95% myth

tar said:
the 80% number is for losers across one quarter of the year it is not for who loses in a regular basis , so the numbers include every active account , new, old , the 75% includes everyone lost in one quarter ...
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That would explain why the numbers are so flattering then.
 
4th Q numbers regarding US retail FX profitability
 

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montmorencyt2w said:
Do you have evidence of this?
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Odean definitely and from memory possibly also Barber (although ISTR that was a geographically small Asian subset) et al. Don't have the specific references and realised at the time I should have saved them as this comes up so often.

Methods used were horribly simple - ask the brokers. They are the only ones that know how many accounts they have active during any period of time, how many are inactive etc.

I've written to both the CFTC and the NFA suggesting as part of their new regulations on disclosure they consider excluding inactive accounts from the profitability assessments. No point insisting on 'transparency' when the data is skewed...
 
kwickwool said:
The 95% myth is ******** to anyone entering into this? Would you base you decision on wether you can do something or not on a statistic? Like feck, no chance, it is irrelevant.

What is the only important factor here? It is for you as an individual to look at trading, all the many different perspectives and possibilities open to you and for you alone to calculate if you can make it work. If you can you can and you should be intelligent enough to be able to work that out, so who makes it is irrelevant, could be 1%, 5%, 10%, 50%, all that matters is you being clever enough to be able to work out if you are?
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And you have absolutely demonstrated why, against the odds, bods will still come into the game.

I've written before about the amazing ability of the 99% to imagine they're part of the 1%....
 
Jeez, are we down to 1% of traders being successful? Kinda implies that only ONE person on this thread is making money?
 
TheBramble said:
If we're talking about so far today, yep, count me out.
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Ok, so basically everyone on t2w is full of sh1t?

How about an alternative theory -

10% of traders KNOW what they need to do to make money, but are incapable of following their own plans.. is that possible?
 
meanreversion said:
Ok, so basically everyone on t2w is full of sh1t?

How about an alternative theory -

10% of traders KNOW what they need to do to make money, but are incapable of following their own plans.. is that possible?
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That's still the same thing as being a loser...
 
meanreversion said:
Ok, so basically everyone on t2w is full of sh1t?
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Well, I can only speak for all the others, yes.

meanreversion said:
How about an alternative theory -

10% of traders KNOW what they need to do to make money, but are incapable of following their own plans.. is that possible?
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In all seriousness I'd suggest the percentage of those attempting to trade having all the information they need to do so successfully, is far, far higher.

While the failure to follow their methods must account for a significant number of fatalities, failing to stick with their methods probably mops up the largest percentage of the remainder.
 
TheBramble said:
While the failure to follow their methods must account for a significant number of fatalities, failing to stick with their methods probably mops up the largest percentage of the remainder.
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Sorry, aren't these two things the same? Failure to follow method and failure to stick to method?
 
meanreversion said:
Sorry, aren't these two things the same? Failure to follow method and failure to stick to method?
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No.

Failing to follow your method means you don't so all the things your method requires you to do.
Failing to stick with (the word I used) your method means you get a new method after the previous one delivers two consecutive losses.
 
tar said:
No it doesnt suggest CS is "straighter" we r talking about revenue from the spread now , it suggests IG clients r bigger and they bet big so the revenue is bigger , also u can bet actively with IG not like CS u will be on dealer even your size is 20pound/p , alos u have more instruments and shares to bet on with IG ,also IG has options trading and binaries , i told u it mean many things but the last thing it could mean that CS is honest and they dont take clients money because of their stop loss policy or margin policy ,
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Well, it's a point of view.
Perhaps we should just agree to differ on the above.

infact CS has the lowest "profitable traders" percentage compared to other FX brokers ...
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OK, now we are talking in terms of facts. Do we have the published facts for these other brokers (and shouldn't we be comparing them to other SB firms, rather than FX brokers?).
Do we have the published figures for the percentage of profitable traders from IG, for example, with whom you like to compare CS?

EDIT: OK, looking back, I assume you are comparing them with the list of US FX brokers that you posted.
Sorry had not seen that before.
However, you are still not comparing like with like.
You need to compare CS with other SB firms operating in the UK market (like IG Index).
However, I don't think those figures are available.
Unfortunately, we don't have the boss of IG Index on here to tell us.
 
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TheBramble said:
Odean definitely and from memory possibly also Barber (although ISTR that was a geographically small Asian subset) et al. Don't have the specific references and realised at the time I should have saved them as this comes up so often.

Methods used were horribly simple - ask the brokers. They are the only ones that know how many accounts they have active during any period of time, how many are inactive etc.

I've written to both the CFTC and the NFA suggesting as part of their new regulations on disclosure they consider excluding inactive accounts from the profitability assessments. No point insisting on 'transparency' when the data is skewed...
Click to expand...


I'm sorry, but what are Odean and Barber, exactly?
 
montmorencyt2w said:
Well, it's a point of view.
Perhaps we should just agree to differ on the above.



OK, now we are talking in terms of facts. Do we have the published facts for these other brokers (and shouldn't we be comparing them to other SB firms, rather than FX brokers?).
Do we have the published figures for the percentage of profitable traders from IG, for example, with whom you like to compare CS?

EDIT: OK, looking back, I assume you are comparing them with the list of US FX brokers that you posted.
Sorry had not seen that before.
However, you are still not comparing like with like.
You need to compare CS with other SB firms operating in the UK market (like IG Index).
However, I don't think those figures are available.
Unfortunately, we don't have the boss of IG Index on here to tell us.
Click to expand...
Forex traders are the worst ...
 
Sure the failure group is larger than the successful group. But you have to put the numbers in context. Retail traders cannot hit the floor running. It takes years because we have to filter out 95% of the bull5h!t information out there. Let's look at the facts. What education is available to us? How many scammers are out there leaching off the hopes of others?

The failure numbers reflect a snapshot In time and not a long term reflection of the environment. If a retail trader can persist the endless shovelling of 5h!t there is going to be the inevitable clarity at some point.

The old cliche, Rome wasn't built in a day is true in trading. The only difference between trading and any other occupation, is that trading from a retail perspective comes with a mandatory mountain of 5h!t that needs to be removed before rome can be built.

The longer a retail trader survives, the better the odds are they will make it to success period.
 
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