hereward the wake
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Dick Lexic
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hereward the wake
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retreating from the s&p cash high 49 dax resistance on the hour at 80. If it breaks those two could be a screamer
Last edited:
P
postman
worth watching this fib area ...dow cash 4hr...maybe aye maybe naw
Thanks DL.
Dow is having a lot of trouble with 480 cash. Normally they would ramp it up into jobs numbers but there doesn't seem to be the appetite for it today.
Thats a lot of downside.
hereward the wake
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where's our leader today?
Dick Lexic
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still think all the volume is hanging over this market ...need to see some propping it up i think.....ha ftse back at the magnet
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postman
hereward the wake
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postman
He he. Our real leader is watching in the wings. Poised to post!
SuddenDeath
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Morning everyone
postman good call for your unch
postman good call for your unch
P
postman
SuddenDeath
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Thanks. Just thinking like a market maker.
thats a 50-1 call at the bookie when dow down more than 100
hereward the wake
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s&P cash high
P
postman
Somethings going on in the land of Beer and Sausage.
SuddenDeath
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Was looking at dax 01Jan13-05Feb14, and see that 68% of the time it comes back to touch the previous day's close..any ideas how to trade that? fade the 1st hour?
Or is a year not enough? Maybe 5 years would show 50%?
morning
thats great info
u could do it with daily options on IG
hereward the wake
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if I get a 3 min candle close over this s&p high I'm going to fill my boots with livervurst
P
postman
At the mention of the word 'Sausage' the dog came running in, when I explained there was no food on offer he looked at the chart said 'short it' and went back to his bed.
hereward the wake
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Dom Poo Poos a weak Jan
From The Trader
Daily market outlook
06 February 2014
January 2014 couldn't have been more different than January 2013. The first month of last year was a cracker in the stock market, with the S&P 500 notching up trough-to-peak gains of 5.9 per cent and the FTSE 100 delivering 7.7 per cent. And, it was a sign of things to come. The two indices recorded gains for the rest of the year of 31.9 per cent and 14.7 per cent. Are this January's losses also a sign of things to come, therefore?
Today's Market Focus
So goes January?
So goes January?
Graham Cox has written in to point out that, not only was January a losing month, but that the sell-off also breached the lows made in December. He referred me to the "December Low indicator", which figures in the Stock Trader's Almanac, a longstanding market-timing franchise.
Dow busts December's lows
This indicator is based on the insight that, when the Dow closes below December's closing low in the first quarter of next year, it is often an "excellent warning sign". "But is it even better when combined with a negative January?" Graham wants to know.
First of all, I am not impressed by the record of the "January barometer", at least when it comes to predicting down-years. In the past 85 years, the Dow has dropped 29 times in the month of January. But it has only then gone on to deliver a negative capital return in the rest of the year on 14 occasions. The average return after a down January has been a positive 2.1 per cent.
No disaster here
What about years where the Dow has breached its December lows in the first quarter of the year? I count 30 such incidents since 1928. Of these, a mere 12 resulted in negative returns over the remaining three quarters of the year. The median return overall was 3.9 per cent. Once again, I can hardly lose sleep over this.
In my experience, stitching two or more dodgy indicators together seldom results in a more robust one. This is also the case when we combine the "January barometer" and the "December low indicator". Of the 23 years since 1928 where the Dow has gone down in January and has also breached its previous December's lows, only 11 then saw losses for the rest of the year.
I dare say one could make further tweaking, such as also looking at years where the first trading week is also negative, which is what Graham suggested I do. I am all for studying seasonal patterns, but prefer them to be as straightforward as possible. The more quirky and convoluted the rules involved, the less chance that there's a good reason behind them, and thus that the quirk will happen again.
Oversold FTSE
Whether or not 2014 ends being a positive or negative year, the current sell-off in equities is nearing some interesting levels. The FTSE 100 and Dow have already reached their 200-day moving averages, while the S&P and DAX are in sight of theirs. All are also fast approaching oversold levels according to their daily relative strength indices.
S&P's past bounces
Oversoldness during a bull market typically leads to good buying opportunities. The S&P's two episodes in 2012 are a great example of this. I don't doubt we'll see a decent bounce within the next few days, therefore. And I'll happily play that from the long side. The more interesting question is whether it leads to a lasting recovery or not. My guess is that it will.
MORE FROM DOMINIC PICARDA...
Dominic Picarda is a Chartered Market Technician and has co-ordinated the IC's trading coverage since 2006. He is a regular speaker at trading and investment events and also holds the Chartered Financial Analyst qualification.
From The Trader
Daily market outlook
06 February 2014
January 2014 couldn't have been more different than January 2013. The first month of last year was a cracker in the stock market, with the S&P 500 notching up trough-to-peak gains of 5.9 per cent and the FTSE 100 delivering 7.7 per cent. And, it was a sign of things to come. The two indices recorded gains for the rest of the year of 31.9 per cent and 14.7 per cent. Are this January's losses also a sign of things to come, therefore?
Today's Market Focus
So goes January?
So goes January?
Graham Cox has written in to point out that, not only was January a losing month, but that the sell-off also breached the lows made in December. He referred me to the "December Low indicator", which figures in the Stock Trader's Almanac, a longstanding market-timing franchise.
Dow busts December's lows
This indicator is based on the insight that, when the Dow closes below December's closing low in the first quarter of next year, it is often an "excellent warning sign". "But is it even better when combined with a negative January?" Graham wants to know.
First of all, I am not impressed by the record of the "January barometer", at least when it comes to predicting down-years. In the past 85 years, the Dow has dropped 29 times in the month of January. But it has only then gone on to deliver a negative capital return in the rest of the year on 14 occasions. The average return after a down January has been a positive 2.1 per cent.
No disaster here
What about years where the Dow has breached its December lows in the first quarter of the year? I count 30 such incidents since 1928. Of these, a mere 12 resulted in negative returns over the remaining three quarters of the year. The median return overall was 3.9 per cent. Once again, I can hardly lose sleep over this.
In my experience, stitching two or more dodgy indicators together seldom results in a more robust one. This is also the case when we combine the "January barometer" and the "December low indicator". Of the 23 years since 1928 where the Dow has gone down in January and has also breached its previous December's lows, only 11 then saw losses for the rest of the year.
I dare say one could make further tweaking, such as also looking at years where the first trading week is also negative, which is what Graham suggested I do. I am all for studying seasonal patterns, but prefer them to be as straightforward as possible. The more quirky and convoluted the rules involved, the less chance that there's a good reason behind them, and thus that the quirk will happen again.
Oversold FTSE
Whether or not 2014 ends being a positive or negative year, the current sell-off in equities is nearing some interesting levels. The FTSE 100 and Dow have already reached their 200-day moving averages, while the S&P and DAX are in sight of theirs. All are also fast approaching oversold levels according to their daily relative strength indices.
S&P's past bounces
Oversoldness during a bull market typically leads to good buying opportunities. The S&P's two episodes in 2012 are a great example of this. I don't doubt we'll see a decent bounce within the next few days, therefore. And I'll happily play that from the long side. The more interesting question is whether it leads to a lasting recovery or not. My guess is that it will.
MORE FROM DOMINIC PICARDA...
Dominic Picarda is a Chartered Market Technician and has co-ordinated the IC's trading coverage since 2006. He is a regular speaker at trading and investment events and also holds the Chartered Financial Analyst qualification.
