I just wanted to post up a chart of a trap. At the open this morning we had a nice push down at 8:06am that pulled back at 8:20am, but there was no continuation of the move down. In fact it took a further 10 minutes before there was a 1 tick move back down. I like to enter on a pullback and then continuation in the direction of the trend. Entering on a limit order at a moving average can leave you trapped, which is what happened this morning.
Firstly, why did it reverse at 5826.5? Well 5828 was the FTSE future price at the close of the cash market at 4:30pm yesterday. So a bounce off this level was likely. Also, it is normal to get 3 trend bars on the 5 min chart at the open before a retest. Getting a 4th trend bar at the open means this is a strong move.
Alright so it reverses at the expected level. Then you look for a with trend entry after the pullback. Personally I look for a bounce off the middle bollinger band (12 period) on the 1 min chart. And I would enter on a sell stop on the first 1 minute candle to make a lower low.
Well the first warning sign that a reversal may not happen shows up at point A at 8:23am when it sails past the mbb without any move back down. Then at 8:24am we get an inside bar. Again no lower low to enter on a sell stop for a continuation down. At 8:25am we get a move higher than the high of the 8:24am candle. For an aggressive trade this would be a long entry.
At point B at 8:26 am we even get a small gap that doesn't fill. This is starting to trigger some stops of those short.
The final chance for the price action to bounce is at point C at 8:27am when it should pause and bounce off the 37SMA (the dotted purple line), which is the same as the mbb on the 5 min chart. In all this move there has been no down tick, until 8:30am and we get a move of just 1 down tick that is pushed back immediately and becomes an outside bar. This triggers a bunch of stops and the price moves up quickly.
So what does this teach us. Firstly entering on a limit on a pullback can leave you trapped. Entering on a stop order on the first with trend move is a safer entry, most times. Secondly, look for trapped traders who can't get out of their trades, especially if the market does the unexpected and reverses with strength.