a free gift to total newbies from MajorDutch

[MoonRocket]

There's all sorts of problems with this analogy...

Sure there is and I could point them out.
No analogy fits perfectly.
The point is........You need to know stuff all about stuff to be successful.
There.... I've given you every thing I've ever learnt.

 

[new_trader]

There.... I've given you every thing I've ever learnt.

That was a big mistake. There are 2 things you need to remember that will assure success in life.

1. Never tell people everything you know.

 

[MoonRocket]

That was a big mistake. There are 2 things you need to remember that will assure success in life.

1. Never tell people everything you know.

 

[MajorDutch]

here is a daily chart of GBPDKK. outside bar right off big round number. I didn't take the trade as for me the first trouble area was too close ( that previous swing high @ 8.95) also I would have preferred the bar at a swing high. Look where price is now.

but of course this is all hogwash and hindsight according to some.

 

[scose-no-doubt]

Who said it's hogwash? What people have said is that it's a graphical representation of the underlying causes that they've tried to explain to you. People have also stated that the bar itself causes nothing and to conduct a statistical analysis of their validity over the long term would likely produce similar results to random entry - less if mechanical stops and targets are adhered to.

 

[DionysusToast]

Who said it's hogwash? What people have said is that it's a graphical representation of the underlying causes that they've tried to explain to you. People have also stated that the bar itself causes nothing and to conduct a statistical analysis of their validity over the long term would likely produce similar results to random entry - less if mechanical stops and targets are adhered to.

Exactly.

He takes that as a personal insult...

 

[MajorDutch]

Who said it's hogwash? What people have said is that it's a graphical representation of the underlying causes that they've tried to explain to you. People have also stated that the bar itself causes nothing and to conduct a statistical analysis of their validity over the long term would likely produce similar results to random entry - less if mechanical stops and targets are adhered to.

bwah ha ha. You keep doing your 'analysis' mate I will keep increasing my account size. Didn't realise you were trading just out on the wind up. Of course the bar itself causes nothing it's just a few pixels on my monitor. You cant statistically analyse discretionary trading dude - just cant do it. Mechanical stops and targets would be v. foolish.

 

[MajorDutch]

Exactly.

He takes that as a personal insult...

not at all. very broad shoulders you get all sorts on the internet.

 

[new_trader]

My only objection apart from everything else is the title of the thread. The words ‘free gift’ implies that the information contained within it would be valuable enough to justify a charge but is being given away free (free gift may also be considered tautology). Although there are a lot of vendors who use this site, the overwhelming majority of information is given freely by people dedicating their own time and labour to pass on their trading advice and experience.

N.B: I won't charge you to read this or even to reply to it.

 

[MajorDutch]

My only objection apart from everything else is the title of the thread. The words ‘free gift’ implies that the information contained within it would be valuable enough to justify a charge but is being given away free (free gift may also be considered tautology). Although there are a lot of vendors who use this site, the overwhelming majority of information is given freely by people dedicating their own time and labour to pass on their trading advice and experience.

N.B: I won't charge you to read this or even to reply to it.

totally agree. I wanted to change the thread title soon after I wrote it as I realised it could be misconstrued. sadly the edit function didn't allow me to do it.

 

[scose-no-doubt]

bwah ha ha. You keep doing your 'analysis' mate I will keep increasing my account size. Didn't realise you were trading just out on the wind up. Of course the bar itself causes nothing it's just a few pixels on my monitor. You cant statistically analyse discretionary trading dude - just cant do it. Mechanical stops and targets would be v. foolish.

You say discretionary but to me, discretionary trading encompasses taking a position to capitalise on an expected qualitative outcome. That expected outcome could derive from from liquidity requirements, supply/demand imbalances, risk perception, funding requirements, economic expectation/models, fundamental analysis, piggy-backing, insider information or whatever else. The key is that you have to have a view beforehand. This type of information cannot easily be statistically analysed (to my knowledge) due to it's nature and the fact that markets and their drivers (as well of the drivers of the aforementioned) are in a state of dynamic flux stemming from global socio-economic activity.

Candle patterns are an objective and independent occurrence with a simple 1-step binomial outcome. They either work, they don't, or they work a % of times over a sample. Given this, I fail to see how you can argue that they cannot be analysed statistically. If you need to add other variables in order to satisfy your trade rationale then you're not trading the candles, you're trading your variables.

That's my position anyway.

 

[DionysusToast]

The fnck have you been eating Scose?

 

[bbmac]

Can you imagine if you had posted something,...I dunno...controversial ! Lol

G/L

totally agree. I wanted to change the thread title soon after I wrote it as I realised it could be misconstrued. sadly the edit function didn't allow me to do it.

 

[MajorDutch]

Candle patterns are an objective and independent occurrence with a simple 1-step binomial outcome. They either work, they don't, or they work a % of times over a sample. Given this, I fail to see how you can argue that they cannot be analysed statistically. If you need to add other variables in order to satisfy your trade rationale then you're not trading the candles, you're trading your variables.

That's my position anyway.

I don't trade candle 'patterns' on a mechanical basis but if I did I don't agree that they have a simple binomial outcome. They do if you use fixed stops and targets but that would be a nonsense way to trade imo. What I mean by this is a discretionary trader is likely to set stops and targets in the context of overall price action.

If I discretionary trade using candles, round numbers, overall price action, gut feel total discretion this cannot be tested statistically - I can guarantee you that (and I am no mathematics slouch having studied maths to masters level). You talk about other 'variables'. When you are trading in the context of overall price action this cannot be measured as a variable it just can't. Sometimes things don't have a box/label and cant be measured to trade with discretion you have to accept this.

If you trade on a discretionary basis and measure your PnL over say 1 year this is what is meaningful.

This thread was aimed at total newbies so the last thing newbies should be doing is over complicating things, looking for endless reasons why. Far better keep things simple, observe, demo and work out what works for them.

 

[MajorDutch]

Can you imagine if you had posted something,...I dunno...controversial ! Lol

G/L

Bbmac

Where have you been? I have been taking one hell of a bashing from the the 'TA is mumbo jumbo' crowd.

 

[bbmac]

Yeh I was watching the thread - that's what you get for trying to help ..opened up the old debate again but at least in amongst the mud slinging there have been some intelligent contributions made! For me, I'll stick with this mumbo jumbo till something better comes along. lol.

G/L

Bbmac

Where have you been? I have been taking one hell of a bashing from the the 'TA is mumbo jumbo' crowd.

 

[Splitlink]

Bbmac

Where have you been? I have been taking one hell of a bashing from the the 'TA is mumbo jumbo' crowd. 82+ winning trades in a row was it?

What did you say? 82- winning trades in a row? That's woken me up. Start again Buster!

 

[MajorDutch]

What did you say? 82- winning trades in a row? That's woken me up. Start again Buster!

relax just a joke clearly that wouldnt be possible ever.

 

[Splitlink]

relax just a joke clearly that wouldnt be possible ever.

I know that exagerrations are always on the cards but I was hoping for a bottom line number.


Oh, well!

 

[MajorDutch]

I know that exagerrations are always on the cards but I was hoping for a bottom line number.


Oh, well!

are you beginner joe, next you will be asking for a statement