95% myth

wackypete2 said:
I expect we continue to see a decrease in # of accounts and an increase in unprofitable ones over the next few months. Many profitable traders will either look to move accounts overseas or discontinue forex trading and move to something else, such as emini trading. Just my opinion but I've made lots of friends in the business over the many years and I hear them grumbling, mostly about trading anything in the US.

Peter
Click to expand...

So...trading the emini in the US then ;)
 
It is also of interest that Oanda has one of the largest number of accounts as well.


Paul
 
It does appear that non-discretionary accounts are on the decline. Remember these are US numbers only. Would be interesting to see if any of the larger european firms have increasing #'s of accounts.

Peter
 
tar said:
maybe because Oanda pays interest ...which makes inactive accounts profitable ...
Click to expand...

Michael Greenberg ( forexmagnates ) said:
just cleared this with oanda, they counted active accounts only.
 
shadowninja said:
Neither "95%" nor that site make sense, anyway, without context. Maybe, 100% of the accounts in those two links will blow up by 2050. Or 2030. Or 3320. See my point?

100% of all marriages are successful for the first 1 minute after the vicar announces, "You may kiss the bride." 100% of all marriages end with at least one partner leaving.
Click to expand...

why that website "doesn't make sense"?
 
Is that 3% assuming that the amount you win in a profitable quarter is the same as the amount you lose in an unprofitable quarter?

It's possible that some traders use a "picking up coins on train tracks" strategy, like
writing far out-of-the-money options. It could give you a steady income quarter
after quarter, and then wipe you out all of a sudden. Or the reverse: buying out of
the money options that lose quarter after quarter until suddenly you win the lottery.

I don't know what's the typical $/win vs $/loss ratio. Anyone know any studies on this?
I'm all ears.

arabianights said:
Of course the other thing is, let's assume the traders are completely random... if roughly 25% win per quarter, then only about 3% will win in the year.

Assuming the traders are completely random is not unreasonable with retail forex accounts, to be honest.
Click to expand...
 
shadowninja said:
Neither "95%" nor that site make sense, anyway, without context. Maybe, 100% of the accounts in those two links will blow up by 2050. Or 2030. Or 3320. See my point?

100% of all marriages are successful for the first 1 minute after the vicar announces, "You may kiss the bride." 100% of all marriages end with at least one partner leaving.
Click to expand...

I don't think that these staistics matter to the winners, but it helps to justify the reasons to the losers as to why they lose.

100% of all marriages are successful so I, for instance, go to the new stage.

Hey! I'm still in the game, and so on and, if I am still in the final 28% I feel a certasin sympathy but nothing more, for the 78% that are out of it. We, the survivors, feel that they must have done something very wrong to be in the predicament that they are, but we are still here. The truth is that that is the truth! The 28%, of which I am a part, are doing it right in spite of the horrible, thieving, brokers.

Why is that?

My answer is that, perhaps, they are trying too hard. I am a pensioner trying to make sensible trades as a profitable pastime. The 72% could be young Turks trying to get ahead as quickly as possible. Someone, in recent posts, is quoting 300% profits. Tell me, with your feet on the ground, is that consistently possible and your answer will tell me what percentage you are in.
 
Splitlink said:
I don't think that these staistics matter to the winners, but it helps to justify the reasons to the losers as to why they lose.

100% of all marriages are successful so I, for instance, go to the new stage.

Hey! I'm still in the game, and so on and, if I am still in the final 28% I feel a certasin sympathy but nothing more, for the 78% that are out of it. We, the survivors, feel that they must have done something very wrong to be in the predicament that they are, but we are still here. The truth is that that is the truth! The 28%, of which I am a part, are doing it right in spite of the horrible, thieving, brokers.

Why is that?

My answer is that, perhaps, they are trying too hard. I am a pensioner trying to make sensible trades as a profitable pastime. The 72% could be young Turks trying to get ahead as quickly as possible. Someone, in recent posts, is quoting 300% profits. Tell me, with your feet on the ground, is that consistently possible and your answer will tell me what percentage you are in.
Click to expand...

Good post, and I'm not about to indulge in ageism.

Spitlink, how many years have you been trading and how many have been profitable? Might I also ask what you think your average annual return is - but of course no obligation to tell us.
 
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