing criticism from creditors at the Greek government’s refusal to bow to their demands, risking a default and ultimately an exit from the euro area. In addition, some European leaders demonstrated their concern regarding the time available for reaching an agreement. If no solution is found in the Eurogroup meeting next week, even if it can be reached later, the various parliaments would not have time to approve it before the end of the month, a key upcoming maturity of Athens’ debt, when Greece has to pay 1600 M.€ to the IMF. In short, the only certainty at this juncture is that markets will remain volatile, fluctuating according to news and rumors. The increased volatility can not be attributed only to Greece, as the actions of central banks in recent years, injecting an unprecedented liquidity in the global financial system, caused a sharp drop in volatility. Now, as some central banks (FED and Bank of England) withdraw this liquidity, volatility should gradually increase, returning to its historical average.