Perfect Wave (Gold) - 2010-10

snowrider · Sep 25, 2010

I am starting a new thread for October 2010 with a new name "Perfect Wave". This new thread name might look more powerful than the previous one (i.e., "Wave Count"). My wave counts in last month can be found from:
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/metals/102372-gold-wave-count-2010-09-a.html

For the past long term view, please see:
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/metals/98626-gold-wave-count.html

Elliott Wave reference can be found from:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle

My labeling for wave degrees in different time frames:
Monthly – [[]], [[[II]]], [[[III]]], [[[IV]]], [[[V]]], [[[A]]], [[]], [[[C]]]
Monthly – [], [[II]], [[III]], [[IV]], [[V]], [[A]], [], [[C]]
Weekly – , [II], [III], [IV], [V], [A], , [C]
Weekly – I, II, III, IV, V, A, B, C
Daily – 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, a, b, c
Daily – _1, _2, _3, _4, _5, _a, _b, _c
Hourly – __1, __2, __3, __4, __5, __a, __b, __c

snowrider · Sep 25, 2010

Weekly

Comments are welcome!

slight · Sep 26, 2010

Re: Weekly

snowrider said:
Comments are welcome!

I was surprised by this weeks up-action as well. Didn't think that would happen, fortunately I didn't sell as I had planned at the beginning of the week. Imo this must be the last couple of tries getting gold higher and higher. A correction is overdue. Even the weekly chart is making a 2nd divergence. So no buying for me anymore. Waiting for a good reversal signal. It could take a while though before it fumbles itself out.

snowrider · Sep 26, 2010

Re: Weekly

slight said:
I was surprised by this weeks up-action as well. Didn't think that would happen, fortunately I didn't sell as I had planned at the beginning of the week. Imo this must be the last couple of tries getting gold higher and higher. A correction is overdue. Even the weekly chart is making a 2nd divergence. So no buying for me anymore. Waiting for a good reversal signal. It could take a while though before it fumbles itself out.

I took some loss from my short. I hated that I liquidated all my long position right before Labor Day for the long weekend. After coming back from the long weekend, I hastitated to establish new long. And I started short the market, and it caused me some loss.

Yes, I am thinking the same way. If the market keeps going up, I'll stay sideline. If I see a reversal signal, I'll start shorting it again.

snowrider · Sep 26, 2010

Daily

Comments are welcome!

slight · Sep 26, 2010

Re: Weekly

If I see a reversal signal, I'll start shorting it again.

Yes I would second that, but I am very cautious about that. I will only take breakouts to the downside after a smaller degree wave 1 has been made, no immediate reversal signals for me.

snowrider · Sep 29, 2010

09/28/2010

Last week's shinking Three White Soldiers paved the road for today's flash correction to the point where wave-b and wave-d are of the same size. What's next? If we count the intraday wave from 1 to 9, it's in 9 now. If we count it from a to e, it's in wave-e now. Today's strong bullish candlestick *might* actually become the Last Engulfing top. We have been waiting for a climax or the bear's capitulation. This *might* be it.

slight · Sep 29, 2010

Well well well who would've thought that ... internally, I am looking at wave 5 of 3 .. meaning, there is going to be a wave 5 for this timeframe (4h) as well. it will probably go up more before coming back more significantly...

snowrider · Oct 3, 2010

10/02/2010

Comments are welcome!

Pat494 · Oct 3, 2010

Especially with gold one has to keep in mind the fundamentals too imho

The USA is obviously decided to try and reduce the value of its debt. Well it can't do too much on the reducing wages and austerity measures because being a democracy the pollies daren't annoy the voters. That's THE fatal flaw of democracy but that's another story. To get back to the fundamentals they are printing money out of nowhere to try and inflate their way forward,Robert Mugabe style.
So the price of gold will continue to rise and rise in a zig zag fashion. $1500 - yep just a matter of time

snowrider · Oct 3, 2010

Pat494 said:
Especially with gold one has to keep in mind the fundamentals too imho

The USA is obviously decided to try and reduce the value of its debt. Well it can't do too much on the reducing wages and austerity measures because being a democracy the pollies daren't annoy the voters. That's THE fatal flaw of democracy but that's another story. To get back to the fundamentals they are printing money out of nowhere to try and inflate their way forward,Robert Mugabe style.
So the price of gold will continue to rise and rise in a zig zag fashion. $1500 - yep just a matter of time

I agree. My preferred wave count is exactly in that fashion - zig zag up. Still, I don't rule out the possibility of some centra bank dumping tons of gold at this record high, or the possibility of interest rate increase - maybe not now. If it does not happen, I'll still be cautious about the possible speculator's huge liquidation before december contract's notice date - which could be the turning point of this market.

snowrider · Oct 5, 2010

slight said:
Well well well who would've thought that ... internally, I am looking at wave 5 of 3 .. meaning, there is going to be a wave 5 for this timeframe (4h) as well. it will probably go up more before coming back more significantly...

Slight - I am so obviously wrong. It seems in its 3 of 3.

Pat494 · Oct 5, 2010

snowrider said:
I agree. My preferred wave count is exactly in that fashion - zig zag up. Still, I don't rule out the possibility of some centra bank dumping tons of gold at this record high, or the possibility of interest rate increase - maybe not now. If it does not happen, I'll still be cautious about the possible speculator's huge liquidation before december contract's notice date - which could be the turning point of this market.

Thank god that fool Brown isn't still around to dump more gold AND give the market 2 weeks notice

snowrider · Oct 5, 2010

Pat494 said:
Thank god that fool Brown isn't still around to dump more gold AND give the market 2 weeks notice

Yes. I know that I have been very wrong about this beast since Labor Day. Now I have no idea to get back on the train, but it runs so fast. What I can do now is just to watch.

Pat494 · Oct 6, 2010

snowrider said:
Yes. I know that I have been very wrong about this beast since Labor Day. Now I have no idea to get back on the train, but it runs so fast. What I can do now is just to watch.

Just like me yesterday with the S&P. Come 9pm I wish I had jumped in a lot earlier

snowrider · Oct 8, 2010

10/07/2010

The wave count still follows 10/02/2010's preferred count. Maybe the wave-C is over, and maybe we are in the progress of wave-D's wave-1 now.

Pat494 · Oct 8, 2010

Personally I can't see gold dropping much before it leaps ahead again. All the major eco blocks are desperately vying to devalue their currencies - which means that gold must go up.
China should really stop cheating and let their currency float for a fair competition. Not long before the added US tariff will make up the shortfall and pour money into the US coffers anyway. They have gotten away with a devalued yuan for decades.

snowrider · Oct 9, 2010

Pat494 said:
... China should really stop cheating and let their currency float for a fair competition. Not long before the added US tariff will make up the shortfall and pour money into the US coffers anyway. They have gotten away with a devalued yuan for decades.

Well, the actual reason behind this is that one borrows too much from the other one. The one who owes wants to devaluate its currency in order to reduce the real debt. If the debt were to be settled in yuan, nobody would want yuan to go up anymore.

snowrider · Oct 9, 2010

10/09/2010

Comments are welcome!

snowrider · Oct 15, 2010

10/14/2010

Gold may be waiting for a final thrust to set a new high and form the wave-_3 before a big correction back to previous wave-__4 ($1330-$1340 area) to form wave-_4.

Perfect Wave (Gold) - 2010-10

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