Why do people not use Betfair more?

[FetteredChinos]

indeedly do..

but ive got a hedge on should we get to 1.70 on an up day.. which would only need a quick 30pt sell off to get the market a bit scared...

we'll see..

 

[stevespray]

FTSE to finish up is just over 10 bid on binary. FTSE currently down 28 and US is closed all day. I'd say that represents excellent value.

Steve.

 

[Bintrader]

Did you take it Steve?

FTSE to finish up is just over 10 bid on binary. FTSE currently down 28 and US is closed all day. I'd say that represents excellent value.

Steve.

 

[stevespray]

Off course - I always trade good value!

Steve.

 

[FetteredChinos]

im on it too steve..

managed to get a few quid matched at 16.50 and 13.50...

so we'll see..

it will be like walking through glue to get there though. but 5000 holding firm at the mo... looks a good price..

 

[BinarySoft Chris]

im on it too steve..

managed to get a few quid matched at 16.50 and 13.50...

so we'll see..

it will be like walking through glue to get there though. but 5000 holding firm at the mo... looks a good price..

FC where are you placing these bets?

 

[FetteredChinos]

betdaq, Jules...

slightly illiquid, and therefore the prices are more out of line with probability than usual..

 

[stevespray]

Sold off a bit on several spreadbets earlier - Just backed a load at 1.01 on betfair so almost flat again now.

I managed to sell some on Betfair this morning as well which more than covers the cost of hedging.

If you have a plan and time it right there is clearly some nice money here.

If all comes off right then I should pocket just over £350.

Steve.

 

[FetteredChinos]

Don't say i dont spoil you...

just did a quick download and a brief attempt to recreate my earlier findings, this time on the FTSE..

14 months of hourly data here.. :cheesy:

some interesting stats..

since 4/10/2004, if the opening hourly candle of the day hits more than 5pts above the prior close:

118 occurances, and 83 of those times the day close in positive territory.. in other words 70% of the time...

at the open when the FTSE is just 5pts up, you are going to be able to get nearly 1.9, maybe even 2.0 on the exchanges..

over 100 trades,

70 * 0.9 = +63 wins
30 * -1 = -30 losses

ie +33 per 100 trades executed

an expectancy of 0.33 is not to be sniffed at at all..

i attach the sheet.. as you can see, pretty much any value up to about 25/30 or so has a pretty huge strike rate..

FC

 

[nutter punter]

Don't say i dont spoil you...

just did a quick download and a brief attempt to recreate my earlier findings, this time on the FTSE..

14 months of hourly data here.. :cheesy:

some interesting stats..

since 4/10/2004, if the opening hourly candle of the day hits more than 5pts above the prior close:

118 occurances, and 83 of those times the day close in positive territory.. in other words 70% of the time...

at the open when the FTSE is just 5pts up, you are going to be able to get nearly 1.9, maybe even 2.0 on the exchanges..

over 100 trades,

70 * 0.9 = +63 wins
30 * -1 = -30 losses

ie +33 per 100 trades executed

an expectancy of 0.33 is not to be sniffed at at all..

i attach the sheet.. as you can see, pretty much any value up to about 25/30 or so has a pretty huge strike rate..

FC

I am not quite sure if I understand. Your data seems to include all market opens that end up higher than the previous close. So of the 118 occurances not all are relevant as many are far in excess of 5 points and quite clearly they would not be opens where you could back 1.9 nor let alone 1.7 which is the minimum value you would need to match to meet your 70% target.

Please correct me or show me where I am going wrong.

Thankyou also for the hourly data which I will try myself to look at it and see if I can come up with anything helpful for people reading this thread.

Cheers


Nutter

 

[shadowninja]

Just befriend Rooney's dad and he'll see if he can get Rooney to kick another player in the second half of the game.