dow much keener than ftse to go down
dow much keener than ftse to go down
barjon
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it is today, reverse of yesterday and strong into the close
barjon
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Just for interest (promise I won't litter the thread tomorrow 🙂) here's a chart of the cumulative ftse strength/weakness compared to dow so far this year.
The extremes on a daily basis were +68 strong and -38 weak.
The extremes on an hourly basis were +24 strong and -26 weak
As a reminder:
Strong means that ftse has risen more than 1 point for 2 dow points or fallen less than 1 point for 2 dow points
Weak means that ftse has risen less than 1 point for 2 dow points or fallen more than 1 point for 2 dow points
The extremes on a daily basis were +68 strong and -38 weak.
The extremes on an hourly basis were +24 strong and -26 weak
As a reminder:
Strong means that ftse has risen more than 1 point for 2 dow points or fallen less than 1 point for 2 dow points
Weak means that ftse has risen less than 1 point for 2 dow points or fallen more than 1 point for 2 dow points
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Dick Lexic
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i don't think your littering the thread bj no way ...all interesting stuff even tho i'm too thick to understand it...but it's nice that you and the other regulars take the bother to post.
all take no give no good🙁
all take no give no good🙁
Chalky_trader
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its like Groundhog day
6000 ftse 7000 dax anyone
6000 ftse 7000 dax anyone
If that's littering, then bring on the garbage truck! Nice stuff jon. Thank you.
Did anyone else have trouble getting in to T2W yesterday? I found the site down most of the day.
Today I am expecting a fairly tetchy day. Yesterdays reversal of the wednesday sell off leaves traders scratching their heads. I am taking small targets again. I am happy with 5 pts. It's looking like testing 5900 futures again. That would coincide with a 25 pt first hour range.
BarJOn
Very interesting that graph This morning we have loitered between 25 and 30 on the weak side.
I find it very interesting so please don't think you are littering! And according to that graph if you were doing pairs trade now you should always be buying Ftse and using a short of Dow as a hedge ( at least until the data changes)
Is that correct?
fletchie
Dick Lexic
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i got an old vloume line at 26 cash i was looking for a close above this on the hour ....still thinking 35 is the key if we get there
barjon
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fletch
Don't forget it's a cumulative graph so every up slope indicates the ftse being strong and down slope being weak. It's also a touch misleading because it should have started from the zero line (the first day was over 60 strong which is why it starts up there) so in relative to dow terms ftse is pretty much back where it started.
So what you are seeing is a reversion to mean, albeit that the strong extremes have been much higher than the weak extremes have been low - if you see what I mean 😕 The daily histogram might explain it better - you'll see, for example, that the opening strong day was followed by weak days as it tries to revert. This happens on an intraday basis, too.
For pairs trading you are basically looking for strong or weak extremes and assuming an attempt at reversion.
I am conscious that this is not what the thread is about - although whether ftse is trading weak or strong does have relevance - and I wouldn't want to "litter" it too much.
jon
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when doing pairs with the dax/cac I wait for the dax ( it usually is the dax) to have moved far in excess of the cac and then like an elastic band the pair snap back together
sometimes that has been the dax moving back aggressively but on occasion it is the cac that plays catch up - it has taken two or three days sometimes but when it moves it does so quickly and 'overshoots'
Apologies CMJ as I have pestered BarJon on this and it really isn't the thread but I find it very interesting how the markets react and adjust ( as well as profitable)
cheers BarJon - your help ( and those graphs are very revealing) is much appreciated
fletchie
I'm sure our cricket correspondent doesn't mind. Neither do I.
This is what they call chop. It is trying to reverse but just can't be bothered. The 20 EMA on the 5 min chart is holding firm. First close of a 5 mc above it should signify the reversal has happened but it may be in slow motion.
This is what they call chop. It is trying to reverse but just can't be bothered. The 20 EMA on the 5 min chart is holding firm. First close of a 5 mc above it should signify the reversal has happened but it may be in slow motion.
Ha Ha
My error
I work in cricket so an easy mistake for me to make 😆😆
cheers
fletchie
fletchie - how is the coaching going and is Tendulkar ever going to get his 100th 100?
Well we have got to within 1 pt of 5900 and bounced a little. Don't know if it is finally going to reverse properly.
The reversal at 10 am was shortlived, and the signal that it wasn't going to go up any more was the three 5 min candles that all had longish wicks Any longs that you had should have been stopped out at about 5911, and you should have reversed short because it was clear that it would test the low again.
Well we have got to within 1 pt of 5900 and bounced a little. Don't know if it is finally going to reverse properly.
The reversal at 10 am was shortlived, and the signal that it wasn't going to go up any more was the three 5 min candles that all had longish wicks Any longs that you had should have been stopped out at about 5911, and you should have reversed short because it was clear that it would test the low again.
Dick Lexic
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26= tough nut to crack🙁
Just got stopped out on the short. Probably should have had the stop a fraction higher above the 5911 futres/5926 cash level.
Still only a 25 pt trading range so far. I said it would be tetchy. Still have my sights on the 38% retracement level at 94.5, but for that to happen the ES would need to break below its 38% level at 1369.5. There is no appetite for longs on the FTSE, so for now I am short again and just determined not to get shaken out so easily again.
It's been a boring trading day so far and there are only crumbs available. Better off saving my energy and sorting out my sock drawer.
Still only a 25 pt trading range so far. I said it would be tetchy. Still have my sights on the 38% retracement level at 94.5, but for that to happen the ES would need to break below its 38% level at 1369.5. There is no appetite for longs on the FTSE, so for now I am short again and just determined not to get shaken out so easily again.
It's been a boring trading day so far and there are only crumbs available. Better off saving my energy and sorting out my sock drawer.
I hope that you are right because I am trying something new. I entered short at 5926 cash at 1008. If it works it is a very peaceful way of doing things--only one trade, so far, to-day. 12 points up, so far. I was hoping for the bottom to drop out of the market but these things rarely happen to me. 🙁 I was born to suffer.
Looks like the market bounced where the ES bounced yesterday evening at 1368.0. But the bounced hasn't continued up and there is still little appetite for a sustained rally. The last three rallies on the ftse have been for 10.5, 10 and 12 pts. Split your short is still safe. We could be looking at 83.5 = 50% level or 72.5 = 61.8% level. But I am holding fire now until we see what the yankees do.
MCJ
Crikey Martin. It's almost as if you know me! Tendulkar will score it in India and they will go mad. He had a couple of good chances in Oz but as a side they were abject.
This market has risen a bit but it all looks a little lacklustre. If US sells off after 3pm then I expect FTSE to fall quite sharply into Friday close of play.
f
Yes, that was nearly the end of my experiment. The rally took me up to breakeven and gradually has recouped and still falling. My good fortune was that I still had the original stop on. I should have taken profits (I shoulda) and reentered. Still, alls well that ends well although it is very volatile and could go up again. I gotta watchit!
