Will the markets fall?

[new_trader]

True. Since you never post anything tangible and prefer crypticisms nor is anyone ever likely to, except when you use an example to show impeccable after-timing.


Your comment was a bit broader than that. I was sure I read something about not being invested in US equities as you were concerned about the dollar. Perhaps I made that up, or it was another of your crypticisms.

This is what I wrote. Highlighted for your convenience, this is not how it appears in the original.

‘Equities’ is such a broad term. I don’t have any money invested in US equities and you have to measure performance relative to other assets. If US equities are rising simply because the US dollar index is falling then you haven’t really gained much. The dollar index was around 90 in March 2009, now it's around 76. That is a drop of approx 15%.

What economic recovery?

 

[new_trader]

<<< Exits flame war.

No flame war. Just another T2W member desperately trying to belittle me using straw man arguments. Perhaps he can get TheRamble to help.

 

[Jack o'Clubs]

<<< Exits flame war.

true - unedifying all round.

Moving on to something more constructive, and back on theme:

IMO, the surprise this year will come from US earnings growth, there will be a strong swing back to US and developed markets equities. My concern is that already that is becoming a consensus view - nevertheless I think positioning for any kind of armageddon scenario, particularly via instruments such as gold is likely to underperform. The massive theme through the crisis has been cross-asset correlation as investors have just placed risk-on, risk-off trades - as we normalise the economy through the year those correlations will unwind and it will be a bad year for fixed-income. Just my view, but I am positioned for it so it means something to me and I have thought about it (a lot).

 

[aj7harrison]

TPTB will push the USD below 50 before they let the market touch 666 again. This should by now be obvious.

They would rather see people paying $10 for a loaf of bread and $15 for a gallon of gas than AAPL under $100. Those are their priorities.

 

[financeadvertise]

US market keeps ignoring the bad news. Hard to see it dropping any time soon.

 

[financeadvertise]

for example, today:
OIL at 3-year high = bad
job report is good = bad (not more QE)

what do we get: SPY -0.75% and a positive week!

 

[HowardCohodas]

for example, today:
OIL at 3-year high = bad
job report is good = bad (not more QE)

what do we get: SPY -0.75% and a positive week!

The job report, if you look behind the scenes, is bad. Like much of what politicians do, the number reported is based on phony bookkeeping to obscure the truth.

 

[aj7harrison]

Im currently practising how to live like a cavemen to be prepared the economic apocalyptic end

 

[88bluegt]

The job report, if you look behind the scenes, is bad. Like much of what politicians do, the number reported is based on phony bookkeeping to obscure the truth.

than the truth is what? ....... whats behind the scenes?

 

[thunderstruck]

‘Equities’ is such a broad term. I don’t have any money invested in US equities and you have to measure performance relative to other assets. If US equities are rising simply because the US dollar index is falling then you haven’t really gained much. The dollar index was around 90 in March 2009, now it's around 76. That is a drop of approx 15%.

What economic recovery?

The S&P was around 800 at end March 2009, is now 1330-ish. That's a rise of 65%.

The job report, if you look behind the scenes, is bad. Like much of what politicians do, the number reported is based on phony bookkeeping to obscure the truth.

On paper there is a nominal recovery of 65% but considering the fall of the $ it is actually 55% . But considering job reports this "actual" 55% is just a number . Things are looking bad . Markets may rise but everything else points to an end of the economy as we know it . If you trully believe that the markets will fall like crazy anythinf you do is pointless , just go fishing .

I believe that markets may fall sharply at some time but then they will recover and the economy will find a point of balace but at lower levels of mean income .

If you hold stocks and plan to hold them . Hold them fot the next 10 to 20 years . For dome time there will be violent moves in the market .