24-Hour FX Targets

[Dave Floyd]

FX Podcast

Just an an FYI.....on Wednesday May 17th at 5:30 AM PDT I will be appearing on CNBC World's 'Foreign Exchange' program to discuss the current FX market.

If you cannot tune in, it will be available by Podcast - FX Podcast

Dave

 

[fxmarkets]

hmmm, Dave not sure if you go longer range but do you see or sense the dollar marking down 15/20+% from current levels looking forward 18 months or so? I can just visualise all the savvy commentators and such on TV with Wads of Euro's hanging out of their top pockets. Saying" Dollar crisis what dollar crisis?"

Are you long term dollar bearish to crisis levels ? and what would be a crisis level in your view?
Fx.

 

[Dave Floyd]

Wednesday's Targets & Levels

* Bear in mind, with the CPI data due out in 90-minutes the 'Current Bias' reflected in the table below does not factor in the effects of a out of consensus CPI. As of now, the general bias is for a weak dollar, and naturally this could change. The technical levels will remain valid however.

Dave

 

[Dave Floyd]

Dollar Crisis?

hmmm, Dave not sure if you go longer range but do you see or sense the dollar marking down 15/20+% from current levels looking forward 18 months or so? I can just visualise all the savvy commentators and such on TV with Wads of Euro's hanging out of their top pockets. Saying" Dollar crisis what dollar crisis?"

Are you long term dollar bearish to crisis levels ? and what would be a crisis level in your view?
Fx.

Good question - I will reply later today.

Dave

 

[Dave Floyd]

Dollar Direction

hmmm, Dave not sure if you go longer range but do you see or sense the dollar marking down 15/20+% from current levels looking forward 18 months or so? I can just visualise all the savvy commentators and such on TV with Wads of Euro's hanging out of their top pockets. Saying" Dollar crisis what dollar crisis?"

Are you long term dollar bearish to crisis levels ? and what would be a crisis level in your view?
Fx.

While from a structural standpoint, the dollar may well go lower, I am not sure a crisis is looming, based on what we know today. What I think is a better overall idea is to be short the Euro, not versus the dollar, but against Asian currencies, specifically EUR/JPY.

The rationale is simple, the Eurozone is by no means as robust, economically speaking, as the US. If not for Germany, economic growth in Europe would be pathetic. That does not mean it will outperform the dollar since EUR is the most obvious choice for a bearish dollar play.

So why try to pick the winner between 2 dogs? Short EUR vs Asia is a far better bet.

 

[fxmarkets]

cheers dave, I can see the Asian play logic,makes sense on a medium term providing we have a relative global stability cycle, but if the perception of US dollar quality issues accelerates then would the flight be to Euros regardless of Eurozone growth, Global perception of US Dollar Integrity I guess is a question I can see being considered from this point on not only the integrity but the monopoly of the greenback as an international reserve also coming under pressure from the future of oil pegged to Euro's in the middle east,I would of thought if this was the outcome is Allowed to happen then a sustained dollar revaluation of sorts would be immenent.


Whats your view on petrodollars and any likely effects on USD. ?

 

[Dave Floyd]

Dollar question

cheers dave, I can see the Asian play logic,makes sense on a medium term providing we have a relative global stability cycle, but if the perception of US dollar quality issues accelerates then would the flight be to Euros regardless of Eurozone growth, Global perception of US Dollar Integrity I guess is a question I can see being considered from this point on not only the integrity but the monopoly of the greenback as an international reserve also coming under pressure from the future of oil pegged to Euro's in the middle east,I would of thought if this was the outcome is Allowed to happen then a sustained dollar revaluation of sorts would be immenent.


Whats your view on petrodollars and any likely effects on USD. ?

Thanks FX - I will get to answer your question in the next day or so....

Dave

 

[Dave Floyd]

Monday's Technical Levels

Monday's Targets & Levels (although there are no price targets for today)....

.....we are watching USD/CHF as a possible short as it is still unable to 'escape' the 240-min bear trend-channel at 1.2153 prices seem poised to move sideways with a slight downward bias. Watch 1.2082 for key support.

FX Desktop Ticker

 

[Dave Floyd]

Dollar Weakness?

cheers dave, I can see the Asian play logic,makes sense on a medium term providing we have a relative global stability cycle, but if the perception of US dollar quality issues accelerates then would the flight be to Euros regardless of Eurozone growth, Global perception of US Dollar Integrity I guess is a question I can see being considered from this point on not only the integrity but the monopoly of the greenback as an international reserve also coming under pressure from the future of oil pegged to Euro's in the middle east,I would of thought if this was the outcome is Allowed to happen then a sustained dollar revaluation of sorts would be immenent.


Whats your view on petrodollars and any likely effects on USD. ?

Excellent points - and to play devil's advocate, consider the argument that this whole idea of structural imbalances is a fear mongering excercise - which countries have performed best in the last 20 years, regardless of trade and budget imbalances? The US, Australia, Britain have all done better than Japan, Germany & Saudi Arabia - perhaps the US is simply working as the worlds banker as wealth accumulation in emerging economies allows for capital flows to be channeled to countries that are perceived to be more stable with property rights. This would go a long way to explaining the current account deficit.

So, while I hold a degree in Economics, I certainly do not profess to be an expert on macro policy, nor do I make any given trade on macro analysis (but it does help me identify trades). I think the simple answer is, it will matter when it matters. When that is, I have no clue.

I would suggest that if readers want more information regarding the above argument, they read the article by Anatole Kaletsky dated May 8th titled 'Do Imbalances Matter' at www.gavekal.com

 

[fxmarkets]

Excellent points - and to play devil's advocate, consider the argument that this whole idea of structural imbalances is a fear mongering excercise

Cheers Dave, its working.

Thanks for the link.

 

[Dave Floyd]

Wednesday's Targets & Levels

As you will see on today's Targets & Levels we simply are not providing a 'Current Bias' with the exception of NZD/USD - price action remains too choppy to predict with any degree of accuracy a sustained price path. The support and resistance levels however are relevant, and provide the best way for our clients to identify entry/exit points for intra-day trades.

Dave

FX Desktop Ticker

 

[Dave Floyd]

Tuesday's Targets & Levels

Here Are 3 Short-Term Trade Set-Ups
We have three pairs today that offer solid set-ups over the next 24-48 hours, those being USD/JPY, USD/CHF and NZD/USD - a couple of footnotes:

- entries for 24-Hour Target Trades are typically made at the time of posting (i.e. 5:05 AM PDT for today)
- given that there has been a big move overnight, prices still may pullback a bit more before resuming their path towards our projected target prices. Hence, traders may wish to scale into these trades at current levels and at the levels noted below

USD/JPY - 112.30
USD/CHF - 1.2155
NZD/USD - .6375

Looking at the Dollar Index (DXC) from a longer-term perspective, the long holiday weekend ushered in more selling in the dollar (DXC). In fact, the sell-off that began on Monday has now resulted in an outright sell signal based on our weekly model. While our weekly model has been quite effective with signals over the last year, it is key to remember that these signals project out price direction that may last several weeks/months.

On a short-term basis, DXC is finding support on the 60-min chart at 84.27 and appears poised to rally towards 84.45-50 before resuming the downtrend.

Launch FX Desktop Ticker

Dave

 

[Dave Floyd]

Adjust Stop-Loss

Here Are 3 Short-Term Trade Set-Ups
We have three pairs today that offer solid set-ups over the next 24-48 hours, those being USD/JPY, USD/CHF and NZD/USD - a couple of footnotes:

- entries for 24-Hour Target Trades are typically made at the time of posting (i.e. 5:05 AM PDT for today)
- given that there has been a big move overnight, prices still may pullback a bit more before resuming their path towards our projected target prices. Hence, traders may wish to scale into these trades at current levels and at the levels noted below

USD/JPY - 112.30
USD/CHF - 1.2155
NZD/USD - .6375

Looking at the Dollar Index (DXC) from a longer-term perspective, the long holiday weekend ushered in more selling in the dollar (DXC). In fact, the sell-off that began on Monday has now resulted in an outright sell signal based on our weekly model. While our weekly model has been quite effective with signals over the last year, it is key to remember that these signals project out price direction that may last several weeks/months.

On a short-term basis, DXC is finding support on the 60-min chart at 84.27 and appears poised to rally towards 84.45-50 before resuming the downtrend.

Launch FX Desktop Ticker

Dave

We highly recommend lowering your stop-loss to break-even on the 24-Hour Target Trades and possibly trailing the stop-loss lower too

 

[tm.appleby]

We highly recommend lowering your stop-loss to break-even on the 24-Hour Target Trades and possibly trailing the stop-loss lower too

Dear Sir

Are people following your advice and trading on your recommendations.

Are they getting a positive return on investment.

If this is the case can you provide any checkable testimonials from your clients.

Thanks

 

[Dave Floyd]

Performance Metrics

Dear Sir

Are people following your advice and trading on your recommendations.

Are they getting a positive return on investment.

If this is the case can you provide any checkable testimonials from your clients.

Thanks

We have a couple of comments from our clients posted on this web page - www.aspentrading.com/research.php - if you wish to see performance records for our service, simply email [email protected] or visit this page for performance data on our FX Managed account program - www.aspentrading.com/autotrade_performance.php

You can always get a real-time sampling of our research by launching our
FX Desktop Ticker

 

[tm.appleby]

Hi,

What would be the return, based on previous trading gains, I could expect from an investment of 2-4m (US)

Your figures will have to be independently verifiable, you understand.


Thanks you

TM

 

[Dave Floyd]

Performance answer

Hi,

What would be the return, based on previous trading gains, I could expect from an investment of 2-4m (US)

Your figures will have to be independently verifiable, you understand.


Thanks you

TM

Not sure I understand the question - if you are referring to what the return would be on the you trading off our research, it would be a function of how many lots were traded on a per trade basis -

 

[Dave Floyd]

DXC Outlook - Long & Short-term

On the heels of the ISM data - possible short-term support area for Dollar Index (DXC) at 84.88 - the break of 85.06 violates the lower level of the bull trend-channel that started on the 5/23 swing low at 84.08.

Long-term DXC technicals can be seen in the chart below.

FX Desktop Ticker

Dave

 

[rjay]

The 'FX Targets Manual' PDF appears to be corrupted - can someone add another copy to the thread ??

 

[Dave Floyd]

PDF file

The 'FX Targets Manual' PDF appears to be corrupted - can someone add another copy to the thread ??

I just clicked on the link and it worked fine, I posted it again below, maybe that will help.

Dave