A swing trader with daily ideas...

Hello fellow traders,

My name is Deron Wagner and I am a professional trader and author of several trading books. I recently discovered this forum and thought it would be a good place to connect and share ideas with others in the community.

I maintain a free swing trading blog where I post a daily video with my best swing trading stock and ETF picks for the US markets. I also write a plethora of other educational, trading-related articles on a regular basis. I would like to post a link to that daily video somewhere on this side, as I believe it would be of value to fellow swing traders. However, as I am new to this forum, I want to make sure I go about posting in the correct thread so that I don't get flamed.

If anyone would be so kind as to point me in the right direction, I would be most appreciative.

Thanks and I look forward to lots of interaction with the community.

Regards,

Deron

As one of the more prominent flamers I can safely say that as long as you steer clear of peddling snake oil you probably won't get flamed too much lol.

Ha ha. Fair enough. There are certainly plenty of those people around.

For what it's worth, I have been writing a "no nonsense" daily swing trading newsletter for the past 10 years and am one of the few guys who actually posts the results of EVERY stock and ETF trade, based on when I enter and exit. Others love to give 10 stock trade ideas and then only hype the 3 or 4 that work out well, while ignoring the rest. I can assure you I am not a hypester.

Take a look at my blog and let me know what you think. If I am selling snake oil, just say so.

Cheers,

Deron

Although some of the more high-spirited types might take to calling you "Mr Wanger".

Better than Mr. W*nker.

;-)

Deron

Ok,but make sure you don't fall foul of the guidelines concerning advertising Site Guidelines . The link you provided, for example, goes to your web-site which is considered to be advertising, particularly since you offer things for sale on it.

jon

Hi Jon,

Sure, no problem. I certainly don't want to step on toes. I'll take a look at the guidelines to make sure I am clear.

Question...if I wanted to post my daily video without linking to my site, is there a way to embed the video directly in the post Would that be acceptable?

Deron

barjon said:

Deron

Ok,but make sure you don't fall foul of the guidelines concerning advertising Site Guidelines . The link you provided, for example, goes to your web-site which is considered to be advertising, particularly since you offer things for sale on it.

jon

Click to expand...

thanks for sharing will look in too it, seems like pretty interesting stuff

Hi Morpheus; whats your thoughts on YUM brands chart?

Honestly, What's your average annual return with your trading?

Nice charts!

and I get banning threats for advertising ?

NVP said:

and I get banning threats for advertising ?

Click to expand...

Yes, I did say at the start of this thread that such links were considered advertising. I've been away since then but have now deleted all the posts noting such links. If this thread is to continue the ad links must stop.

Now that we've seen heavy selling pressure in the broad market for the past two days, here is my updated review of key support levels on the S&P 500 Index ($SPX) and Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ):

Price action was horrible on the S&P 500 on Friday (May 4), as it gapped down, trended steadily lower intraday, then closed at the low of the session. In my May 2 commentary, I said, "If the S&P loses support of its two-day low (1,394 at that time) and doesn't recover quickly, we anticipate a retest of the 1,357 swing low in the near-term." With the index now less than 1% above that 1,357 level, our May 2 projection seems pretty likely to occur. If the 1,357 level fails to hold, next significant support is around the 1,340 area. However, I would not be surprised to see a substantial bounce off either or both of these support levels. On the chart below, notice that the S&P has now cracked support of its long-term uptrend line, which should now serve as resistance on any subsequent rally attempt:



Also on May 2, I said of the Nasdaq Composite, "If the Nasdaq is unable to hold key intermediate-term support of its 50-day MA (3,025), it will likely retest the April 23rd swing low of 2,946 as its next move." With last Friday's closing price of 2,956, the index is now just 0.3% above that level, so the Nasdaq will probably test that level in today's session. An "undercut" of the 2,946 area (April 23 swing low) could easily result in a bounce on the Nasdaq. Additionally, unlike the S&P 500, the Nasdaq Composite is still holding above its long-term uptrend line, which coincides with the March 6th low of the 2,900 area. Naturally, I would expect the Nasdaq to find major support at this level:



By cutting half of my long exposure early last week and closing the rest of my long exposure on Friday's open, I was able to limit the losses on open positions to just below the breakeven mark. When the market turns sour, I prefer to lock in gains on winners (if we have any) and raise stops (or sell right away) to limit losses and protect trading capital. Losses are impossible to avoid in this business, but my market timing model typically enables us to step aside with very little damage done to the bottom line, and that is fine with me. Moreover, both my inversely correlated (short ETF) positions, $SOXS and $EEV, zoomed sharply higher as the broad market sold off last Friday. As such, I am modifying the target prices on $SOXS and $EEV, and am also trailing the stop price higher on $EEV only.

If there was indecision going into last Friday's session, one benefit of the sharp sell-off and breakdowns below key technical levels is that we now have a clear sell signal in the market. As a trend-following swing trader, a trend in either direction is always preferable to no trend in the market. Still, I expect to see increased volatility in the market and will be looking to take profits quicker than usual, particularly on leveraged ETFs, and into any market gaps. Despite the strength of the recent selling, now is probably NOT an ideal time to get greedy on the short side of the market, since stocks are quickly approaching major support levels on the major indices.

Patience on the sidelines. Cash is a great position right now.

Stocks closed mixed on Monday on light trade. The day began with the major indices opening lower, but buyers stepped in to move the markets higher for most the session. However, a late bout of selling took the averages off session highs, dampening the day's results. The S&P MidCap 400 showed the most strength yesterday, as it managed a 0.4% gain. The small-cap Russell 2000 tacked on 0.2%. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq closed flat on the day, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.2%.

Market internals were also mixed yesterday. Volume dropped by 6.4% on the NYSE and 9.9% on the Nasdaq. However, on the NYSE, advancing volume modestly outpaced declining volume, while on the Nasdaq just the opposite occurred. Overall, Monday's market internals provided no indication that the current wave of selling might be weakening.

Since early March, the Market Vectors Russia ETF ($RSX) has been one of the weakest ETFs in the market. RSX has been in a clear downtrend for the past 2.5 months, as it has set a sequence of lower highs and lower lows. Last week, on a burst of volume, this ETF lost support near the $29.30 level. A rally back into resistance of this key mark could provide a shorting opportunity in RSX.



The SPDR S&P Regional Bank ETF (KRE) has shown relative strength during the most recent round of selling in the major indices. If KRE can reclaim support of its 20-day and 50-day moving averages and if the market can provide a valid buy signal, this ETF could be in play as a long candidate:




As planned in yesterday's newsletter, we closed our long position in $SOXS at the open for a gain of nearly 9%, with just a four-day holding period. We will continue to monitor SOXS for a potential re-entry, but we generally take profits quickly on inversely correlated "short ETFs." Presently, we remain long ProShares UltraShort Emerging Markets ($EEV), with our protective stop just below breakeven now.

With our market timing model still showing an overall "sell" signal, there is nothing to do on the long side right now other than build a watchlist of stocks that are holding up well (showing relative strength to the market). However, it is very tough for many new traders to sit back and do nothing, even when they know that trading in current conditions (on the long side) is very risky. For example, $NTES triggered a potential buy entry above $60.00 yesterday. We liked the pattern and the big reversal bar action, but market conditions are terrible right now, so this is something we can't buy today over yesterday's high. Some traders may suggest there is nothing wrong with taking a small position in the setup, but when conditions are quickly deteriorating, it becomes very difficult to manage risk. As such, even a small position can easily turn in to a bigger than expected loss. As such, we prefer to hold primarily a cash position at the moment, and are being cautious with respect to opening any new trades.

There is no change to our near-term plan, which is to avoid trading for a few days. With the market in "oversold" territory at the moment, we could easily see a quick two to three day reversal to the upside, so it is a bit late to establish new short entries here. As for the long side, we are forced to lay low until market conditions improve.

Link below is a YouTube video that provides a brief technical explanation of my recent entry and exit into Direxion Semiconductor Bear 3X ($SOXS), which is roughly the inverse of $SMH.

Video review of recent swing trade in $SOXS ($SMH) - YouTube

NOTE TO MODERATOR: I am aware I am unable to link back to my site for these videos, and in the last private message to me, it was indicated that linking to the video on YouTube should be okay (rather than the forum's video section). If I am wrong about this, please let me know and I will correct it. However, if I understood correctly, this saves a lot of time by not re-uploading the video twice. Thanks.

I knew there was a catch. There's always a catch.

themilton said:

I knew there was a catch. There's always a catch.

Click to expand...

A catch? The extensive analysis and market commentary above has absolutely no links or catch that I can see...and the same goes for the hundreds of daily videos on our YouTube channel that show foresight of technical analysis. What am I missing?

morpheustrading said:

A catch? The extensive analysis and market commentary above has absolutely no links or catch that I can see...and the same goes for the hundreds of daily videos on our YouTube channel that show foresight of technical analysis. What am I missing?

Click to expand...

I didn't mean to be rude. I also, didn't see the second page when I wrote that. However, your initial post seems like it can be a little misleading. All too often someone comes along with a brilliant method and "free" help. They'll lure you in with some free information. Then out of no where it's, "oh yea if you want to continue with this awesome informative material, you're going to need to cough up some dough". lol I hope you don't think I'm singling you out. But I've already fallen for one website like that. I apologize for my being a bit skeptical.

So the catch in which I was referring to was whatever it is you have for sale on your website. One of the other members mentioned this on the first page.

Note: I have no problem with someone trying to sell something. There's nothing wrong with trying to make a buck. The problem I do have however, is being deceptive about it. Again this isn't directed towards you. If you're going to sell something at least be up front about it. Does anyone else agree with my madness?

Also, thanks for the material. I've already read some of it and it's pretty informative.

Ok, fair enough. I understand. Actually, there were many more posts that had links to some informative trading articles, but they needed to be removed. So, I'll just post the actual content here on the thread, like I did with the content on page 2.

Obviously, my company has a product to sell, but we also have been putting out QUALITY and free content every day for the past 10 years...there is no catch other than paying subscribers receive more detailed picks with specific entry and exit prices. Nevertheless, a trader could still profit and learn from the abundant free material I share on this thread.

Anyway, I understand where you're coming from...there are indeed a lot of snake oil salesmen out there. But Google my name and I think you will find I am not one of them.

Cheers,

Deron Wagner

themilton said:

I didn't mean to be rude. I also, didn't see the second page when I wrote that. However, your initial post seems like it can be a little misleading. All too often someone comes along with a brilliant method and "free" help. They'll lure you in with some free information. Then out of no where it's, "oh yea if you want to continue with this awesome informative material, you're going to need to cough up some dough". lol I hope you don't think I'm singling you out. But I've already fallen for one website like that. I apologize for my being a bit skeptical.

So the catch in which I was referring to was whatever it is you have for sale on your website. One of the other members mentioned this on the first page.

Note: I have no problem with someone trying to sell something. There's nothing wrong with trying to make a buck. The problem I do have however, is being deceptive about it. Again this isn't directed towards you. If you're going to sell something at least be up front about it. Does anyone else agree with my madness.

Also, thanks for the material. I've already read some of it and it's pretty informative.

Click to expand...

CanI call you "The Wagster"? lol j/k

Anyway, thanks for posting this stuff. I have a few questions if you don't mind as I am interested in Swing Trading.

1. It sounds like ETF's are what you prefer to trade. Are they easier to trade than the stock equities themselves?

2. What do you mean by the inversely correlated ETF's? Does that mean if one is down the other will usually be up?

3. Some of the information sound contradictive. Some of it sounds like now would be a good time to short. But then again it sounds like it isn't a good time to short because of the major indicies are reaching major support levels.