Hey guys and gals,
They say that knowledge is the best weapon you can arm yourself with starting in this industry and with time comes experience. I'm trying to gather as much of that prized knowledge as I can before I start!
Threads like this drive me nuts. Not because the OP created the thread, but because of the landslide of useless posts that always seem to follow. When will this nonsense ever end.
Anita V:
Much of your success in this business, will depend on how hard you are willing to work, how smart you are willing to work and how far outside the box you are capable of thinking. Work hard. Work smart. Think outside the box.
They tell me that 95% of conventional Forex traders fail. So, doing exactly what the 95% are doing, doesn't seem to make a whole lot of sense - wouldn't you agree. Clearly, then, you would need to do something that the 95% are not doing, in order to have a good chance of joining the 5% who are successful in this business. This is just a common sense observation, right at the top of discovery. Therefore, you primary concern is to find a way to be different than the 95%, and that requires something called an: Edge. And, you must discover yours. No edge, no real opportunity for success in Forex.
First, you need to understand the building blocks of successful trading. If I've said this once, then I've said it a million times before on forums all over the place, down through the years. No trader can sustain long-term success without having a solution to the following building blocks:
- Timing
- Direction
- Magnitude
- Probability
- Money Management Model
You don't have to believe me - in fact, don't believe me. Go open up a Demo Trading Account and try to move that account beyond the initial $50,000.00 deposit, to $1,000,000.00, without having a solution for these five (5) building blocks of trading success, and see what happens to the demo account balance. Even if you are a good intuitive trader, you won't grow the $50k significantly over time.
Therefore, common sense dictates that no matter what you do and no matter which path you take (fundamental trader or technical trader), you will have to eventually come to grips with these five (5) essential questions, sooner or later in your trading career. The sooner you find reliable solutions to these questions, the sooner you will begin the transition from the 95% pool, into the 5% pool.
Timing:
How many good trades have you ever made without good Timing (not including Non-Directional Trading). It is impossible. In order to make a profit, the market has to move in the direction of your order type. If you enter the market and it moves horizontally, then you've wasted time, which means you've also wasted money, because in this business, Time is money. It is a wasted opportunity that could have been better spent on a trade that moved in your favor.
How many trades have you entered that ultimately moved in your favor, but not until after a draw-down period that went well beyond your stop level. Again, another sign of poor Timing. Though the trade would have made money, the Timing was wrong and you could not ride out the MAE long enough to warrant remaining in the trade.
Direction:
A no brainer. Unless you are trading FX Options and have a PUT/CALL strategy in place, then having the market move in the exact opposite direction of your order type, is a guaranteed loss - 100% of the time - each time it happens. No questions asked. There must be sufficient MFE built-into every single trade you make, in order to claim that you had the Direction question properly answered. This is a common sense observation.
Magnitude:
One of the most misunderstood concepts in all of trading, is Magnitude. This is one of the five (5) ingredients to successful trading that contains elements of all the other four (4) and that's what make it so misunderstood, so ignored, and so highly miscalculated or underrated.
You've just entered a trade. You got the Timing and the Direction right. But, all of a sudden the trade stalls, carrying your position well beyond your normal time-frame for being in and out of the trade. Then, all of sudden, the smallish profits you had from nailing the Timing and Direction, start to melt away as the market begins to slide against you slowly, like milking a cow, until your position rests comfortably on its break-even point and seems to sit here for what feels like an eternity. That's a classic failure to understand Magnitude.
Or, you enter a position with good initial Timing and initial Direction. Just as market comes to within 2 pips of your Limit Order, the trade suddenly does a snap-roll and begins to reverse course at a rate of speed that is so fast, you don't even have time to adjust your stop level. That's another classic sign that Magnitude was not really understood, or integrated into your trade. With a better understanding of Magnitude, you can surgically enter and exit the market with profits, a higher percentage of the time and with greater precision than those who don't really understand the concept.
Probability:
You can swap the word Probability, with Confidence, if you prefer. In the end, they are one and the same. Probability, is the systematic approach to handling failed trades. When the 95% hear the term "probability," they immediately think, "how many times can I win." The 5%, when they hear that same term, they think, "how many times should I lose, before I win." The 5% are always looking for the not only the best "chance" at winning, but they are interested in the high-density approximations of clusters of wins -vs- losses. In other words, the 5% study and know, the statistical structure of how their trading system and/or trading methodology, likes to group its wins in approximation to its losses. Thus, the 5% are looking for the statistical fulcrum between their phases of wins -vs- losses and they use that information to make more informed trading decisions.
You just entered a trade on the heels of your trading system or methodology netting 17 trades in a row that were on accurate to a specified target. So, you feel that trade number 18 had a greater "probability" of being correct because, well, the system or methodology is real "hot" right now. That's a failure to understand what Probability is all about. In fact, it could be the exact inverse of a high probability trade, if the density or clustering of wins -vs- losses has just reached its apex, or fulcrum. Your trading system or methodology could be about to run into a dry patch, but because you don't understand the distribution pattern of your wins -vs- your losses, you can't see the "probability" for that happening and you don't know how to properly account for it.
Money Management Model:
You can have all the Timing, Direction, Magnitude and Probability you want tucked under your belt, but if you don't nail down the proper use of capital for each trade, you will only be spinning your wheels, going nowhere fast. Your equity curve won't get steep and you run the risk of losing more capital with each trade. Or, the exact opposite will be true. You will be a solid trader from a Timing, Direction, Magnitude and Probability standpoint, but your equity curve will never be optimized and you will never see the highest performance possible as a strict matter of equity growth.
The Money Management Model, is not the same thing as your Money Management Strategy. They are two completely different things. The 95% don't yet understand this distinction, but the 5% learned this truism at some point in their trading careers. The Model is all about what's possible, while the Strategy is all about how you get there. The Model contains the revenue goal and all the calculations that determine how fast your capital can grow over time, as well as what to expect in terms of equity curve maturity, including how many trades are required each day to reach the revenue goal of the model. The Strategy dictates the specifics on how you go about each trade in terms of Margin Used, Pips Targeted, Stop Loss Level (if necessary), Percent Net Gain Per Trade and Maximum Draw Allowable, etc. The Model is the framework for equity growth over time and the Strategy is the way you optimize for revenue growth.
If you have built your Money Management Model and optimized it with a good Money Management Strategy, then you can use the Model's strategy to help you conduct the kind of market research that will enable you to build the kind of Indicators, Trade Signals and/or Trade Methodologies that will enable the Model to be a success. In other words, your Money Management Model can actually guide your trading system development and help to optimize and focus your research on only those indicators, signals and methodologies that are best for your goals.
This is what I call the Integrated Money Management Model Approach to Trade System Development and as far as I know, I have not run into anybody that does it the way I do it. If your Model calls for 30 pips per day, and you are spending time researching indicators, signals, methods and ideas that at best can only net you 20 pips per day, then you are not optimizing your research and your research is not focused. The idea here, is to allow the Model (your stated goals about WHY you are in this business in the first place) to drive your research.
Example: President Kennedy, defined the American Space Program, not by first asking, "What is possible" but by first stating the declarative: "We shall go to the moon in this decade and do the other things. Not because they are easy, but because they are hard." Kennedy, established the goal (the Model) and it was NASA's responsibility to build the Strategy. But, notice here how all of the primary space research that NASA engaged, was predicated on meeting the needs of the stated Model.
When I built my trading system, I used the same conceptual approach that Kennedy and NASA used to get us to the moon and back safely. I also adopted the same "mission critical" concept, in that I began looking at the business of trading and adopting the attitude that overall systemic failure, is simply "not an option." That does not mean that there will be no failed trades. NASA, had many failures along the way towards safely landing a man on the moon and returning him back to earth. However, it simply means that systemic failure is not an acceptable answer or result.
I certainly wish I had somebody around to tell me this when I was just starting out years ago, so you are certainly asking the right questions. What I have given you here, is what I believe to be a good
introduction to the world of Currency Trading. I hope that you can glean something from it, that helps you in your endeavors as a successful Trader!