Active day and swing traders

[marben]

Hi all,

I'd be interested in some opinions here: do you think the markets are properly discounting the effect of the US hurricane yet? I have a feeling that they are not (though I don't trade on "feelings" ).

The FT today states "...concern grew that the economic impact of the storm, which has paralysed the oil industry in the Gulf of Mexico could be felt around the globe." I should think that this will at least keep the oil price at or around $70 for a while to come. Except for oil companies themselves, the markets hardly seem to have responded to oil prices way above expected levels for this year. Rising fuel costs will surely damage consumer buying (I think there's some evidence of a consumer slowdown already), as well as damaging profitability of industries dependent on fuel costs.

I strongly suspect that we'll see some profit falls in 6 months time, or maybe sooner.

I have often noticed that the markets are remarkably slow to respond to the bleedin' obvious.

What do others think?

Cheers,

Mark

 

[marben]

Boc

'morning all,

Recent rises in BOC share price being put down to speculation of a possible takeover, possibly by BASF on newswires this morning.

Good trading,

Mark

 

[marben]

Is everyone off playing golf ? Sadly, I'm still chained to my trading desk

Stopped out of JMAT short @ 1153.3. Opened @ 1127.5 on 24/8. Took profits on remaining SGE short @ 223.5 (opened at 235.5 on 23/8, other 50% closed @ 228.25 on 26/8). Daily stochastic still bumping along bottom & price close to my original target, so took profits @ what looks close to an intra-day low (judging by Level 2 data)

Remaining position: Long CPI, SBRY (50%), TATE; short EMG.

Good trading!

Mark

 

[Euro_d]

Golf later, maybe!
OK,
BG going well
BUR Long @ 740 yesterday, SL now locks in 10 points
VED closed for 14 pt gain
CNE Long @ 1767, small trade
AGS Long @ 115
CW a rash play failed, OK small stake and only 4pt loss
IRV is beginning to creep, hell its slow!

I must remember not to be too hasty with my stops. Last month it cost me dear.
Sorry, it just helps me if I write it, memory of "lines" at school. Yes I can still remember!

Bon weekend to all
Dave

 

[Splitlink]

Exercised manual stops on my bank shorts this morning- BARC and AL- with loss of 10.8 points. Have had power cuts this morning which influenced me somewhat and will probably rest now until next week.

No, Marben, I do not think that world markets have taken New Oeleans on board, yet.

Split

 

[Splitlink]

As I said, power cuts caused me aggro yesterday, to the extent that I went out and bought a UPS. Of course, you guys already have one- don't rub it in! We have been having power surges all summer but this is the first time that I saw my shares going against me and closed for safety's sake while the juice was still on. Needless to say, things were not as bad at the end of the day and I would have been still short on BARC although probably not on AL.

Split

 

[barjon]

something for the week-end

A couple of maybe shorts have appeared on the radar - which is the first time for a while.

pru and aal: Both are very iffy, but that's often the case as the trend rolls over. See what you think.

split - glad you've got the electrics sorted, nothing worse than being incommunicado when you've got trades running without a stop in place.

good trading all - enjoy the week-end

jon

 

[Splitlink]

A couple of maybe shorts have appeared on the radar - which is the first time for a while.

pru and aal: Both are very iffy, but that's often the case as the trend rolls over. See what you think.

split - glad you've got the electrics sorted, nothing worse than being incommunicado when you've got trades running without a stop in place.

good trading all - enjoy the week-end

jon

A lot of shares are showing the same characteristics. My take is that the averages are in a firm downtrend and yesterday threw up selling opportunities- pity it was a Friday with power cuts! Breakouts on the upside are possible,too, but I must have my averages pointing up before I go long. The AL I closed is similar except that I use different averages- yesterday I should not have closed but, on the other hand, maybe it was for the best

Split

 

[marben]

'morning all,

Did the research I mentioned over the weekend: FTSE100 volume in August was about 30% lower than in previous months. I don't think this is enough in itself to explain my recent poor performance.

Having done some "soul searching" & "going back to basics" on my trading methods, I think the other key factor was classic overconfidence from previous good results. This, in turn meant that I didn't filter trade candidates rigorously enough, nor interpret weekly MACD signals rigorously enough.

Let's hope I don't make those mistakes again. [I'll probably swing to being overcautious for a bit - but that doesn't do a great deal of harm!]

One new trade on my radar this morning: long ETI. I'm somewhat in two minds on it though because the weekly MACD signals aren't great and it's close to a daily stochastic top. The reasons I'm considering it are recent weekly MACD upturn + pretty decent funamentals + downturn in Elder FI.

What do other readers make of ETI with your methods?

TIA,

Mark

 

[barjon]

mornin' mark,

sounds as though you've got quite a "discretionary" element in your method - can you devise tighter rules for those "interpretive" elements . if you can (and stick to the rules ) that might avoid too loose interpretations arising from overconfidence and too tight interpretations arising from overcaution.

as far as eti is concerned i've got a couple of recent long signals (neither taken) and if i was in i'd be watching the resistance level pretty closely.

good trading

jon

 

[khi]

morning all

Fantastic weekend, unpacking stuff in the sun, still got loads to do, don think i want to move and do this again unless moving to a bungalow for retirement.

anyway, back in action, closed azn earlier and gone short on bg for a punt.

aal look interesting jon, can see it go to sub 1400 before a bounce (if theres one). pru is heading to a down trend too. i am still itching to go long on avz. but still unsure of what to do yet. might end up just leaving it.

all the best mark, and learn from mistakes is defo the way to improve.

kim

 

[barjon]

kim

glad the move's gone well - rather you than me though

short bg you trying to give me more grey hairs, better lift my stop level.

mark

btw my rolling eyes were about my weakness not yours

good trading

jon

 

[marben]

mornin' mark,

sounds as though you've got quite a "discretionary" element in your method - can you devise tighter rules for those "interpretive" elements . if you can (and stick to the rules ) that might avoid too loose interpretations arising from overconfidence and too tight interpretations arising from overcaution....

Hi Jon,

That wasn't quite the issue: my rules were quite clear but (I fear) a bit too simplistic. You're quite right that having a clear set of rules is vital. The "discretionay" element (fundamentals) are used as a filter overlaying the basic rules: filtering out trades where the fundamentals disagreed with the TA.

The trouble was that my first rule was to consider a trade following a change in weekly MACD direction. Having restudied MACD interpretation (and the trades I made) I now realise that this was too simplistic. Not every change in MACD direction signals a change in trend (there are actually 4 cases, according to relative height of consecutive MACD histogram peaks/troughs and direction of price movements). Conclusion: I need to refine my basic rules.

The MACD signal on ETI is not very clear, so I should probably stand aside: there was recently a lower high in the histogram, accompanied by higher prices. this is a strong signal that the uptrend of the last year is reversing. I was looking at this trade because the MACD histogram has just turned up again from a low - but that's not a strong signal.

Regards,

Mark

 

[Euro_d]

Mornin all,
Closed out:
BUR nice quick 10 points
BG 4 points, well could be more but the chart "feels" weak. Naughty, feelings not good
VED 14 points

so that leaves me in:
CNE weak, currently down 12, OK a small trade.
IRV flat still
AGS slightly positive.

Re eti yep I can see some positive signs but I dont like that Fridays action touched the upper Boll band, this is often a warning of change of direction. Good luck but not for me.
Looking at RRS but on D4F the spread is silly 750/774 so I will leave it alone.
LAND, popped at the open (bah!!) so I will wait to see if it breaks free of intraday resistance @ 1470 ish
UKX is flat so nothing there

Good trading
Dave

 

[marben]

Closed out TATE long @ 455.5. Opened @ 459.375 on 4/8.

I'd been looking for an exit to this one over the last few days. Price has persistently failed to move forward, daily stochastic seems to be peaking (at a low level). Exited as price fell below Friday's low, risking further falls.

 

[khi]

gone long on barc.

 

[Splitlink]

Gone short on EMA.

Split

 

[marben]

Well, despite everything, opened an "experimental" trade at 50% size: went long BP @ 629.5.

Applying new knowledge, recent weekly MACD peak suggests uptrend continuation, supported by strong fundamentals. Being rigorous, I shouldn't enter yet because daily stochastic is already in "overbought" territory & FI not yet negative. BUT Level-2 data indicates strong buying support, from levels lower than Friday's low, so this looks like a good buying opportunity.

I'll exit if buying strength isn't maintained this afternoon. If it is & FI crosses negative on EOD data, I'll buy other 50% when price triggers entry.

Good trading all!

Mark

 

[marben]

OK: got out of BP trade again @ B/E. Level 2 strength weaking. I'll wait for a proper entry before I get a slap

 

[marben]

Short ULVR @ 555. Weekly MACD shows strong trend reversal signal. Fundamentals agree that stock is overpriced. Daily stochastic is at a high & Elder Force Index is +ve. Price below Friday's low (entry trigger).