I actually did buy this program, traded it since February, and tracked it since December.
First I'd like to say that I don't think this system is an intentional scam. I believe wholeheartedly that it does in fact work for John Paul. He has years of experience and has the ability to adjust and improve his system as he sees fit. I also believe that if you could be right about whether the trade was 2 or 2+4 each time, or if you could know when the market was going to turn around at -4, -5, -6, or never, that you would be profitable.
That being said, here is what I found:
Taking only some of the trades is not profitable. You need all the gains to make up for the average 20 point loss per contract, per month.
Going for only 2 points will get you around 10 points per contract most months. Other months (December, Feb, and July for example) would be losses.
Going for 2+4 points every time has a similar result. If you can't tell when to call a 4 point trade a 2 point trade, all the 2 point trades become washes.
Going for a mix of 2's and 2+4 is the only way to come closer to the performance results, but learning how to tell one from the other is no simple matter. And when you're wrong, 2 point trades will turn into washes when the 2nd contract stops out, and 2+4 point trades will turn into 2 point trades when you don't wait long enough to exit.
Setting smaller stops does not seem to help. For every 3 times it saves you 2 points, theres a trade that turns around into a winner, leaving you a 5-7 point gap. Now, if you could figure out *when* to be at a lower stop, and when to be higher, then you would be in much better shape...but that would be something you learned on your own.
Some trades that the performance history shows as profitable will not be filled. Perhaps you could increase your chances if you programmed ninjatrader to make the trades.
All trades that the performance history shows as losses will be filled.
You are not done trading at noon everyday. Not that that's important to me, but it is advertised as such. You are done trading at noon 3 or 4 days out of 5. One of those days will be a loss which will mean you need to trade until close, and another day could easily have a trade that triggers before noon and fills and targets well after. Sure, you could quit at noon anyway, but if you do you will not come close to the performance data.
The performance history includes trades on non-losing days that signalled after you were supposed to stop trading. If these trades were 30 minutes late, its not noted. If they were later than that, there is usually a note that says "if taken". However, the profit is included in the results, even though there is no way you would have known to take that afternoon trade while ignoring another.
As the disclaimer now says, per CFTC Rule 4.41 "Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading." "they are designed with the benefits of hindsight". This is very very true. If the system still listed the daily data, you could go back and look at each trade since June 08. I happen to have saved that data to a spreadsheet before it was taken down, and have used ninjatrader marketreplay to go through several months where I wasn't trading live.
When I bought the system, I figured that at the cost, it was a cheap lesson in the least (cheaper than grad school classes for sure). And actually, I still think that. Learning how some valid data points are calculated, plus the experience of trading price action, was valuable. However, one of the things that sold me on this system was all the data that was posted dating back to June 08. Now that it's gone, I doubt I would have trusted the system at all...If you do buy this system, I recommend starting a spreadsheet of your own to track the progress. Ignore the big number on the performance page and start tracking what you would really be doing. The data will tell you the story you need to know.
Cheers,
ChiDayTrader