Ratman's beginner's set up and analysis

Technically Fundamental

Technically Fundamental

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This is my thread for beginners to post what they think may be a potential set up, discuss their analysis and they came to their conclusions and also any other tradig related questions. Hopefully some of the more schooled traders on the site will visit and help us oot a bit and tell us if we go wrong. This way I can stop bombarding Trader_Dante's potenial set ups thread with questions and posting my set ups which the proper traders do not find helpful in the slightest.:eek:

As this is a free website and we are all members, people who talk sh*t are also welcome here because I actually don't mind having to click the next button a few times to get to the serious stuff.:clap:

Input from the more experienced would be welcomed and much appreciated.

Get posting and lets learn to read charts you bumbuclaarts... or am I the only newb left who actually wants to learn?:(
 
A high probability area to sell Cable.

38 fib, retest of h&s breakout.

Above it is descending TL and 50%.
 

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Check out the Three Ducks Technique.







Not to be confused with the Four Spring Ducks Technique which is Audi's slogan. :D
 
With a thread title like this ... how could I not visit!
I will be back with ideas :)

Hey Aaron, I have noticed that you are really good at plotting support and resistance levels which is something a lot of people are not. I think of SR levels as traffic lights or stop signs at crossroads and I need to know where they are. But once I get there I need the signal for what is happening and which way to go.
I really think if you were to learn candle patterns (whether bars or japanese candlesticks) that you would do really well. They really do give the signal of where we are going next.
You are very smart and committed, somehow I don't think you will be running a newbie thread for too long.

Nicola
 
Im learning candles now... I've barred myself from lines till I can read candles. It's a lot easier to make calls but I'm finding it hard to knowing when to cut and run. I was at about 40% profit on my only two trades for the day

crude hit the stop at 4750 i was in at 4784 looking to break 4800 in out of crude now i dont think its a learners market lol

gold im in short at 905.68 looking to bottom out 900

any opinions?
 

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Aaronmalins said:
Im learning candles now... I've barred myself from lines till I can read candles. It's a lot easier to make calls but I'm finding it hard to knowing when to cut and run. I was at about 40% profit on my only two trades for the day

crude hit the stop at 4750 i was in at 4784 looking to break 4800 in out of crude now i dont think its a learners market lol

gold im in short at 905.68 looking to bottom out 900

any opinions?
Click to expand...

I don't trade gold because it ate all my pips when I was learning. It looks like a head and shoulders on the daily at around $890 and sitting on an ascending trendline, which is the bottom of a channel. It could go either way from here but I like it down.

I do trade crude and I am short WTI May contract with a target around $48 initially. Afer two very bullish days it would normally retrace back some because it really is stuck in a range. The $50 is a very powerful round number resistance and I don't see it breaking it up right now.
With regards to holding the trades, if you mark the SR levels correctly and add trendlines then it is easier to set targets and look to see what happens when you get there. US crude had options expiry yesterday so it was quite a day and looked like there was a bit of a squeeze.

Nicola
 

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I forgot - it is oil inventotories ... I am short because I was expecting a build but watch out for oil inventories this time every wednesday.
Nicola
 
Hey Guys!

I think Aaron's levels are good because he uses the closing prices (ie the line charts) for his levels. There are many who will argue till they are blue in the face as to which method is correct but I prefer using a line chart to plot my levels. Try it. City types used to use line charts before candles/bars (so I'm told) so the old and experienced traders are probably still using a line chart for plotting?!

Then plot your fibs from candle swings and you'll usually find they match up a lot tighter than using the wick. After all ,my view is that the wick shows rejection. The other way of course, is just to use the candle body bottoms/top. Try it and it might fit your style??
Grim
 
I knew there was something up in crude yesterday... If was going off it's head.

I've cut and run after I won back all my losses on that gold trade lol.. I can't believe I got out at 893! That wouldn't have happened if I'd used a line :( won back all my losses on that gold trade lol.

Stayin out of that for a while now.

Anyone have any idea why gold is tumbling if all the indices and bank sector are dropping? what is everyone trading?
 
Gold has been following the indicies lately....
Personally mate, I wouldn't touch oil - only my opinion but I find it too volatile and twitchy at the moment and there's no disernable trend to speak of. There are easier markets to trade. Oil and gold are stalked by some very professional traders and are very prone to fakeys etc. Gold is a small market and can be 'manipulated' by large trades, very easily and oil is very much a supply/demand /world news commodity.

All I'm saying is that I think there are easier ways to start out trading than losing all your precious funds on oil / gold. Others with disagree, just my opinion. Nicola seems to have the oil trading nailed, so if you do insist on playing, speak to her!! ;-)
 
Aaronmalins said:
I knew there was something up in crude yesterday... If was going off it's head.

I've cut and run after I won back all my losses on that gold trade lol.. I can't believe I got out at 893! That wouldn't have happened if I'd used a line :( won back all my losses on that gold trade lol.

Stayin out of that for a while now.

Anyone have any idea why gold is tumbling if all the indices and bank sector are dropping? what is everyone trading?
Click to expand...

Gold and the dollar are moving together lately (which is unusual) and the dollar dropped like a stone earlier today.
Trader Dante posted a good article about it in his weekly round-up -
Dollar and Gold Are Suddenly Inseparable - WSJ.com
 
grimweasel said:
Hey Guys!

I think Aaron's levels are good because he uses the closing prices (ie the line charts) for his levels. There are many who will argue till they are blue in the face as to which method is correct but I prefer using a line chart to plot my levels. Try it. City types used to use line charts before candles/bars (so I'm told) so the old and experienced traders are probably still using a line chart for plotting?!

Then plot your fibs from candle swings and you'll usually find they match up a lot tighter than using the wick. After all ,my view is that the wick shows rejection. The other way of course, is just to use the candle body bottoms/top. Try it and it might fit your style??
Grim
Click to expand...

I usually analyse S&R on lines at 5,3 and 2 min time frames and place my line markers. Then I see how the markers reflect activity at the hourly and daily level. It works most of the time as long as you remember never to short term trade in small time frames. You get so many reversals and H&Ss it's almost as inviting it might as well be nude sexual provacation from the opposite sex but but thats how I ended up overtrading.
 
5,2,3 MIN TFS!!!! Stop!!!
You must wean yourself off them 'gambling' TFs. Learn out on the slower TFs and then, when you can show yourself some meaningful profits, you can have a play on the 5m TF....Give yo' bad self a slap on the hand man!

If you read Steenberger's Psyhco books he does actually advocate LEARNING about the markets on the lowert TFs, as you get thousands more 'cycles' of bars than you would on the weekly - the key is to watch and learn about the patterns / set-ups etc. But don't trade it. Leave that to the scalpers at the big firms. If you scalp you are against the world man in terms of players/brokers/ execution/ slippage etc. You have to be even better than the pros in my view!!
 
grimweasel said:
5,2,3 MIN TFS!!!! Stop!!!
You must wean yourself off them 'gambling' TFs. Learn out on the slower TFs and then, when you can show yourself some meaningful profits, you can have a play on the 5m TF....Give yo' bad self a slap on the hand man!

If you read Steenberger's Psyhco books he does actually advocate LEARNING about the markets on the lowert TFs, as you get thousands more 'cycles' of bars than you would on the weekly - the key is to watch and learn about the patterns / set-ups etc. But don't trade it. Leave that to the scalpers at the big firms. If you scalp you are against the world man in terms of players/brokers/ execution/ slippage etc. You have to be even better than the pros in my view!!
Click to expand...

Lol I know Grim. Gambling is the right word lol. Trading ticks is exiting on a demo account but the amount of times I've lost... I almost feel sick when the market completely switches because I'm thinking will I make the same daft mistake when I go live.

Main thing I'm learned from you guys is patience. I've only done 5 trades today 4 failed but one basically recouped my losses.

I only use the slow t/fs to try make best entry in pull backs or check S& R.
I've posted an example.(y)

check the hourly now against the values in the chart. :)
 

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grimweasel said:
5,2,3 MIN TFS!!!! Stop!!!
You must wean yourself off them 'gambling' TFs. Learn out on the slower TFs and then, when you can show yourself some meaningful profits, you can have a play on the 5m TF....Give yo' bad self a slap on the hand man!

Take the scale off the chart and all TF's look the same! There is no right or wrong TF, just right or wrong TF's for the specific trader in my view.

If you read Steenberger's Psyhco books he does actually advocate LEARNING about the markets on the lowert TFs, as you get thousands more 'cycles' of bars than you would on the weekly - the key is to watch and learn about the patterns / set-ups etc. But don't trade it. Leave that to the scalpers at the big firms. If you scalp you are against the world man in terms of players/brokers/ execution/ slippage etc. You have to be even better than the pros in my view!!
Click to expand...

That makes sense, more experience can be gathered through small TF even if you chose not to trade them. But surely using that logic you are ''against'' the professionals in any TF? Although I think ''against'' is the wrong word, because all retail traders are trying to do is anticipate what the professionals are more likely to do, then piggyback off that.
 
grimweasel said:
5,2,3 MIN TFS!!!! Stop!!!
You must wean yourself off them 'gambling' TFs... If you scalp you are against the world man in terms of players/brokers/ execution/ slippage etc. You have to be even better than the pros in my view!!
Click to expand...

Trading short-term charts doesn't necessarily mean scalping; I use a 3min chart as a trigger and often hold trades for hours.... If you know what you're doing the shorter-term charts are no more of a "gamble" than the longer-term ones.
 
Last edited:
graemenash said:
Trading short-term charts doesn't necessarily mean scalping; I use a 3min chart as a trigger and often hold trades for hours.... If you know what you're doing the shorter-term charts are no more of a "gamble" than the longer-term ones.
Click to expand...

Graeme,
You must look at a higher TF for your set-ups if you hold them for that long, right? The 3min is just your trigger?
Nicola
 
Just trade the banks - Barclays is so much fun and will continue up. Dont need charts just buy lol.
 
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