mb325
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5 trades in total today, which is more than I want to be taking really, I didn't feel like it at the time but maybe trending towards over-trading. I'm aware though that I need to keep swinging the bat or the one I miss will be the big winner. I finished up feeling quite disheartened due to losing around 1.5R, but after reviewing I'm much happier as the trades I took in my opinion were good trades even in hindsight.
First trade was a trade I couldn't refuse. Obvious build-up for a breakout to the upside, with price behaving nicely and testing the previous high almost to the tick. I could definitely make the argument that I should've pulled the plug sooner though.
Second trade was a long attempt on EUR/USD in a zone of potential support, admittedly not the cleanest. I'm happy in that price traded at my PT1 so that suggests my level choice is not terrible, and I protected myself so that after nearly hitting PT1 i did not take a loss.
Third trade was another attempt at long GBP/USD on a break of the highs. Bit of a false break and maybe the lesson is to be more careful on the second attempt at breaking the high of the day, could suggest there is a lot of selling pressure if it's already failed once. Again possibly a bit too slow to pull the plug.
Fourth trade, probably the worst in terms of the strength of the entry in my opinion. Cut it fairly quickly though and that was the right choice.
Fifth trade, again not a fantastic setup but just because the candles don't look good doesn't mean price isn't behaving how I want. Can't complain too much at a scratch attempt at a long following 2 big waves of sell-offs, had to be aggressive with the protection.
Main lesson learnt I think is I can be much more aggressive to cut things that aren't going my way quick enough. It's all about getting onboard momentum and if its not getting near BE-point or PT1 quickly then something isn't right.
I'm amazed at how beneficial I'm finding writing this all down already, first serious attempt at a journal, would recommend.
First trade was a trade I couldn't refuse. Obvious build-up for a breakout to the upside, with price behaving nicely and testing the previous high almost to the tick. I could definitely make the argument that I should've pulled the plug sooner though.
Second trade was a long attempt on EUR/USD in a zone of potential support, admittedly not the cleanest. I'm happy in that price traded at my PT1 so that suggests my level choice is not terrible, and I protected myself so that after nearly hitting PT1 i did not take a loss.
Third trade was another attempt at long GBP/USD on a break of the highs. Bit of a false break and maybe the lesson is to be more careful on the second attempt at breaking the high of the day, could suggest there is a lot of selling pressure if it's already failed once. Again possibly a bit too slow to pull the plug.
Fourth trade, probably the worst in terms of the strength of the entry in my opinion. Cut it fairly quickly though and that was the right choice.
Fifth trade, again not a fantastic setup but just because the candles don't look good doesn't mean price isn't behaving how I want. Can't complain too much at a scratch attempt at a long following 2 big waves of sell-offs, had to be aggressive with the protection.
Main lesson learnt I think is I can be much more aggressive to cut things that aren't going my way quick enough. It's all about getting onboard momentum and if its not getting near BE-point or PT1 quickly then something isn't right.
I'm amazed at how beneficial I'm finding writing this all down already, first serious attempt at a journal, would recommend.
mb325
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One trade today and it was a bad one, looking to get aboard the EUR/USD sell-off via a re-test of the PDL outlined on my initial levels. Definitely a case of chasing the trade and looking for a setup, a full loss of -1R.
I've been quite good up until now at looking at a potential setup as if I'm looking back at it from the future and imagining how I'd feel about getting into a trade that looked like that (I'm barely making sense but I know what I mean and that's all that matters) - if I think I'd be 'ashamed' of taking it, i'd skip it.
Looking at the first chart now maybe I'm giving myself a bit of a hard time, but the second chart makes it look quite bad and I don't mind giving myself a hard time if I can learn from lessons from it:
1) Wait for price to get to my levels before trading (I haven't shown but I avoided a few losing trades today by sitting on my hands).
2) Do not compromise on setups, I can afford to be patient and wait for price to behave how I want. If I can't see it on a 15m chart I don't want to trade it.
3) Be more clinical cutting when not going my way.
I've been quite good up until now at looking at a potential setup as if I'm looking back at it from the future and imagining how I'd feel about getting into a trade that looked like that (I'm barely making sense but I know what I mean and that's all that matters) - if I think I'd be 'ashamed' of taking it, i'd skip it.
Looking at the first chart now maybe I'm giving myself a bit of a hard time, but the second chart makes it look quite bad and I don't mind giving myself a hard time if I can learn from lessons from it:
1) Wait for price to get to my levels before trading (I haven't shown but I avoided a few losing trades today by sitting on my hands).
2) Do not compromise on setups, I can afford to be patient and wait for price to behave how I want. If I can't see it on a 15m chart I don't want to trade it.
3) Be more clinical cutting when not going my way.
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Too busy to update yesterday. The trade I mentioned in the above post made it to PT1 but probably would've been a B/E attempt.
I had two others, both attached. First was a long on E/U which was stopped for B/E (and would've been a full loss otherwise). Second was a short on G/U which was stopped for B/E and also would've been a full loss...so...not too unhappy with yesterday.
I do feel like I missed a bit of a sitter with the last G/U chart attached, getting in on a larger swing via a 1-2-3.
I had two others, both attached. First was a long on E/U which was stopped for B/E (and would've been a full loss otherwise). Second was a short on G/U which was stopped for B/E and also would've been a full loss...so...not too unhappy with yesterday.
I do feel like I missed a bit of a sitter with the last G/U chart attached, getting in on a larger swing via a 1-2-3.
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mb325
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Managed to catch the move in cable today. It *looks* like a great trade as I should make at least 2R on it but in all honesty I should've pulled the plug on it sooner, but I had a 'hunch' (as much as I hate them) that we would be going higher so gave it a lot more room than I normally would.
I took half off for 0.6R at the first green line.
A quarter off at the second green line for 0.86R.
And took off a tenth of the position as we tested previous highs at the third green line.
*Grabs calculator* that leaves 15% of my original position on and I'm holding onto that looking for a sustained break above 1.55.
There is a case to be made for the stop-and-reverse off a 1-2-3 near the highs but I was busy with work stuff at the time and missed it.
I took half off for 0.6R at the first green line.
A quarter off at the second green line for 0.86R.
And took off a tenth of the position as we tested previous highs at the third green line.
*Grabs calculator* that leaves 15% of my original position on and I'm holding onto that looking for a sustained break above 1.55.
There is a case to be made for the stop-and-reverse off a 1-2-3 near the highs but I was busy with work stuff at the time and missed it.
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mb325
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mb325
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ECB news conference quickly stopped my G/U long out at breakeven, +2R for the trade, feel like I'm not going to be making enough on winners so something to look into.
I did decide to trade the corrective price action on E/U which I noted above (post 35) but only in 25% of my normal size as it was over a big news event. I had a sell stop below the low which got slipped 3 pips, a small 5 pip stop, took half off to cover my risk (a bit wussy in hindsight), took 25% off at the first green line and the last 25% off at the second, as you can see I left quite a bit on the table but at the time it felt right.
Return on the trade was in the vicinity of 7R but as it was a quarter of my normal size I'm counting it as 1.75R.
I did decide to trade the corrective price action on E/U which I noted above (post 35) but only in 25% of my normal size as it was over a big news event. I had a sell stop below the low which got slipped 3 pips, a small 5 pip stop, took half off to cover my risk (a bit wussy in hindsight), took 25% off at the first green line and the last 25% off at the second, as you can see I left quite a bit on the table but at the time it felt right.
Return on the trade was in the vicinity of 7R but as it was a quarter of my normal size I'm counting it as 1.75R.
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mb325
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I think Elliot Wave theory has some application when the wave count and price action is blindingly obvious. My knowledge is not what it should be but I'm in the process of learning.
I think the last 24 hours of GBP/USD price action fits quite well. 3 Waves down yesterday each corrected by small rally (5 waves in total), and then overnight and this morning a correction fitting the sideways A-B-C digging into resistance template, similar to that which preceded the sell-off in E/U which I caught yesterday.
Would like to short via a 1-2-3 at the high of the channel or if given a nice continuation play at the lows.
I think the last 24 hours of GBP/USD price action fits quite well. 3 Waves down yesterday each corrected by small rally (5 waves in total), and then overnight and this morning a correction fitting the sideways A-B-C digging into resistance template, similar to that which preceded the sell-off in E/U which I caught yesterday.
Would like to short via a 1-2-3 at the high of the channel or if given a nice continuation play at the lows.
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Couple of attempts at cable today, first attempt was for breakeven (first chart).
Second attempt was a great entry but I pulled the plug a bit early and it sailed off without me, -.5R.
Third attempt was another quarter size trade on a break of the low, took half off to cover risk at 1R and took the rest off at 3x my original risk, so roughly 3.5R on the trade although as only a quarter of the size its actually 0.865R
Second attempt was a great entry but I pulled the plug a bit early and it sailed off without me, -.5R.
Third attempt was another quarter size trade on a break of the low, took half off to cover risk at 1R and took the rest off at 3x my original risk, so roughly 3.5R on the trade although as only a quarter of the size its actually 0.865R
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E/U displayed similar corrective price action and I managed to catch the top of the channel. Took half off for slightly better than .5R, quarter off for 3R, last quarter off for 5R, net return was 2.8R.
Interesting to note the ending diagonal as higlighted on my last chart, I would trade the reversal if presented but its Friday night.
Interesting to note the ending diagonal as higlighted on my last chart, I would trade the reversal if presented but its Friday night.
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mb325
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I need to start keeping an excel spreadsheet with records of these trades but just going off this journal, stats so far:
18 Trades
6 Losses a/v 0.53R
6 Break-evens
6 Winners a/v 1.54R
If I'd traded the two smaller trades in full size average win would be 2.85R, and technically it is 2.85R as it's return per unit of risk (R), but I would rather think in terms of how much I'd normally risk on a trade with is 1% of my account.
Very happy with these stats, I'm net up 6R and average winners are 3x that of average losers with essentially a 50:50 hit-rate (ignoring breakevens).
The bulk of returns did come from some large moves in the last few days but I don't feel like I got lucky as I called the context in advance (corrective price action) and was patient waiting for good entries at good levels. This style of trading will tend to rely on a smaller amount of large wins so it's nothing to worry about.
Will be concentrating on reducing the average loss by being willing get out sooner, and increasing the average win by looking to take off my first half at better than 1R.
I'm toying with the idea of sizing up my trades off swings as I have been (so e.g. if 1R = £100 and I need a 20 pip stop that will be £5 pp) BUT using a standard stop size of maybe 5-8 pips above my entry level. Trades should be going my way asap so this is an interesting way to cut those that don't. I think size of spread is pretty prohibitive for this though.
18 Trades
6 Losses a/v 0.53R
6 Break-evens
6 Winners a/v 1.54R
If I'd traded the two smaller trades in full size average win would be 2.85R, and technically it is 2.85R as it's return per unit of risk (R), but I would rather think in terms of how much I'd normally risk on a trade with is 1% of my account.
Very happy with these stats, I'm net up 6R and average winners are 3x that of average losers with essentially a 50:50 hit-rate (ignoring breakevens).
The bulk of returns did come from some large moves in the last few days but I don't feel like I got lucky as I called the context in advance (corrective price action) and was patient waiting for good entries at good levels. This style of trading will tend to rely on a smaller amount of large wins so it's nothing to worry about.
Will be concentrating on reducing the average loss by being willing get out sooner, and increasing the average win by looking to take off my first half at better than 1R.
I'm toying with the idea of sizing up my trades off swings as I have been (so e.g. if 1R = £100 and I need a 20 pip stop that will be £5 pp) BUT using a standard stop size of maybe 5-8 pips above my entry level. Trades should be going my way asap so this is an interesting way to cut those that don't. I think size of spread is pretty prohibitive for this though.
