AUD/USD Weekly Swing Top Expected

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FDateTrader

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Based on Fdates cycle analysis, the potential for a weekly swing top in the Australian Dollar is considered VERY HIGH for this week. What this means is that the upside potential does not look good at this time and the downside provides the best trading opportunities for the near term.

A weekly swing top is a weekly price bar as viewed on a weekly price chart that has a higher-high than the previous week's high, and is followed by prices making a lower weekly low than the week in question (such as this week).

Even if the top formed late (say next week instead), the upside potential appears minimal at best and would not provide good trading odds. So this time I am bearish the Australian Dollar for a good correction.

:)
 
Everyone seems to be talking this pair down at the moment, yet its not happened yet. Which worries me and my short position
 
AU - here's me scalp buying above 9215 - but agreeing it should fall again under 9250

I would only be concerned if we went up above 9270 - but even then that could be a gameplay ploy to stop hunt and then set another LH just under 9300

Also my favourite correlation pair - AU and EA - well the EA as not made any new lows since dipping under 4800 - so if EA tries up again - then normally AU will be falling again


Regards

F
 
I hit it short 3 times this week, keeps coming back and taking me out for breakeven. Stop is now at 56 (be). Last try
 
GL - for me over 45 and 50 - and I would be holding my scalp buys on - so let hope it stays under even 33 and certainly 50 - and then I can load some more scalp sells ;-)
 
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FDateTrader said:
A weekly swing top is a weekly price bar as viewed on a weekly price chart that has a higher-high than the previous week's high, and is followed by prices making a lower weekly low than the week in question (such as this week).
Click to expand...

A lower weekly high surely?

You could have a lower low with a higher high which would invalidate the previous week's bar as being the local high.
 
AU - for me supports just above 9200 and 06 / 25 and 33 areas seem to fairly strong and that as helped try above yesterday's high now - with a new interim high of 9247

If we do go above 9250 - I will be taking more scalp buys and really looking for a LH under 9300.

Back under 9230 and 20 then more scalp sells - but would only hold with a breach under 9200

GL today with NFP

Regards

F
 
Forexmospherian said:
AU - for me supports just above 9200 and 06 / 25 and 33 areas seem to fairly strong and that as helped try above yesterday's high now - with a new interim high of 9247

If we do go above 9250 - I will be taking more scalp buys and really looking for a LH under 9300.

Back under 9230 and 20 then more scalp sells - but would only hold with a breach under 9200

GL today with NFP

Regards

F
Click to expand...



Ive been keeping my eye on this pair too...and had a few shorts wiped out in the past month, Im neutral / short on the pair as always let the NFP settle in and see how it opens on Monday.

The key message is dont try to pick the top of the correction...
 
deco101 said:
Ive been keeping my eye on this pair too...and had a few shorts wiped out in the past month, Im neutral / short on the pair as always let the NFP settle in and see how it opens on Monday.

The key message is dont try to pick the top of the correction...
Click to expand...

Hi Deco

With me being an intraday scalper who likes to leave the odd scalps on with stops in profits - I have been fortunate to catch the fall on the EA from 5500 area and March 12th. At one time I had 3 sells on - all with stops in profit - ( one over 400 pips) - but now this month have taken one off - as I saw a change

With me correlating the EA with the AU - i have been scalp buying the AU more since the third week of March - but now think 9300 area might be it.

I am catching interim highs and lows everyday whilst scalping - but as you say - cannot say for sure the AU wil not try over 9310 say - just for the stop hunt.

I am being prepared to scalp buy and hold above 9250 and 65 - but then as all the AU bulls come in again - expect a LH - so that the market as then caught both bulls and sells in the "game"

Under 9206 and 9195 would be holding scalp sells again and using 9248 as my new LH level

Good Luck and wil update here later on today after both news releases


Regards


F
 
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What a boring week. 4 trades all on AUD/USD all stopped out for break even.

Deffo will be watching price action around 9300 next week
 
If its any help .... ive in the past been caught out on corrections in Gold and the Aussie - I have tried to avoid thoughts about guessing the top for a short and waiting for some confirmation, in this case there is a good couple of hundred of pips on offer down to the recent 8x low.

Also multiple timeframes will help in identifying a correction...
 
Hi ffsear and Deco

If you both like trading the AU - happy to assist next week on how i see it intraday and also with regards the different important levels I am watching

Not gone over 9310 yet - but above 9280 still bullish for me on small pullbacks

Regards


F
 
Forexmospherian said:
Hi ffsear and Deco

If you both like trading the AU - happy to assist next week on how i see it intraday and also with regards the different important levels I am watching

Not gone over 9310 yet - but above 9280 still bullish for me on small pullbacks

Regards


F
Click to expand...

Thanks Forexmospherian - I swing trade at the moment but once I go full time trading at the end of the year - I will look at the intraday flows, just to bang in some clean 20-30 pip moves. All about the USD and JPY flows
 
deco101 said:
Thanks Forexmospherian - I swing trade at the moment but once I go full time trading at the end of the year - I will look at the intraday flows, just to bang in some clean 20-30 pip moves. All about the USD and JPY flows
Click to expand...

Notice F is slipping> 1 or 2 pips out on that pullback level 9280
 
Update Monday am 7th April on the AU

High Friday was 9307 / and then we had a pull back to 78 and a scalp buy above 80 which made another LH at 94 - which was breached at 96 early this morning.

Then a LL ploy to 71 - before another rise over the last 5 -6 hrs back up to 9294

For me now I just have a scalp range of 9270 to 9310 - approx 40 pips - and without a breach of either by at least 5 to 10 pips - I have no real high probability on the next bias or intraday direction.

Price structure favours higher above say 9220 / 30 area - but we have to then break the R area of 9307 - 20 area for further rises.

Under 9250 - 20 and then 9200 would say the intraday bias is changing again and for now the highs will remain in place and not be breached at least today

i will be scalping in both direction for this session and then will look again after the US markets have opened

Regards


F
 
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I'm looking for price action setups at .93 or .92 area. I have no directional bias right now
 
took a short on the aud/jpy as there was a lot of yen buying today, the dollar was mixed this morning...proved a richer vein to tap in, I got in at a rubbish price (due to having to go to work at my client site today) but still 20 pips up...

still unsure about the overall direction...
 
ffsear said:
I'm looking for price action setups at .93 or .92 area. I have no directional bias right now
Click to expand...


Hi ffsear

I would agree with you that we are in no directional bias area atm - probably from 9285 down to 9230.

I have taken another scalp buy from 7 00 pm UK time and 9259 /60 - expecting a LH again under either 80 or 94

Above both 81 and 95 - i would be holding scalp buys for another attempt over 9300 and even above 9310

For me if 9245 and then 30 let go - i reckon its a test to low 9200's.

Being a slow Monday with no main news as not helped - but i do see red Aussie news in the Asian session - so that I am sure might be used

EA also falling atm as AU still tries up again - but only in the pair now on 2 NPGT 30% stake sell trades still from March

As i finish typing i have at least got another 10 pips out of the rise with a 5 pips stop - so a RR of 2 approx under the hr - and will still hold and take 30% stake off and leave as a buy with my stop now in profit at 64

Regards

F
 
PAUSE formation warning.

Today (4/7) did not move below the 4/4 low (which would have confirmed 4/4 as a daily swing top and potential weekly top). Rather, it formed an INSIDE BAR.

When you have an INSIDE BAR that follows a higher-high bar, we call that a PAUSE formation.

Usually if a market wants to turn, it turns. Simple as that. But if a market struggles to confirm a daily swing top (not making a lower-low), this often indicates the 'bears' have yet to take control (thus bulls still have it).

4/7 is an important date. So with an inside bar here, we cannot just assume an immediate drop.

While the 'weekly' cycle turn is officially centered for week ending 4/4 (last week), this week would only be 1 weekly bar late of the expected time period.

So here is how I handle such scenarios:

1. Because I'm in expectation of a weekly swing top during this time period, I won't even consider the buy side.

2. Because of the PAUSE formation, I would not just jump in but instead sell at a break below the 4/4 low assuming the 4/4 high is still intact when this occurs.

:)
 
PieterSteidelmayer said:
A lower weekly high surely?

You could have a lower low with a higher high which would invalidate the previous week's bar as being the local high.
Click to expand...

Pieter,

The post I made about swings (believe it was the GBPUSD thread), I believe I made it clear that the swing top is confirmed when you have a LOWER-LOW while the high of the potential top is STILL INTACT.

What you are describing is an OUTSIDE BAR (makes higher-high and lower-low). In such a case, the original potential swing top high would NOT be intact and thus the OUTSIDE BAR itself would become the potential swing (top or bottom).

But again, to confirm a swing top you MUST have a lower-low. Lower-highs would not be enough as you could just end up with an inside bar (PAUSE formation) rather than a confirmed swing top.



:)
 
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