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S&P analysis for Friday 2nd November
Volume and price analysis for Friday 2nd November 07
By Sebastian Manby
A; prices decline, but with a narrow spread indicated that a rally is probable, in this case the non- farm payrolls, looking into the background
you can see a low after the first yellow arrow on the chart.
B; I wonder how many stops were triggered on this bar, a few thousand I would imagine, that is the purpose of the news, a wide range up bar close off the
high with the next bar down, weakness is looming. Markets do not like excessive high volume on up bars as this shows distribution, which the public cannot see as they
cannot read volume and ultimately professional activity.
Point C is potential strength, countermanded by D.
D; Classic ' No Demand/Upthrust' confirming weakness, if the market was strong, why has the closing price closed on the open? supply must be greater than demand, hence 'No demand'
E; Prices are marked down to this point as the big operators are not supporting the market as they have shorted and are waiting to cover at lower prices, this happens at this point E and the following
bar otherwise the close would be at/near the low of the bar, not way above the low.
F; The bar with the yellow arrow indicates that there is little sellers at this level as the volume is low, the big money were active on the previous 2 bars, and so we see a bottom reversal and a sign of strength
G; A previous sign of strength is now followed by a weak bar, this one is an upthrust where the close is very close to the open, the big money are not interested in higher prices at the moment.
H; Another upthrust with a different slant, related to G but a different formation, but the same result of lower prices.
I; This bar appears 3 time in the next few bars and really should be a down bar where the close is very close to the open, so you would deduce that the buyers and sellers are evenly matched, and a possible reversal
could be soon, no a bar that I would trade on for a signal.
J; As prices rally up the volume increases and the close of the bar pulls back from the high on the close, this is a sign that the
market may not have much further to go and supply is starting to swamp demand.
K; Another upthrust, market is now weak as started at point J and you should be ready to short on this bar, it is a very big clue, next bar is an up bar
on low volume confirming weakness.
L; Down she go's, a wide spread to lock you in if you are long and put you under pressure, and also to lock you out if you are waiting to short or close out your longs.
M; Up bar on low volume is 'No Demand' and is a second opportunity to short(if you can see it).
N; An up bar on increasing volume is bullish, and I would expect the market to open higher Monday, I do not read further than the open of the following day. When the small lot traders(public) are out of the market or short, the market will rally.
Volume and price analysis for Friday 2nd November 07
By Sebastian Manby
A; prices decline, but with a narrow spread indicated that a rally is probable, in this case the non- farm payrolls, looking into the background
you can see a low after the first yellow arrow on the chart.
B; I wonder how many stops were triggered on this bar, a few thousand I would imagine, that is the purpose of the news, a wide range up bar close off the
high with the next bar down, weakness is looming. Markets do not like excessive high volume on up bars as this shows distribution, which the public cannot see as they
cannot read volume and ultimately professional activity.
Point C is potential strength, countermanded by D.
D; Classic ' No Demand/Upthrust' confirming weakness, if the market was strong, why has the closing price closed on the open? supply must be greater than demand, hence 'No demand'
E; Prices are marked down to this point as the big operators are not supporting the market as they have shorted and are waiting to cover at lower prices, this happens at this point E and the following
bar otherwise the close would be at/near the low of the bar, not way above the low.
F; The bar with the yellow arrow indicates that there is little sellers at this level as the volume is low, the big money were active on the previous 2 bars, and so we see a bottom reversal and a sign of strength
G; A previous sign of strength is now followed by a weak bar, this one is an upthrust where the close is very close to the open, the big money are not interested in higher prices at the moment.
H; Another upthrust with a different slant, related to G but a different formation, but the same result of lower prices.
I; This bar appears 3 time in the next few bars and really should be a down bar where the close is very close to the open, so you would deduce that the buyers and sellers are evenly matched, and a possible reversal
could be soon, no a bar that I would trade on for a signal.
J; As prices rally up the volume increases and the close of the bar pulls back from the high on the close, this is a sign that the
market may not have much further to go and supply is starting to swamp demand.
K; Another upthrust, market is now weak as started at point J and you should be ready to short on this bar, it is a very big clue, next bar is an up bar
on low volume confirming weakness.
L; Down she go's, a wide spread to lock you in if you are long and put you under pressure, and also to lock you out if you are waiting to short or close out your longs.
M; Up bar on low volume is 'No Demand' and is a second opportunity to short(if you can see it).
N; An up bar on increasing volume is bullish, and I would expect the market to open higher Monday, I do not read further than the open of the following day. When the small lot traders(public) are out of the market or short, the market will rally.
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