What is % of account risked and where is you stop loss? Do you have a take profit target?
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What is % of account risked and where is you stop loss? Do you have a take profit target?
Stopped out for 30 pip loss. I should have waited until it was clear that support was broken. In the back of my head I knew it. BUt instead I made a mistake I have made before. Taking a trade the day after not taking a trade in which I was hesitant but would have won if I took it. Trying to make up for missed opportunity instead of just waiting for the next best set up. I really need to stick to my first thoughts as these generally seem to be correct instead of trying to make myself justify an entry. Some news about new elections in greece probably also played a part in the movement of price. Tough to predict things like that, just have to roll with the punches. A loss but a lesson learned from loss.
Win-0
Loss-1
Win-0
Loss-1
What is % of account risked and where is you stop loss? Do you have a take profit target?
I was wary of this trade so I only took 1% risk and stop loss was 30 pips vs target of 60 pips.
Actually stoploss is always 30 and take profit is 60 for 1:2 risk reward. This was not a quality entry but there were some reasons to take it. The news pushed price out of my favor and I was not expecting that. The retrace upwards is probably now in play and I will wait until I see price turn back before I seek short again. Will wait on the sidelines.
Prep for the day:
3rd resistance is 103.53
2nd resistance is 103.12
1st resistance is 102.72
Pivot 102.31
1st support 101.91
2nd support 101.50
3rd support 101.10
So far I have observed that it is best to wait to make a trade until price has touched the 20MA and moved downward, those are the most high probabilty of success at least in my short observation. I have noted that price did pretty much what I expected over the day but an ill timed trade still caused a loss. I will stand aside today as the same reasons are here today. RSI on 4hr is making higher lows while lower lows have been made on 4hr chart. I do not feel to comfortable placing a short in this circumstance. The one thing that makes me think a short could still be in play is that the 20MA and the 61.8% fib retrace are pretty much right in line and appears to be strong resistance. These two together give strong confidence to short. However, news out of japan just came through that GDP growth on upside. That and the RSI divergence are enough for me to play it cautious. I may check the chart at london open anyways to see what happens.
I do not see price surpassing 102.62 or so, maybe not even past 102.55 due to confluence of resistance with 20MA and fib. May test lows down to S1 and maybe a little past to 101.83.
My prediction is a high of around 102.65 and a low of 101.83.If the news is taken positively by London price could also see rise to R2 and maybe to around 103.20.
Other reasons for holding off on trade include RSI on daily is below 30 I made the mistake yesterday of placing a trade despite this and I wont do it again unless this last support is broken. I am interested to see if I have gotten any better at understanding price action as I desire to move away from indicators in the future although I feel I will always use at least BB bands and RSI they just fit my style.
So I will test my discipline and stand aside and watch and learn.
3rd resistance is 103.53
2nd resistance is 103.12
1st resistance is 102.72
Pivot 102.31
1st support 101.91
2nd support 101.50
3rd support 101.10
So far I have observed that it is best to wait to make a trade until price has touched the 20MA and moved downward, those are the most high probabilty of success at least in my short observation. I have noted that price did pretty much what I expected over the day but an ill timed trade still caused a loss. I will stand aside today as the same reasons are here today. RSI on 4hr is making higher lows while lower lows have been made on 4hr chart. I do not feel to comfortable placing a short in this circumstance. The one thing that makes me think a short could still be in play is that the 20MA and the 61.8% fib retrace are pretty much right in line and appears to be strong resistance. These two together give strong confidence to short. However, news out of japan just came through that GDP growth on upside. That and the RSI divergence are enough for me to play it cautious. I may check the chart at london open anyways to see what happens.
I do not see price surpassing 102.62 or so, maybe not even past 102.55 due to confluence of resistance with 20MA and fib. May test lows down to S1 and maybe a little past to 101.83.
My prediction is a high of around 102.65 and a low of 101.83.If the news is taken positively by London price could also see rise to R2 and maybe to around 103.20.
Other reasons for holding off on trade include RSI on daily is below 30 I made the mistake yesterday of placing a trade despite this and I wont do it again unless this last support is broken. I am interested to see if I have gotten any better at understanding price action as I desire to move away from indicators in the future although I feel I will always use at least BB bands and RSI they just fit my style.
So I will test my discipline and stand aside and watch and learn.
Al requiremnts were met. Took short at 4am open of candle at 102.20 target 101.60. Dont want to get to close to S2. Stop loss is break even now as price has moved down past 102.00. The reason I took the trade was due to how price was acting during close of 12am 4hr candle. It was clear price was not going to break above 20MA which has been acting as solid resistance on the 4hr chart.
Al requiremnts were met. Took short at 4am open of candle at 102.20 target 101.60. Dont want to get to close to S2. Stop loss is break even now as price has moved down past 102.00. The reason I took the trade was due to how price was acting during close of 12am 4hr candle. It was clear price was not going to break above 20MA which has been acting as solid resistance on the 4hr chart.
You are posting a winning trade nearly 2 hours and 40 mins after you entered it?
What I learned from today was both good and bad. The bad first, I was pretty dead set against placing a trade for reasons stated above. However, when I checked the chart and price action shortly before 4am open I wa swayed to make the trade as it seemed obvious to me that there was a lot of downside pressure. I really need to stick to my analysis and not deviate. This ended up being a proitable trade that went much farther than my take profit target. While the result was good it still seems that I have to discipline better as more times than not the trade will go against me for the reasons that were outlaid. So end result was good but more determination to be selective is still needed. That is how the small few who stay profitable over time do it I am sure.
On other thing I am pleased about is that I feel pretty confident in what the chart is telling me. If I didnt learn anything else while blowing a few accounts it was learning to read a chart. While still a work in progress I can envision movement pretty well. Entry is where I need to focus as sometimes I know the right direction but get in either too early or too late. I may experiment with set and forget it style instead of manually entering at london open as long as price is respecting trend and 20MA on 4hr candle.
On other thing I am pleased about is that I feel pretty confident in what the chart is telling me. If I didnt learn anything else while blowing a few accounts it was learning to read a chart. While still a work in progress I can envision movement pretty well. Entry is where I need to focus as sometimes I know the right direction but get in either too early or too late. I may experiment with set and forget it style instead of manually entering at london open as long as price is respecting trend and 20MA on 4hr candle.
Prep for the day:
3rd resistance is 103.80
2nd resistance is 103.08
1st resistance is 101.96
Pivot 101.24
1st support 100.12
2nd support 99.41
3rd support 98.28
Daily RSI is currently at 23 and 4hr is at 25.
Both charts are either touching or very near BB2 lower end. This is something I must hold fast to as the downward pressure is obvious but it will break my rules to take a trade. I may reasses come london open but as of now there is no trade planned. S1 is basically the same is fib retracement 78.6% level. Could be tough to crack or it could break easily. Lower BB2 on daily is also touching this area. I think this support may hold. May consider short if price reaches near pivot of 101.24
3rd resistance is 103.80
2nd resistance is 103.08
1st resistance is 101.96
Pivot 101.24
1st support 100.12
2nd support 99.41
3rd support 98.28
Daily RSI is currently at 23 and 4hr is at 25.
Both charts are either touching or very near BB2 lower end. This is something I must hold fast to as the downward pressure is obvious but it will break my rules to take a trade. I may reasses come london open but as of now there is no trade planned. S1 is basically the same is fib retracement 78.6% level. Could be tough to crack or it could break easily. Lower BB2 on daily is also touching this area. I think this support may hold. May consider short if price reaches near pivot of 101.24
No trade today as I will strictly follow my rule of no trading first day of the week. I am glad I did so as my sort bias would have caught me in a trade with no edge today. Risk vs reward was not enough. Most of my biggest losses have come on a monday, I will wait to see what the market has in mind then decide my next trade. My bias is still down and I will wait til it shows downward movement again.
I wa itching to pull a trade and I am pleased I did not give in to my tendency to overtrade. Even knowing the pitfalls it is diffiult not to get in the market. Had a shorted at the open of 4am I would have had a 24 pip drawdown which is within the limt and I would currently be about 20 pips in the green at this time, that is just about 1:1 rr and that is not acceptable to me at this time. As it is, I see that my next evolution will be to not even worry about what I "would" have made andinstead feel confident that my decisions are in the best interest of longterm success.
As I am typing the trade would be heading back to break even now so that further validates my thoughts. No looking backward only forward. No loss is better than a loss.
I wa itching to pull a trade and I am pleased I did not give in to my tendency to overtrade. Even knowing the pitfalls it is diffiult not to get in the market. Had a shorted at the open of 4am I would have had a 24 pip drawdown which is within the limt and I would currently be about 20 pips in the green at this time, that is just about 1:1 rr and that is not acceptable to me at this time. As it is, I see that my next evolution will be to not even worry about what I "would" have made andinstead feel confident that my decisions are in the best interest of longterm success.
As I am typing the trade would be heading back to break even now so that further validates my thoughts. No looking backward only forward. No loss is better than a loss.
Quick check of the chart and it looks like things are setting up nicely for a possible short at london open if my strategy is correct. I will have to validate my bias after the close of daily candle at 8pm est. If price stays around current levels then it will be close to the 4hr 20MA just above it. A break below with all other requirements met would allow me to short. As of now a short of around 101.26 looks good if it around this price at london open and heading downward. Trying to get better at percieving price action and using that analysis with indicators and patiently waiting for my set up. I feel some progress has been made in this area already. I am a little suprised at how helpful it actually is to write down toughts and reasons and the benefit it gives.
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