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brewski1984

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I have absolutely no luck whatsoever. Ok, well I have a bit of luck because if I didn't then I'd have no money left but still. I just can't get ahead and stay ahead and it's getting really frustrating! Just closed my 4th loss in a row and I'm currently getting rinsed in the 5th which will put me back at evens yet again after nearly 100 trades since last September:mad:
 
brewski1984 said:
I have absolutely no luck whatsoever. Ok, well I have a bit of luck because if I didn't then I'd have no money left but still. I just can't get ahead and stay ahead and it's getting really frustrating! Just closed my 4th loss in a row and I'm currently getting rinsed in the 5th which will put me back at evens yet again after nearly 100 trades since last September:mad:
Click to expand...

100 trades and it takes 5 to bring you back to break even. That's where you're going wrong imo.
 
In Jan I wiped out my profits from the last six months of 2012 so don't feel too bad. What's that saying...**** happens! As long as your account is still intact you're still in the game so harden the f up son(y):D

tumblr_m6gs8hMg0n1qczpxno1_500.jpg
 
malaguti said:
100 trades and it takes 5 to bring you back to break even. That's where you're going wrong imo.
Click to expand...

State the obvious and that's exactly my point, I get ahead and I can't stay ahead.

I guess I'm not losing so it can't be all that bad for a spread betting mug like me
 
brewski1984 said:
State the obvious and that's exactly my point, I get ahead and I can't stay ahead.

I guess I'm not losing so it can't be all that bad for a spread betting mug like me
Click to expand...

OK sorry I didnt mean to state the obvious, but you were wondering whether it was because you had overtraded. So no I dont think you had overtraded, you possibly want to look at your strategy (obviously). I feel for you though, I too just took my 4th in a row, but then the 5th turned out OK.
Wish you luck though and hope it turns around for you
 
brewski1984 said:
Is 100 trades in nearly 6 months too many?
Click to expand...

If the market gave you 100 opportunities in 6 months then the answer is 'No'.
But if there were only 20 real opportunities in 6 months then the answer is 'Yes'.

I’d say the number of real opportunities in 6 months is closer to 20.
 
Trade as mush as you like but trade smaller. Small fixes everything. Break even is good. It's the step before profit.

Also don't be a pot-shoter who thinks he's made it every time he gets 20 pips. It's a formula to loose. The market gives you one advantage and one advantage only over the casinos. Find it if you don't know what it is.


brewski1984 said:
I guess I'm not losing so it can't be all that bad for a spread betting mug like me
Click to expand...

A normal broker is completely different in terms of prices and stop handling characteristics.
 
brewski1984 said:
I have absolutely no luck whatsoever. Ok, well I have a bit of luck because if I didn't then I'd have no money left but still. I just can't get ahead and stay ahead and it's getting really frustrating! Just closed my 4th loss in a row and I'm currently getting rinsed in the 5th which will put me back at evens yet again after nearly 100 trades since last September:mad:
Click to expand...

Can't you say more about your strategy, which markets, risk:reward etc. Why not go through each trade and look at things like drawdown on each trade, max profit that could have been achieved etc and make some adjustments.

If it's any help, since May 2012, my account has grown by 15% and then slowly gone back to zero. It is now up to 12% again. 0.5%-1% risked on each trade. I have learned to be happy with one win out of 9 or so trades.
 
brewski1984 said:
I have absolutely no luck whatsoever. Ok, well I have a bit of luck because if I didn't then I'd have no money left but still. I just can't get ahead and stay ahead and it's getting really frustrating! Just closed my 4th loss in a row and I'm currently getting rinsed in the 5th which will put me back at evens yet again after nearly 100 trades since last September:mad:
Click to expand...

Dont be discouraged breaking even after 100 trades is far better than most manage. I was green last year but have been struggling so far this year. Maybe take a break and re-evaluate. Good luck
 
Well...I don't know anything about your system brewski, so you know best if something is wrong.

But just to bring in some probabilities, even if you had a large edge, 55% win 45% loss, on Risk: reward 1:1, (assuming results are binomial), the probability of getting 5 losers in a row is 1.8%, so over 100 trades, quite reasonable what you're saying would occur. Also the probability of you being break even or worse from these 100 trades is just over 18%.

So perhaps you either know in yourself something is not right in the system (or your application of it), or perhaps you have unrealistic expectations of what can occur over 100 trades.
 
new_trader said:
If the market gave you 100 opportunities in 6 months then the answer is 'No'.
But if there were only 20 real opportunities in 6 months then the answer is 'Yes'.

I’d say the number of real opportunities in 6 months is closer to 20.
Click to expand...

I'd disagree, by 9pm on Monday i'd had 13 trades and 0 losers
 
That was for the day and not the year... but then again for a day trader it may be a bit different
 
malaguti said:
100 trades and it takes 5 to bring you back to break even. That's where you're going wrong imo.
Click to expand...
Hi brewski,
I think malaguti may have got to the crux of your problem. The implication of your results is that you're losing a lot more on the losers than you're making on the winners. You'll need t a very high success ratio to make this sustainable in the long term and, that in itself, is a difficult thing to sustain. This is pure speculation on my part - you'll know from your stats whether or not there's any truth to it. If there is, you need to work on ways of cutting the losers sooner and letting the winners run. That ol' chestnut I know - easy to say - not so easy to put into practice!
;)
Tim.
 
All my winners are mainly 1:1 with the occasional runner that's made 1.5/2R. Maybe I need to stop trailing so closely and try and let my winners go a bit further. My results seem pretty similar to shakeones post.
 
Doomberg said:
I'd disagree, by 9pm on Monday i'd had 13 trades and 0 losers
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Oh Whoopie Doo!! Monday was almost one week ago and you're still bragging about it? That means it was probably an utter fluke. I've seen it all before at trade2win, especially in liquidating markets, where any numbskull can go short and make a profit. You'll probably end up doing what brewski1984 has done and wipe out all of your profits within 6 months.
 
those 5 trades haven't wiped out all my profits in the last 6 months, what I meant was that everytime I win a few trades I end up losing the next few and going back to breakeven repeatedly. I can't get ahead and stay ahead.
 
brewski1984 said:
those 5 trades haven't wiped out all my profits in the last 6 months, what I meant was that everytime I win a few trades I end up losing the next few and going back to breakeven repeatedly. I can't get ahead and stay ahead.
Click to expand...

I got it from the first post , don't know why everyone assumed that you've lost all your profits in just 5 trades . Maybe your strategy will get you nowhere , why don't you reassess and read "Fooled by randomness" by Nassim taleb . You have already recovered the costs of 100 trades "spread+commission+slippage" which is good , why you expect to make much more . Many traders think they can overcome the market by trading 1:1 20 pips target and SL 20 pips , but think about it if you trade the EUR with 2 pips spread for example , if it went your way 20 pips you will be up 18 pips , and if it went against you 20 pips you will be down 22 pips , hmmm it is hard , think outside the box you need something unique . Just an observation .
 
brewski1984 said:
those 5 trades haven't wiped out all my profits in the last 6 months, what I meant was that everytime I win a few trades I end up losing the next few and going back to breakeven repeatedly. I can't get ahead and stay ahead.
Click to expand...

Yes, but it makes no difference either way to what I have been saying. The reason you aren't making money is because you don't know what you are doing. The market is there and you can't resist clicking buttons.
 
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