461% Return From Fixed Odds Betting ?

Now why do that? Just post here instead for free. Plenty of expertise here. Vince scores because those that dont know will always blindly follow someone that they perceive does know.
 
The problem with the binary bet is that IG won't let you stop loss or place a limit order. I reckon IG make a fortune on these bets.
 
Good point BD, it does mean that you have to watch your position at all times...unless ur v.brave of course ;)
 
Wideboy

in trading - using a leveraged type instrument - you need to be make 100s of % since that is what succesful trades make by default - but of course the opposite side of the equation is that you can also lose in 100s of % -

just make sure your strategy is not just relying on the 50/50 opportunity for win or lose - and if the strategy seems to start to fail - dont fight it - just rethink it - but after 3 months of a positive P&L - it should mean you are onto a winner!
 
hi wideboy
i play the binary bets and i am up from 200% but i am confused from what you said ..

"FTSE down 10-20 at 12pm - entered at 8.5 a few mins ago.

Max risk 8.5*stake. Max return 91.5*stake."

From my understanding with these binary bets if you enter at 8.5 and lost the calculation is 100- 8.5 = 91.5 x stake. I sent an email asking the question and the answer i got from them differs to yours. But i havent put a bet on as you do so u may be right..
I usually wait for 80 + then get in and hope it carries on rising to 100 (or 97). I usually wait 10 mins before close and look at what bets are on, sometimes up/down is still on or maybe 10pt, 20pts etc.. but the losses can be big. I hope you are right cos i will change my ways on Monday..

Rich
 
wideboy
please ignore the pile of poo i just wrote as after reading igindex website again the penny has finally dropped :eek:
I now understand what i am doing and how the bets work and i also realise i have been riding my luck :cheesy: All will change on monday when i get back my losses from IG :devilish:

Rich
 
Had 2 days off this week, back to it now though! Hows your week been so far citroen??
 
hi wideboy,
not been good this week really. i like the binary bets and i see there is a new site for them. Looking forward for the sport binarys

Thx
 
of course IG make a killing from these ..hence there new site binarybets.com !

still made a few hundred quid in 30mins or so near the DOW closing (0-50 buy at 18 ) :)
 
Nice play jk! Thats what I love about the binaries, real opportunities for low risk. At roughly what time did you open that trade?

PS: I have started a new thread for binary betting, hope to see you on there.
 
Wideboy said:
Not by a long shot stevet.

I only trade small amounts, but have been a lot more successful sb'ing in this way than conventionally longing or shorting the index.

Its hard to explain my method but in essence I watch price action and play the reversals. Eg. FTSE gaps down at open, I might then expect the index to rise so I then 'buy' a 'FTSE to finish up' or similar bet at a good price as all the binaries would be weighted for a down day. Prices are quite volatile and you can be 30 points in profit 1 minute then 30 points down the next.
Avoid binaries on a trend day, volatility is the key to these trades.

A good example was yesterdays Dow - I expected it to finish down. Early on the prices were weighted heavily down so too high a risk to enter, so waited, and waited for the index to rise a bit. It did and then I got an entry at just below 30 when the Dow popped its head into +ve territory. Then let it run for a nice 70 point gain at the close.

I never ever trade at a price above 35, too high a risk if it goes pearshaped. Most of my trades are around the 10-20 mark which gives scope for 20 or 30 points during daily movements, or of course if it goes well 80-90 on expiry.

Wideboy
Click to expand...
---------------

OOPS WRONG POST REPLIED
 
Guys,
I am new to the thread, but I have an idea that I would like to test with you on the binary betting. Please, let me know if you see any "flaw" on my reasoning...
I have bet for a while and my strategy so far has been very successful...

Basically the strategy is the following...
In the last 2/3 hours of the market I position a bet on an index (let's say the FTSE100). If the market is significantly high, the price for "ftse100 Up" would be (let's say) around 75. I then position the bet to 75. In a simplistic way, with this bet I have 75% probability to win 25.
If I had to stick with the contract till the end, on the other side i have 25% probability to win 75 (normally the probability is less, since the platform put a spread on it).
If it was like this would be a "sum zero" game. (less than zero, since the platform would win more)

The good point of spread betting is the fact that I can sell the contract that I have. If the market turns around, and goes down toward the negative area the contract will go down as well. I would then limit my loss by selling the contract at a lower price, when I see it is going "red" (let's say at 50).
Under this circumstances I would only lose 25.
Roughly with this strategy, I would win 25 with 75% of probability and lose 25 with 25% of probability. As you can see, it is not anymore a sum zero game...

Does it make any sense?
I have used this strategy, and it turned to be consistently positive.

Any views?
 
giulianopa said:
Guys,
I am new to the thread, but I have an idea that I would like to test with you on the binary betting. Please, let me know if you see any "flaw" on my reasoning...
I have bet for a while and my strategy so far has been very successful...

Basically the strategy is the following...
In the last 2/3 hours of the market I position a bet on an index (let's say the FTSE100). If the market is significantly high, the price for "ftse100 Up" would be (let's say) around 75. I then position the bet to 75. In a simplistic way, with this bet I have 75% probability to win 25.
If I had to stick with the contract till the end, on the other side i have 25% probability to win 75 (normally the probability is less, since the platform put a spread on it).
If it was like this would be a "sum zero" game. (less than zero, since the platform would win more)

The good point of spread betting is the fact that I can sell the contract that I have. If the market turns around, and goes down toward the negative area the contract will go down as well. I would then limit my loss by selling the contract at a lower price, when I see it is going "red" (let's say at 50).
Under this circumstances I would only lose 25.
Roughly with this strategy, I would win 25 with 75% of probability and lose 25 with 25% of probability. As you can see, it is not anymore a sum zero game...

Does it make any sense?
I have used this strategy, and it turned to be consistently positive.

Any views?
Click to expand...

Hi

Completely rational thinking, and I've been doing something similar on 5-min binaries (at this point the oldies shout shock/horror!).

Just to put in my 2-pennies worth though:

There are times when price could drop to say 50 (or whatever your stop) then rise back up to 100. In this case, the action would be one of the 75% but you would not have taken advantage and it would be one of your 25 point losses. Therefore the overall ratio turns out to be very different from 75/25.

Also, do not underestimate the spread, it really takes a chunk out of the overall p/l.

I think this stratregy works for certain timeframes and certain indices i.e. when there is little volitility.

Good luck, would like to hear how you get on!

J
 
jel31 said:
Hi

Completely rational thinking, and I've been doing something similar on 5-min binaries (at this point the oldies shout shock/horror!).

Just to put in my 2-pennies worth though:

There are times when price could drop to say 50 (or whatever your stop) then rise back up to 100. In this case, the action would be one of the 75% but you would not have taken advantage and it would be one of your 25 point losses. Therefore the overall ratio turns out to be very different from 75/25.

Also, do not underestimate the spread, it really takes a chunk out of the overall p/l.

I think this stratregy works for certain timeframes and certain indices i.e. when there is little volitility.

Good luck, would like to hear how you get on!

J
Click to expand...

Yep,
you got all the points.. they are all correct..

My balance has been positive all weeks.. I lost money when I didn't stick to the strategy... damn "animal spirit"...

I have started as well on the 5 minutes bet.. but it is too volatile.. I prefer 20 minutes..
G.
 
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