Whatever happens it is likely to be a hairy start at 2:30pm. I have no idea what to expect, except volatility.
As for the Italian bond situation, a bailout is inevitable. These things tend to become self fulfilling prophecies. Just like forcing the UK out of the EMU. The market ends up betting it is going to happen, and will not rest until it does. Same happened for Greece, Ireland, Portugal. Don't forget Spain their bond rates are going sky high. Will the IMF bail them out? Even the IMF doesn't have that kind of money. So where does this leave all our big banks? Bit scary, isn't it.