Active day and swing traders

[barjon]

Good point.
However, wouldn't that mean you would never short in a bullish market?
I'm suggesting looking for sectors that are bearish whilst the general trend is up.
Ale

ale

no, it's just more risky that's why half positions (for me). 'course you do have to determine "trend" and that depends on the timescale you're working to and the personal methods you use.

got to dash, will pick up this evening if you want.

good trading

jon

 

[techst]

Getting back to point on high and low priced stocks. It really doesn't matter what price the stock is. What's important is the channel that it trades in. I agree bigger price stocks tend to move slower, but there are exceptions, RIO being one of them. Measure the channel the stock trades in from the higher highs of two points to the higher lows of at least two points, actually draw the a channel. (opposite for short of curse) Then work out the channel width in terms of a percentage figure. I look for channels with at least 10% and upwards in their swing. This should be done to qualify a stock to your watchlist. Yes, lower stocks do tend to have nice fatter channels to make room for your profits. There are stocks like RIO which have good volatility aswell. But this all depends on your time frame. Yahoo Finance provide a quartely volatility figure aswell, which is quite handy, Thanks for reading

 

[Euro_d]

Wow, again I go out for an hour and now we have a lady member, Welcome Silvia, OK boys, no more bad language
OK a few comments:

Split, no certainly not necessary to go back to school and I know a lot of people that make money by being contrairian, indeed there even is a school of thought that fades the open of any market. Not for me but I acknowledge it works.

Ale, yep, you are right about the margin, seems that I often miss that restriction as I use my famous spreadsheet to calculate risk based on current trades and their relation to the SL. If it starts get close to 8% or so then I do not enter new trades. That way it is self limiting rather than trading up to the SB company limit and possibly getting a nasty margin call.

Techst, I agree that channels are a very good way to follow the trend as is sector watching. Have you tried the more dynamic Bollinger bands?

cheers all
Dave

PS, Jon, I too am off to golf but its piddling down so maybe later?

 

[ale]

Sorry, I don't understand the Sl and 8% comment.
Please explain.
Rain?
In Spain?
Sun's out here!!

calculate risk based on current trades and their relation to the SL. If it starts get close to 8% or so then I do not enter new trades. That way it is self limiting rather than trading up to the SB company limit and possibly getting a nasty margin call.

 

[Euro_d]

Sorry, I don't understand the Sl and 8% comment.
Please explain.
Rain?
In Spain?
Sun's out here!!

SL = Stop Loss, 8% is the total risk that I allow myself on open positions.
So, if my total risk is 8% of my bank I do not enter more positions

 

[techst]

Euro_D: just make clear I'm not using the channel to follow the trend in this example. I'm using the channel measurement to find out if the stock has enough swing to make room for profit. If it's good and volatile I'll then consider trading it. MoneyAm do useful UK sector charts which I always check before I enter a trade of the relevant sector.

Bollinger Bands aren't my bag. I'm sure there's many traders who use them well. But you can get a gauge of the pressure and volatility building from looking at the price action. You get to a point where you can almost feel the pressure and emotions of the traders involved in the chart your watching. As Jack Schwager mentioned in New Market Wizards about everybody having the 'lense' from which they view the markets. Essentially we are all studying price but through different calculations and techniques, these are our individual lenses, but the bottom line is price it's what were all watching no matter how we view it.

 

[Euro_d]

Well put Sir, I now understand.
Yep, I agree, we all have variations in our interpretation. The bottom line is do we make money?
I assume so as if we did not then we would not do it?

Have a good weekend
Dave

 

[silviaic]

There we go

Wow, this is good! I've just entered a trade, first time I'm going to test it in public, and I already feel the peer pressure and embarrassment if it turn out I was wrong! This is very challenging for me, I hope I'll learn to keep it cool. If I don't I'll have to leave you guys (I keep very cool when I feel it's just me and the market, but this is different ). Very useful to learn how to get rid of my pride (no comments there please).

Went long KGF

Silvia.

 

[Splitlink]

Wow, this is good! I've just entered a trade, first time I'm going to test it in public, and I already feel the peer pressure and embarrassment if it turn out I was wrong! This is very challenging for me, I hope I'll learn to keep it cool. If I don't I'll have to leave you guys (I keep very cool when I feel it's just me and the market, but this is different ). Very useful to learn how to get rid of my pride (no comments there please).

Went long KGF

Silvia.

It's on strong support. Is that why you traded it? Have a look at the swingtrading thread, too, don't fall 100% for this lot, over here- charming as they are!

Split

 

[barjon]

Silvia

great - keep 'em coming kgf not in my stable at the moment - I see they are due to announce results on 15/9 and that might be a volatile day.

good trading

jon

 

[silviaic]

It's on strong support. Is that why you traded it? Have a look at the swingtrading thread, too, don't fall 100% for this lot, over here- charming as they are!

I see they are due to announce results on 15/9 and that might be a volatile day.

Hi guys! Well, I think I might have got in too quickly, my plan was to wait a little bit longer as I don't see too much happening before the results, and its behaviour in the first half of the week could give me more information. BUT during last week I missed about 5 great moves because I was over cautious. I saw a good entry point in this one and there I went. As I'm not 100% convinced I'm keeping a very tight sl.

Plus points: 1. As you said Split, support at 244 2.bottom of the channel 3.Good volume, in particular the period june-july when making support 4. Some room below the 200-ema, giving a possible target (it it doesn't fail before getting there) at about 270.

Minuses: 1.Below 200-ema and below 100-ema, and downtrend when looking at these. 2. The peaks of the channel are going down, and I don't know what this means. 3. It could gap down!!!!! aagghhhh

And as jon said, results on the 15th...Which could be good but also bad. There is some probability that bad results are discounted as it was coming down, but you never know the level of discount, so...

Split, What thread is that one? I saw a few around, but most seemed to discuss US markets, I might have missed that one. If you send me the link I can take a peep and see how charming you lot are, but you are in for a tough competition

Silvia.

 

[Splitlink]

Split, What thread is that one? I saw a few around, but most seemed to discuss US markets, I might have missed that one. If you send me the link I can take a peep and see how charming you lot are, but you are in for a tough competition

Silvia.

Can't seem to link it to you, but it's right under this one in "Styles & Strategies section, called Swing & Position Trading. Started by techst and has five yellow stars. 100% Footsie shares.

Don't neglect this thread, though, or I'll get ticked off!

Split

 

[Euro_d]

Morning all,
Well, after much searching I can find nothing of interest today.
I remain long:
SIG Flat
SPT Flat
PAG small gain SL @ entry
AGS small gain, SL slightly +

UKX popped at the open breaking my entry @ 69 so nothing there
DAX pulled from my entry (which is support) @ 5033. 5019 is a minor support so if broken might have a small short.

Looks like a golf day!
Good trading
Dave

 

[marben]

‘morning all,

Come on ENGLAND :cheesy:

Had a busy weekend, backtesting various indicators. Concluded that there is a serious problem with using weekly MACD direction changes as a signal: they give loads of false signals in strongly trending markets. That explains why my recent trades haven’t been working, though the method did work in the past.

So I’ve developed a new pair of indicators, which detect strong & persistent trends on weekly charts and am using this as the first screen for the “triple screen” system. Backtesting is quite promising. As my revised method is quite new, I’ve reverted to ¼ scale trading until I’m confident with it & have tuned it.

The indicators are currently signalling longs in IPR and EXL (I am aware of the bid situation with EXL). How do those stocks look with methods others use here?

IPR triggered this morning (Elder force index negative but price rose above Friday’s high), so went long @ 236.25.

Good trading all!

Mark

 

[Euro_d]

Hi Mark, sat in front of the screen all weekend eh? Not good!

OK, I like IPR as a longer term play, I cannot see anything that would make me disagree with your analysis.
EXL, Had a major pop as we all know. Seems to have held but it would be a tight stop for me. Certainly one to watch or trade small.

Dave

 

[barjon]

mornin' all

nothing new. still hanging in with aal but will only give it a couple more days to start moving.

gap opening in anto precluded long entry this morning. short possibilities include pru, rbs and av with glh and hg on the long.

good trading (67 for 3 )

jon

 

[marben]

Hi Mark, sat in front of the screen all weekend eh? Not good!

'Fraid so - at least the wather wasn't too tempting. I believe in Arnold Palmer's maxim: "It's funny how the more I practice, the luckier I get" . No-one should think that trading is an easy way to make a fast buck!

EXL, Had a major pop as we all know. Seems to have held but it would be a tight stop for me. Certainly one to watch or trade small.

Yeah, that's how I'm playing it. As I said I'm only trading at 1/4 scale until I'm satisfied with my new method. My stop will be just below the recent low following the pop.

Thanks Dave,

Mark

 

[Euro_d]

'Yeah, that's how I'm playing it. As I said I'm only trading at 1/4 scale until I'm satisfied with my new method. My stop will be just below the recent low following the pop.

Mark

Wow, that's almost 250 points! Too slack for me!
I have used "rule of eights" stops in the past, especially in extreme situations as this one.
Basically you draw the last significant high / low and divide it by eight, if the stock falls to the next eight then out, move up in same proportion.
For EXL that gives (assuming entry today) a stop @ 1168. PM me if you want the theory article.
Alternatively, a Fib retracement would give a stop of 1116.

Fortunately, my charting package draws both.

Cheers
Dave

 

[marben]

Wow, that's almost 250 points! Too slack for me!
Dave

Huh? The recent low AFTER THE POP is only ~50p away (100pts if you're working in 1/2s) . My trading timeframe remains 2-4 weeks, so that's within a reasonable range for that timeframe. As you trade in shorter timeframes, naturally you'd use tighter stops than me & different trading rules. My actual stop position is 1149 FYI [I don't normally like disclosing my stops - gives a bit too much away ].

In my early trading I was frequently stopped out of what would otherwise have been good trades, so I'm cautious about setting stops too tight nowadays.

Just triggered long into that trade @ 1204, so my position is now: short EMG, RSA (old trades), long EXL, IPR.

Cheers,

Mark

 

[Euro_d]

Huh? The recent low AFTER THE POP

Sorry, I understood before the pop.
Good luck with the trade.
Dave