Useful Fibonacci levels

Is there a level between 261.8% and 423.6% you find useful? (for eur/usd, eur/jpy, gbp/usd, usd/jpy) Also what are you favourite Fibonacci levels?

Thanks

This is an impossible question, 1st part - strictly no there isn't, 2nd part - ' favourite ' fib of what move - ie fibs can be very subjective - depending on where you plot them from and to. Having a ' favourite ' level means nothing therefore.....There is anecdotal evidence for eg that candle 'likes' (ie reacts at) the 50% level (ironic as strictly not a fib level) but to my knowledge no empirical evidence exists to substantiate this.) I think there only use is in clusters (potentially) or as part of a confluence of other potential supp/res/sbr/rbs factors and to some extent to guage whether a move/trend is breaking down.

G/L

ZEN archer said:

Is there a level between 261.8% and 423.6% you find useful? (for eur/usd, eur/jpy, gbp/usd, usd/jpy) Also what are you favourite Fibonacci levels?

Thanks

Click to expand...

bbmac said:

This is an impossible question, 1st part - strictly no there isn't, 2nd part - ' favourite ' fib of what move - ie fibs can be very subjective - depending on where you plot them from and to. Having a ' favourite ' level means nothing therefore.....There is anecdotal evidence for eg that candle 'likes' (ie reacts at) the 50% level (ironic as strictly not a fib level) but to my knowledge no empirical evidence exists to substantiate this.) I think there only use is in clusters (potentially) or as part of a confluence of other potential supp/res/sbr/rbs factors and to some extent to guage whether a move/trend is breaking down.

G/L

Click to expand...

I was interested in breakouts - anything above 100%. I've lost that level from my settings (it was 300 something %) - used to use it for partial profit taking when it was shooting towards 423.6%

ZEN archer said:

I was interested in breakouts - anything above 100%. I've lost that level from my settings (it was 300 something %) - used to use it for partial profit taking when it was shooting towards 423.6%

Click to expand...

It maybe 323.6% (ie 261.8% + 61.8% ?)

Table below may be useful

G/L

bbmac said:

It maybe 323.6% (ie 261.8% + 61.8% ?)

Table below may be useful

G/L

Click to expand...

I've found one example of 300 something on my saved charts - it's 361.8%. Maybe it's not a Fibonacci level and it could be something else (this example is only 4 months old - from a new charting package). Can't find one from a year ago

I did a lot of work on this, most of the following levels pop up from time to time

262
263
264
265
266
267
268
269
270
271
272
273
274
275
276
277
278
279
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423

http://textmechanic.com/Generate-List-of-Numbers.html

I did some work on retrace nets and I found that:

32% can be a good one for retracements,76% can be a good one for retracements,71% can be a good one for retracements,38% can be a good one for retracements,98% can be a good one for retracements,62% can be a good one for retracements,40% can be a good one for retracements,39% can be a good one for retracements,94% can be a good one for retracements,52% can be a good one for retracements,24% can be a good one for retracements,65% can be a good one for retracements,49% can be a good one for retracements,26% can be a good one for retracements,79% can be a good one for retracements,43% can be a good one for retracements,82% can be a good one for retracements,68% can be a good one for retracements,33% can be a good one for retracements,21% can be a good one for retracements,61% can be a good one for retracements,50% can be a good one for retracements,15% can be a good one for retracements,72% can be a good one for retracements,18% can be a good one for retracements,73% can be a good one for retracements,63% can be a good one for retracements,36% can be a good one for retracements,45% can be a good one for retracements,88% can be a good one for retracements,67% can be a good one for retracements,75% can be a good one for retracements,89% can be a good one for retracements,16% can be a good one for retracements,2% can be a good one for retracements,77% can be a good one for retracements,69% can be a good one for retracements,25% can be a good one for retracements,54% can be a good one for retracements,19% can be a good one for retracements,30% can be a good one for retracements,46% can be a good one for retracements,10% can be a good one for retracements,41% can be a good one for retracements,55% can be a good one for retracements,90% can be a good one for retracements,81% can be a good one for retracements,20% can be a good one for retracements,60% can be a good one for retracements,23% can be a good one for retracements,42% can be a good one for retracements,91% can be a good one for retracements,8% can be a good one for retracements,48% can be a good one for retracements,6% can be a good one for retracements,84% can be a good one for retracements,97% can be a good one for retracements,95% can be a good one for retracements,44% can be a good one for retracements,80% can be a good one for retracements,58% can be a good one for retracements,64% can be a good one for retracements,66% can be a good one for retracements,74% can be a good one for retracements,83% can be a good one for retracements,29% can be a good one for retracements,22% can be a good one for retracements,87% can be a good one for retracements,96% can be a good one for retracements,93% can be a good one for retracements,35% can be a good one for retracements,3% can be a good one for retracements,86% can be a good one for retracements,92% can be a good one for retracements,1% can be a good one for retracements,7% can be a good one for retracements,9% can be a good one for retracements,5% can be a good one for retracements,31% can be a good one for retracements,34% can be a good one for retracements,37% can be a good one for retracements,28% can be a good one for retracements,27% can be a good one for retracements,78% can be a good one for retracements,57% can be a good one for retracements,51% can be a good one for retracements,17% can be a good one for retracements,99% can be a good one for retracements,4% can be a good one for retracements,47% can be a good one for retracements,11% can be a good one for retracements,100% can be a good one for retracements,56% can be a good one for retracements,59% can be a good one for retracements,12% can be a good one for retracements,53% can be a good one for retracements,14% can be a good one for retracements,85% can be a good one for retracements,70% can be a good one for retracements,13% can be a good one for retracements

Pretty useful, you'd be amazed how many times one of the lines gets hit, to the exact pip as well in many cases

Hare: You miss the point mate - whilst all you say is undoubtedly true - which fibs are used by more market participants than others and that narrows it down to 4 or or 5 for retracements and probably 3 extensions.

G/L

bbmac said:

Hare: You miss the point mate - whilst all you say is undoubtedly true - which fibs are used by more market participants than others and that narrows it down to 4 or or 5 for retracements and probably 3 extensions.

G/L

Click to expand...

I don't think he does, what he is driving at in a lulzy way is that fibs like most TA
are actually just a subjective price action crutch.
If that works for you, fine, but that doesn't mean they have any individual statistical value.

Tested in isolation, like most TA they fall apart and have no merit.
What I mean by that, is who uses fibs or any other TA in isolation in a rigid yes / no fashion.
No one.

bbmac said:

Hare: You miss the point mate - whilst all you say is undoubtedly true - which fibs are used by more market participants than others and that narrows it down to 4 or or 5 for retracements and probably 3 extensions.

G/L

Click to expand...

So lets say 8 fib levels 23, 50 (not a fib but used) 61, 76, 100, 161, 261, 423 etc. Most punters here would probably want to add a few more 123 etc

Multiply that by the number of timeframes commonly in use, and commonly used tick charts too, lets say .... 15 but its probably higher in practice

Suddenly you have 15 x 8 levels (120 levels)

That's before we even address how swing highs and lows in each timeframe are determined ! Now we have a list of levels longer than my list !

What I really like about fib traders is that they use levels that aren't even fib numbers !

the hare said:

I did a lot of work on this, most of the following levels pop up from time to time

262
263
264
265
266
267
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269
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423

Generate List of Sequential Numbers

Click to expand...

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bbmac said:

I think there only use is in clusters (potentially) or as part of a confluence of other potential supp/res/sbr/rbs factors and to some extent to guage whether a move/trend is breaking down.

G/L

Click to expand...

The extensions give me an idea if there is no sup/res level near by (to guage how far it can go)

BTW One should know how to draw them properly - otherwise they look like random levels

Absolutely agree - so use them on t/f's where most usres of them trading big money use them if they use them at all....and draw only the 'major swings' on thos t/f's (subjective still I know - but it narrows it down significantly.) Then having done that use them only as potential supp/res factors in clusters and/or as part of a confluence of other widely used potential supp/res factors and suddenly they might be more useful than not. I certainly find them so in this respect but for non users they will never become convinced of such so fair enough but it is simply misleading to dismiss them out of hand as being entirely useless.

Look at 4hr below - you could plot the fibs from points a and b and any of the circled swing hi's all to the lowest point which is c....but really point a and b are the only swing hi's that co-exist as fractal swing hi's on the next higher t/f (in a triple t/f analysis) - the daily t/f too (where some of the fibs are still unbreeched by the move up to yesterday's hi, ie point d was also a fractal swing hi on daily but all fibs to that point were breeched by the run up to yesterday's hi just below it at point e.)

Even given their obvious and undisputed subjectivity - there is an 'intelligent' way to use them and then there are all the other ways !

G/L

the hare said:

So lets say 8 fib levels 23, 50 (not a fib but used) 61, 76, 100, 161, 261, 423 etc. Most punters here would probably want to add a few more 123 etc

Multiply that by the number of timeframes commonly in use, and commonly used tick charts too, lets say .... 15 but its probably higher in practice

Suddenly you have 15 x 8 levels (120 levels)

That's before we even address how swing highs and lows in each timeframe are determined ! Now we have a list of levels longer than my list !

What I really like about fib traders is that they use levels that aren't even fib numbers !

Click to expand...

Liquid validity said:

I don't think he does, what he is driving at in a lulzy way is that fibs like most TA
are actually just a subjective price action crutch.
If that works for you, fine, but that doesn't mean they have any individual statistical value.

Tested in isolation, like most TA they fall apart and have no merit.
What I mean by that, is who uses fibs or any other TA in isolation in a rigid yes / no fashion.
No one.

Click to expand...

Is it possible that something with no statistical value when tested on its own, can greatly increase the statistical value overall when combined with something else?

bbmac said:

Even given their obvious and undisputed subjectivity - there is an 'intelligent' way to use them and then there are all the other ways !

G/L

Click to expand...

Agreed, and some very useful guidance in your post for anyone going down the TA route

Shakone said:

Is it possible that something with no statistical value when tested on its own, can greatly increase the statistical value overall when combined with something else?

Click to expand...

Yes quite possible, although I'm not talking specifically of fibs here.
The opposite is also perfectly possible (and more likely, at least in a mechanical setting).

bbmac said:

Absolutely agree - so use them on t/f's where most usres of them trading big money use them if they use them at all....and draw only the 'major swings' on thos t/f's (subjective still I know - but it narrows it down significantly.) Then having done that use them only as potential supp/res factors in clusters and/or as part of a confluence of other widely used potential supp/res factors and suddenly they might be more useful than not. I certainly find them so in this respect but for non users they will never become convinced of such so fair enough but it is simply misleading to dismiss them out of hand as being entirely useless.
1
Even given their obvious and undisputed subjectivity - there is an 'intelligent' way to use them and then there are all the other ways !
2
G/L

Click to expand...

1. I agree, it is misleading to say anything is entirely useless, if someone
does find value in them, that quite clearly means they aren't entirely useless.
All I am saying is that in isolation, in a rigid mechanical setting they are useless.

2. Agree again. Although I tend to think your primary deciding factors
are price, sentiment and and other driving forces such as a press release by Draghi.

Using that example, say fibs were showing support for a level 20 mins before
Draghi releases a negative eurozone statement.
Following the statement, price and sentiment are heading one way - down.
Under those circumstances, I am quite sure you would dismiss any fib signal showing support.

On the other hand, a purely fib based mechanical method would quite likely
already be long in the last place you would want to be long.
That is what I mean by their performance in isolation.

Just to clarify what I am saying, here is a paper evaluating fibs,
in their favour it has to be said.
A Leveraged Trading Strategy with Fibonacci Approach: Empirical Evidence for DJI 30 and ISE 100 by Oral Erdogan, Taner Doguc :: SSRN

That test would tend to suggest they "work".
How different would the results be with random levels?

I am saying nothing works.
They provide an entry signal, which if managed correctly will on average
produce an overall profit.

BTW I'm looking at this from a purely mechanical stance, i.e. no
application of discretionary filters.

Chapter 7 conclusion.

Taner Doguc & Oral Erdogan said:

Here the discussed trading strategy is not a magical tool in order to beat the stock market but, the
methodological presentation of the simple principles of speculation. Two simple but important
principle of the speculation is staying on the winning position and closing the losing position.
The strategy in this paper applies those principles as efficiently as it can, by using the technical
stop loss points to cut the losing position and the usage of phi ellipses in order to stay on the
growing phase of the medium term trends while the position is winning.

Click to expand...

That's the bulk of any approach.
Have a consistent reason for entry.
Cut losers, run winners.
With trade management giving the exit.

the hare said:

I did some work on retrace nets and I found that:

32% can be a good one for retracements,76% can be a good one for retracements,71% can be a good one for retracements,38% can be a good one for retracements,98% can be a good one for retracements,62% can be a good one for retracements,40% can be a good one for retracements,39% can be a good one for retracements,94% can be a good one for retracements,52% can be a good one for retracements,24% can be a good one for retracements,65% can be a good one for retracements,49% can be a good one for retracements,26% can be a good one for retracements,79% can be a good one for retracements,43% can be a good one for retracements,82% can be a good one for retracements,68% can be a good one for retracements,33% can be a good one for retracements,21% can be a good one for retracements,61% can be a good one for retracements,50% can be a good one for retracements,15% can be a good one for retracements,72% can be a good one for retracements,18% can be a good one for retracements,73% can be a good one for retracements,63% can be a good one for retracements,36% can be a good one for retracements,45% can be a good one for retracements,88% can be a good one for retracements,67% can be a good one for retracements,75% can be a good one for retracements,89% can be a good one for retracements,16% can be a good one for retracements,2% can be a good one for retracements,77% can be a good one for retracements,69% can be a good one for retracements,25% can be a good one for retracements,54% can be a good one for retracements,19% can be a good one for retracements,30% can be a good one for retracements,46% can be a good one for retracements,10% can be a good one for retracements,41% can be a good one for retracements,55% can be a good one for retracements,90% can be a good one for retracements,81% can be a good one for retracements,20% can be a good one for retracements,60% can be a good one for retracements,23% can be a good one for retracements,42% can be a good one for retracements,91% can be a good one for retracements,8% can be a good one for retracements,48% can be a good one for retracements,6% can be a good one for retracements,84% can be a good one for retracements,97% can be a good one for retracements,95% can be a good one for retracements,44% can be a good one for retracements,80% can be a good one for retracements,58% can be a good one for retracements,64% can be a good one for retracements,66% can be a good one for retracements,74% can be a good one for retracements,83% can be a good one for retracements,29% can be a good one for retracements,22% can be a good one for retracements,87% can be a good one for retracements,96% can be a good one for retracements,93% can be a good one for retracements,35% can be a good one for retracements,3% can be a good one for retracements,86% can be a good one for retracements,92% can be a good one for retracements,1% can be a good one for retracements,7% can be a good one for retracements,9% can be a good one for retracements,5% can be a good one for retracements,31% can be a good one for retracements,34% can be a good one for retracements,37% can be a good one for retracements,28% can be a good one for retracements,27% can be a good one for retracements,78% can be a good one for retracements,57% can be a good one for retracements,51% can be a good one for retracements,17% can be a good one for retracements,99% can be a good one for retracements,4% can be a good one for retracements,47% can be a good one for retracements,11% can be a good one for retracements,100% can be a good one for retracements,56% can be a good one for retracements,59% can be a good one for retracements,12% can be a good one for retracements,53% can be a good one for retracements,14% can be a good one for retracements,85% can be a good one for retracements,70% can be a good one for retracements,13% can be a good one for retracements

Pretty useful, you'd be amazed how many times one of the lines gets hit, to the exact pip as well in many cases

Click to expand...

lulz @ 32%, lulz @ 76%, lulz @ 71%, lulz @ 38%, lulz @ 98%, lulz @ 62%, lulz @ 40%, lulz @ 39%, lulz @ 94%, lulz @ 52%, lulz @ 24%, lulz @ 65%, lulz @ 49%, lulz @ 26%, lulz @ 79%, lulz @ 43%, lulz @ 82%, lulz @ 68%, lulz @ 33%, lulz @ 21%, lulz @ 61%, lulz @ 50%, lulz @ 15%, lulz @ 72%, lulz @ 18%, lulz @ 73%, lulz @ 63%, lulz @ 36%, lulz @ 45%, lulz @ 88%, lulz @ 67%, lulz @ 75%, lulz @ 89%, lulz @ 16%, lulz @ 2%, lulz @ 77%, lulz @ 69%, lulz @ 25%, lulz @ 54%, lulz @ 19%, lulz @ 30%, lulz @ 46%, lulz @ 10%, lulz @ 41%, lulz @ 55%, lulz @ 90%, lulz @ 81%, lulz @ 20%, lulz @ 60%, lulz @ 23%, lulz @ 42%, lulz @ 91%, lulz @ 8%, lulz @ 48%, lulz @ 6%, lulz @ 84%, lulz @ 97%, lulz @ 95%, lulz @ 44%, lulz @ 80%, lulz @ 58%, lulz @ 64%, lulz @ 66%, lulz @ 74%, lulz @ 83%, lulz @ 29%, lulz @ 22%, lulz @ 87%, lulz @ 96%, lulz @ 93%, lulz @ 35%, lulz @ 3%, lulz @ 86%, lulz @ 92%, lulz @ 1%, lulz @ 7%, lulz @ 9%, lulz @ 5%, lulz @ 31%, lulz @ 34%, lulz @ 37%, lulz @ 28%, lulz @ 27%, lulz @ 78%, lulz @ 57%, lulz @ 51%, lulz @ 17%, lulz @ 99%, lulz @ 4%, lulz @ 47%, lulz @ 11%, lulz @ 100%, lulz @ 56%, lulz @ 59%, lulz @ 12%, lulz @ 53%, lulz @ 14%, lulz @ 85%, lulz @ 70%, lulz @ 13%