The ES did a perfect 161.8% extension after 4:30pm. It has now retraced 38% and bounced which is bullish. The FTSE did a perfect 261.8% extension and has also just bounced off the 38% retracement. I think we have set the range for the day now, unless something happens with the greek pizza order later today.
So far a 38% pull-back. I would have liked to have seen more.
I would think traders will start to think about NFP today after yesterdays data. I have seen the two result contradict each other before but I feel like generally they both paint the same picture.
Would be nice if anyone has got any stats to hand or the relationship between the results?
I would think traders will start to think about NFP today after yesterdays data. I have seen the two result contradict each other before but I feel like generally they both paint the same picture.
Would be nice if anyone has got any stats to hand or the relationship between the results?
Sidekicker
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ABout a 40-50 pt difference between DOW and FTSE at moment.
FTSE just vertical, should give some back?
FTSE just vertical, should give some back?
Well that was lame. And the markets are starting to test the highs.
Looked at ADP with NFP.
Going back to Jan 2007 if NFP misses/beats expectations 61% of the time NFP will follow suit.
ADP miss NFP beat 18%
ADP beat NFP miss 21%
This will also take it to account that they adjust exceptions if its a big miss or gain.
Thanks for that Mark.
I would also add that on NFP days, the US cash market usually moves no more than 1%. ie 2:30pm to 9pm. And unless there is a big surprise the FTSE does not move much between 1:30pm and 2:30pm on NFP days.
Last month the NFPs beat estimates and has trended up the last three months. I think they will beat but not by much.
I would also add that on NFP days, the US cash market usually moves no more than 1%. ie 2:30pm to 9pm. And unless there is a big surprise the FTSE does not move much between 1:30pm and 2:30pm on NFP days.
Last month the NFPs beat estimates and has trended up the last three months. I think they will beat but not by much.
danboi8989
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Yes mate i was short. I think i may have got out a little early but its much better than a loss thats for sure. I desperately need to research further into entry and exit points
danboi8989
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This may sound daft but i dont use fibonacci very much... I understand all about the retracements and extensions etc. But what time frame are you using to determine this
Sidekicker
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Dan sorry for the late reply, I wasn't around much yesterday afternoon.
I use Fibs on both the 1 hour chart and the 5 minute chart. I only look at the futures chart, but the cash chart comes reasonably close. I trade short term time frames, but the longer term helps me with overall bias.
For the 1 hour chart, the FIB extensions of 127% and 161.8% are used a lot. You need to be aware when the price reaches these levels. To get these numbers place your 100% and 0% on the swing high and low of the last 24 hours and possibly longer if no obvious turning points. If the move is lacking in strength it will retrace only 50%, 61.8% or 78.6% before turning and going back down to the 0% line.
In a really strong trend, ie ones that have had 161.8% extensions or more, they tend to only retrace to 38% before going back and retesting the highs.
On the 5 min chart, I still use Fibs but mostly the 50% and 61.8% lines, and I use the high and low of the first 1 to 2 hours for the 100% and 0% lines.
How you trade these levels is up to you. But to enter at a level I look for some kind of confirmation that it has bounced off that level before entering. I don't enter exactly at the number. But I will close trades at the number or possibly a few ticks shy of it to lock in a profit.
The pros use Fibs, so don't ignore them. Be aware of them.
Dick Lexic
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i have deleted my last three posts ...thought they may have been a bit off topic...but never mind no harm done🙂
Dick Lexic
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Dick, you could have left them there. They always provide food for thought.
So far we have a one way day up. It makes a new high every 30 minutes or so without any major pullbacks. The ES has almost retraced to 100% whereas the FTSE is extending and looking for 5787. No sell off yet.
Dick they were good. I was going to have a look into them today.
Dick
leave them up - when I have some spare time I enjoy going back over the many posts of the week and looking at charts etc - it helps my learning
sometimes on trading day's it is difficult to examine all posts fully so it is good to leave them up
today I have been scalping the CAC - it moves very slowly and I use a bigger stake - but soon I will cease until the nfp news
I hate open positions around big news and experience has taught me scalping close to a number can be a bit of a rollercoaster
fletchie😈
danboi
Martin CJ post 5172 ( I think) about the fibs levels etc is absolutely excellent and a must print out for you
I know you state you don't use fibs but I urge you to take that post seriously
fletchie😀
Dick Lexic
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ok guys i'll put them back up🙂
i'm doing something today i promised myself i would never do ....i'm long and staying there with a huge stop even though it's nfp "no frekkin prisoners" day 🙂....small stake..
i'm doing something today i promised myself i would never do ....i'm long and staying there with a huge stop even though it's nfp "no frekkin prisoners" day 🙂....small stake..
dick
you are braver than me😱
how big a stop? i think last nfp the dow moved over 100 pip range so the ftse was probably circa 50 or so
f
Dick Lexic
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