AUDJPY- ready to pop?

TAjammy · Oct 11, 2009

i've been analysing this very interesting looking pair over the weekend. it seems to be in a choppy consolidation box.

in the picture i've numbered points of interest:

1)previous bullish price action, a double bottom which was successful as straight after a higher high/low was made.

2)the very strong 50% fibonacci retracment level from the very very peak of this pair years ago, it has already tested it and failed.

3)previous bullish price action: higher highs and higher lows.

plus in the box we have no lower lows have been made, but a quadruple bottom.

i have no idea whether this will test the fibo level again and plummet or will the quadruple bottom form a higher high and low, then a pullback back to the fibo level to long on?

TAjammy · Oct 11, 2009

+forgot to mention the bullish trendline and ascending triangle and the fact that underneath the 'box' is the 200 and 365 EMA which is fairly strong support

Masquerade · Oct 11, 2009

Check out USD/JPY too. It is very similar and looks like it's bottomed out for the time being.

TAjammy · Oct 11, 2009

eur usd too, higher highs and higher lows coming toward a previous high. big moves are just waiting to happen all around.
eur usd has formed a double top, we have not formed a low yet, what i would like to see is a lower low (bearish) then from that low go short on a pull back up and hold on for a ride down.

+ notice how quickly price rallied to this high before, compared to the very long drawn out rally we see now

virtuos0 · Oct 12, 2009

TAjammy said:
i've been analysing this very interesting looking pair over the weekend. it seems to be in a choppy consolidation box.

in the picture i've numbered points of interest:

1)previous bullish price action, a double bottom which was successful as straight after a higher high/low was made.

2)the very strong 50% fibonacci retracment level from the very very peak of this pair years ago, it has already tested it and failed.

3)previous bullish price action: higher highs and higher lows.

plus in the box we have no lower lows have been made, but a quadruple bottom.

i have no idea whether this will test the fibo level again and plummet or will the quadruple bottom form a higher high and low, then a pullback back to the fibo level to long on?

This is all meaningless.

Ask yourself WHY they are consolidating then you might have a clue how to trade it.

glyder · Oct 12, 2009

virtuos0 said:
This is all meaningless.

Ask yourself WHY they are consolidating then you might have a clue how to trade it.

virt,
why are they consolidating?
whats the clue?

GammaJammer · Oct 12, 2009

virtuos0 said:
This is all meaningless.

Ask yourself WHY they are consolidating then you might have a clue how to trade it.

Yup. It's good in that it's a nice little exercise in analysis. There's some large themes playing out, large enough that you don't have to be an institutional trader to have access to the info on them. It's widely available in the public domain, and as such it's insane imho not to have even a rough handle on what it is.....

virtuos0 · Oct 12, 2009

glyder said:
virt,
why are they consolidating?
whats the clue?

At the most basic level just think about strengths and weaknesses, both in relation to each other and to the dollar. See what you can come up with.

GammaJammer · Oct 12, 2009

I was thinking more about global risk appetite (look at equities), rate differentials at the short end of the curve, price of gold, China, and the fact that the LDP are being scarily inconsistent in their message on intervention meself. But each to his own....

TAjammy · Oct 12, 2009

virtuos0 said:
This is all meaningless.

Ask yourself WHY they are consolidating then you might have a clue how to trade it.

the consolidation is bullish, bullish trendline coming up aswell, a double top formed with no lower low? bullish aswell.

basically the price action looks like it's ready to pop up to me

GammaJammer · Oct 12, 2009

That's hardly a 'why'...

poborsky · Oct 12, 2009

difficult, could tank on risk aversion.

virtuos0 · Oct 12, 2009

GammaJammer said:
I was thinking more about global risk appetite (look at equities), rate differentials at the short end of the curve, price of gold, China, and the fact that the LDP are being scarily inconsistent in their message on intervention meself. But each to his own....

Now you've gone and spoilt the game.

virtuos0 · Oct 12, 2009

TAjammy said:
the consolidation is bullish, bullish trendline coming up aswell, a double top formed with no lower low? bullish aswell.

basically the price action looks like it's ready to pop up to me

Christ almighty, you can lead a horse to water..etc..

TAjammy · Oct 12, 2009

fair enough but you haven't actually said anything worth taking into consideration but only dossy lines to make yourself sound great

virtuos0 · Oct 12, 2009

TAjammy said:
fair enough but you haven't actually said anything worth taking into consideration but only dossy lines to make yourself sound great

Are you f*cking retarded or something? I said you need to ask yourself WHY it's consolidating and instead of answering that you simply repeated your original post with some mumbo-jumbo about 'price action'. Unlike GJ I have no intention of giving you the answers, I would rather guide you into how to find the answers for youself, or you've learnt nothing about how to look at future situations.

I give up on this site, it's a waste of time.

TAjammy · Oct 12, 2009

virtuos0 said:
Are you f*cking retarded or something? I said you need to ask yourself WHY it's consolidating and instead of answering that you simply repeated your original post with some mumbo-jumbo about 'price action'. Unlike GJ I have no intention of giving you the answers, I would rather guide you into how to find the answers for youself, or you've learnt nothing about how to look at future situations.

I give up on this site, it's a waste of time.

i have used MY own method of trying to make an educated analysis, and yet again you doubt methods/things that you really know nothing about/haven't tried, i use my 'mumbo-jumbo price action' as you put it, to make as good an analysis as i can.

you seem to use the same formula for your post.

1)ask a rhetorical question
2)discourage the OP about his ways
3)doubt methods you know nothing about

virtuos0 · Oct 12, 2009

TAjammy said:
i have used MY own method of trying to make an educated analysis, and yet again you doubt methods/things that you really know nothing about/haven't tried, i use my 'mumbo-jumbo price action' as you put it, to make as good an analysis as i can.

you seem to use the same formula for your post.

1)ask a rhetorical question
2)discourage the OP about his ways
3)doubt methods you know nothing about

Feel free to continue your guessing games, no skin off my nose.

TAjammy · Oct 12, 2009

virtuos0 said:
Feel free to continue your guessing games, no skin off my nose.

and you

Masquerade · Oct 12, 2009

I heard it's something to do with shortages of rice, just thought i'd let you all know the scoop.

AUDJPY- ready to pop?

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