why-technical-analysis-is-nonsense

[Paul71]

Painfully.

Tony,


I know you are too intelligent to pass me off with such drivel, you need to try harder.:cheesy:

 

[mr.marcus]

TheBramble...with much respect I ask the question. Do you remember Mr. Marcus. He is special to me. I know he was gravely ill and I cannot reach him via email. Have you heard anything of him? Thank You ymanly

...fighting back now mate...will find out next month how things have progressed and let you know.....cheers mark j

 

[DaxDestroyer]

...fighting back now mate...will find out next month how things have progressed and let you know.....cheers mark j

I wish you all the best and WIN THE FIGHT! Carlos

 

[Paul71]

Painfully.

I guess the ouija board is all out of tricks, Tony?

 

[Windowsill]

...statistically, they should do equally well over time regardless of their predominant approach, system or methodology.






How do you you come to this conclusion?

You mean breakeven less charges:clap:

 

[ymanly]

mr. marcus...ymanly is george. ET reject george....porgie...best to you.

 

[ymanly]

does the tick chart hold extreme value for you as it does for me......

...fighting back now mate...will find out next month how things have progressed and let you know.....cheers mark j

 

[passive]

...fighting back now mate...will find out next month how things have progressed and let you know.....cheers mark j

Hi Mark,
I didn't know you were sick. Tried sending email a couple days ago but don't know if you got it. I hope things get better for you & that doctors don't make you worse off.
Jay

 

[Xeno]

Ha ha

So, his main argument is that the hedge funds don't use them. Pity he didn't visit any of the good prop firms - many have been outperforming most hedge funds for a while now. In fact. In fact plenty of technical systems have been outperforming most hedge funds for a while.

He then gives *some* disadvantages of TA, and that's supposed to make the whole thing 'nonsense'.

I could go on.

Xeno

 

[Black Swan]

Could someone please start a thread on why technical analysis is not nonsense, in fact it's essential? Might have more 'legs' than this thread...

 

[DaxDestroyer]

Could someone please start a thread on why technical analysis is not nonsense, in fact it's essential? Might have more 'legs' than this thread...

I think, most people who found out, that it makes sense just TRADE

 

[GCC]

Quote:

"Technical analysis was developed for short-term traders. There is little value in assisting investment decisions, if any, for institutional money managers."

This is why he wrote this article in the first place, because he is one of those big guys who manage a lot of money and cannot move in or out freely in the short term.

However, this is completely the opposite for us short term traders, "why fundamental analysis is useless" will be the title. Fundamentals have nothing to do with short term swing that we benefit from.

Looking deeper, we should be grateful that these big guys don't care about small short term fluctuations because as they move the market, and the chance to take advantage of their movement will be left to us, short term traders using technical analysis.

 

[DaxDestroyer]

Quote:

"Technical analysis was developed for short-term traders. There is little value in assisting investment decisions, if any, for institutional money managers."

This is why he wrote this article in the first place, because he is one of those big guys who manage a lot of money and cannot move in or out freely in the short term.

However, this is completely the opposite for us short term traders, "why fundamental analysis is useless" will be the title. Fundamentals have nothing to do with short term swing that we benefit from.

Looking deeper, we should be grateful that these big guys don't care about small short term fluctuations because as they move the market, and the chance to take advantage of their movement will be left to us, short term traders using technical analysis.

I don't think that the big guys don't use technical analysis. At least I know different.

True is, that there are a lot of "big" guys who still think, they can live without it. Their results tell a different story as they are not able to beat the market. LESS make absolute returns as they often promise.

To be honest I LOVE their IGNORANCE as it gives me better opportunities to take their money away. As I trade futures, I have to take it from others as the cake is not getting bigger by itself.

 

[GCC]

To be honest I LOVE their IGNORANCE as it gives me better opportunities to take their money away. As I trade futures, I have to take it from others as the cake is not getting bigger by itself.

My point exactly. I don't care what you use, as long as you donate money to the clearing houses and we get a share of it.

I should elaborate further on why many big guys, most notably the mutual fund managers, do not pay attention to technical analysis:

1. The money isn't theirs. They got paid as long as they are slightly better than the S&P or whatsoever.

2. Their criteria of buying and selling obeys traditional investment theory which believes in random walk and look into things like yield curves, matrixes, and other fancy calculations. All these things sound great in academia, but in practice more than often loses money, which they don't really care.

 

[ymanly]

TA is a goldmine if you don't stay in everybody else's box.

:idea:

My point exactly. I don't care what you use, as long as you donate money to the clearing houses and we get a share of it.

I should elaborate further on why many big guys, most notably the mutual fund managers, do not pay attention to technical analysis:

1. The money isn't theirs. They got paid as long as they are slightly better than the S&P or whatsoever.

2. Their criteria of buying and selling obeys traditional investment theory which believes in random walk and look into things like yield curves, matrixes, and other fancy calculations. All these things sound great in academia, but in practice more than often loses money, which they don't really care.

 

[Black Swan]

Quote:

"Technical analysis was developed for short-term traders. There is little value in assisting investment decisions, if any, for institutional money managers."

This is why he wrote this article in the first place, because he is one of those big guys who manage a lot of money and cannot move in or out freely in the short term.

However, this is completely the opposite for us short term traders, "why fundamental analysis is useless" will be the title. Fundamentals have nothing to do with short term swing that we benefit from.

Looking deeper, we should be grateful that these big guys don't care about small short term fluctuations because as they move the market, and the chance to take advantage of their movement will be left to us, short term traders using technical analysis.

Can't and wouldn't disagree with any of that, all I'd add is that in the bull market we had up until a year ago FA was incredibly valuable, but given that all markets have had their integrity completely ruined by events such as; TARP/1-2, thinly disguised QE (that has been happening relentlessy before any such announcements were made public) banks and their stock being pumped up by tax payer cash etc. FA is now rendered completely useless.