I am intrigued by some of the methods presented in this thread for trading the FTSE Futures. I traded the UK100 daily with real money for about a year but decided it was too difficult to be consistent. So I took a different approach, which meant learning to program.
I developed a simple system, which I use in a demo account, but am very keen to get ‘real’ again.
The system buys when the price goes up , sells when it goes down and waits when it goes sideways . There are a number of parameters in the program which for example distinguish between sideways, up and down, but no complex mathematical indicators.
My guiding principle is ‘avoid complexity’, which includes candle analysis, chart patterns, Elliot Waves and Fibonacci – all of which I find fascinating and often apply extremely well to historic data.
Going live any time since March would have been good and last week’s results were also good. But what about December 2010 to January 2011? That makes me very cautious about going live now with December approaching.
Of course, the rules don’t change, the behaviour of the price changes. It still goes up, down and sideways as before, but in a different way, which is difficult to quantify. Human descriptions such as “choppy, volatile, trending” etc may be true, but my dumb program needs more precision. Any ideas?
Yes I can tweak the parameters to better fit the historic data, but who cares about the past? I know that losses are part of winning and there are no guarantees, but I’m being very cautious nevertheless.
I’ve attached some charts to show the success of the last few days and a really bad couple of days. Also today’s chart. Where will it go? How will the logic respond?