Why Am I Losing So Often Compared To Wins??! + Why I Always Choose Wrong Direction??!

I earn money from other things apart from the stockmarket, currnetly i only have £100 capital, but by next weekend i will have between £200 t £600 more money that i could use as capital..

But so want to be able to turn £100 depoit into my spread betting account into atleaset £150 by the end of each day.
(5pips per hour / trade 10 of 24 hours of the day.)

Hi,

Dont be disappointed. It happens and this is the story you will tell when you are eventually succesful.

Trading is a hard job..but with dedication and conviction..you will become succesful.

Listen:

1. All charts a lagging indicators. They are like news casters. The report what had happened. Dont rely on them.

2. You need to know your market structure, use logic and good timing.

3. Good Support/Resistance can give good entry and exit points. But beware...these can become dynamic in play. You can only identify authentic pivot points during market action and new ones can come up as well.

4. Dont ever scalp. If you enter a position and immediately it goes in your favour move your stop to the break-even point. With this you preserve capital. It is better to lose profit than capital. If you lose your profit 50% of the time and win it 50% of the time...you are 100% profitable !

5. You can start with GBP100.00 and maybe size of 0.50p. Money volume does not matter. What matters is how profitable consistently. Once you become profitable...you can turn a stone into gold.

6. If you use correct structure..your numbe of trades per day may diminish to say 3~12 trades per day.
 
So you are aiming for a 50% return on your account a day which is highly unlikely in my view.


Paul
 
So you are aiming for a 50% return on your account a day which is highly unlikely in my view.


Paul

Oh no paul,

I dont mean 50% profit. I mean 50% succesful trades. If you anter a trade..you either gain or lose or breakeven. If you enter 10 trades a day...breakeven 5 and win 5, then you are 100% profitable. A breakeven trade is a trade that goes your way and then you loose the gain. A profitable one is the one that you close out in a gain.

gds
 
Hi Teezeike,

It was spanish89 I was referring to, I was not questioning what you had posted


Paul
 
Ive made about 250-350pips in the last 2weeks,



But have lost about 4500-600pips at the same time though,

I don't like to measure wins or losses like this. I measure it as a 250pip loss over 2 weeks (600-350). How does this feel? This is the bottom line. Income - expenditure = profit (loss).
 
I know it does sound extremly unlikely if you judge it as a % of my capital, a currently is at a very low amount,
but i wasn't saying that my current goal is to make 50% of my capital daily, as that would simlpy be extremly foolish to imagine!! :LOL::LOL::LOL:

What i said was is that my current goal is to be able to earn 15pips per hour.

Yes, when you look at this in the longterm it is approx £30,000 per year, which is a nice amount, 2k above my other now backup career starting salary although roughly same number of hours per week.


But if you actually do stop and think about it for a minute, why is it so unlikely to be able to reach this target??

Im not sure how true some of the claims i hear from other members are about how they have just closed £900pip trades, or are up 670pips by lunchtime that day...,
But im always honest, direct, straightforward, and logical.

If i start trading at 8am on the Ftse for example and the morning trend direction correct i would often be on to a 25 - 80pip earner there alone!!


But ok lets take a more average day:
1. I start at 8am ftse (2pip spread), get the morning trend direction right, i would quite easily and comfortably then manage to take 15 to 20pips profit with a few minutes to maybe 10-30minutes, depending on steepness of trend.

2. You could then be a lil greedy and if the trend is still going strong you could hop back on and just take a another 10pips more, or its stopped and is now going downwards you could with 2-3seconds sell down and catch 5-6pips profit on the slide down, even if it only lasts 1-few mins.

And if you wait and watch the trend over the 2nd hour, with 3 trades you quite easily make 5pips per trade as this is between a few seconds to 1-2minutes volatility if you et the direction right.

3. However after 3rd hour the ftse will change from being its usual straight trend, to becoming more of a flatline with varied volatility noise intervals between 10 am to 2pm awaiting Dow opening.
if you chose to trade this noise, you are likely to endup having the trend change direction on you and so you will lose a few pips.., but if you have your platform's website open in a 2nd window in the demo account mode you can test the direction for a few seconds - 20secs and depending on your profit or loss you can trade the direction that 'would have or is giving you profit on the demo account'.

Doing this you should normally only hold for 10sec - a 1-2mins till you have earnt maybe just 3pips profit.
Or cut at 3pips loss if within the few seconds barrier after you made the trade the noise trend line changed against you.

I know that this can be very tedious and repetetive, especially if you are trading 1direction - cutting 30secs later with few pips profit - and then countertrading back down the slide if trend ihas changed direction is flicking back down.
But all you need is 5 trends with 3pips each and you've hit goal for the hour!

(More likely you will lose out a fair few times as trend in demo account wil change within seconds of executing trade, but so even if you make 19trades in the each hour 12=right direction 7=wrong, you still will have earnt 15pips profit in the hour providing you closed each wrong at max 3pips and took each right at min 3pips profit!

After lunch the Dow opens at 2.30 and starts to casue its impacts, you can either make an early trade on the Dow if its trending and can then make 15pips with a minute more often then not if you trade the trend direction!
Or alternatively you decide you want to have a long lunch and just watch the impacts its having on the other markets.....

And then after lunch you could have a look at oil.
If you test the trend with demo, and then counter with real account you can earn your 15pips within seconds, although you could also lose 15with a few secs so have to be very fast and alert, but using Tradindex i can open and close a position within a fraction of a second with just 1 click, not having to enter in any numbers or values like on Ig!!

If you manage to make 15pips with 1 lucky hit on oil your done for that hour, or alternatively you could do a few lil sclaps and take you 3sets of 5pips, or just as much as possible with cutting losses as quick as possible.

OR

If you haven't really got an oil fetish and prefer a more steady safer option you could test trade trade AUS/USD with demo, and then real trade for profit holding for a few minutes, and could also trade JYP/USD at the same time as it usually mirrors the opposite of AUD/USD.

If you trade both of these at the same time, providing you get your 1st trade in the correct direction (quite easy if you use demo account to test other direction at same time) and hold it for 7 to 8pips profit for each market, or even 2sets of 4pips profit for each you would be able to hit the 15pips per hour target for from about 3pm to 7pm.

Although it wouldn't always run that smoothly and you would may endup getting into a losing trend on a few of the hours, providing you cut at max 3pips loss, aif you held any of others for more than 8pips profit you would still hit the 15pip per hour target.


So at the end of the day, all pips added up, you would have hit about 150pips min for 10hours work!! :cheesy::cheesy::clap::clap:

Although you may not be able to do this every single day and some days you amy only make 20-30pips profit if you somehow have extremly extreme bad luck, you could often even exceed 150.


However if you just follow the numbers and disciplines ive written in my thread you should be averaging at about 15pips per hour profit, 3trades of just 5pips profit each. :):D:):idea:
 
P.S Another 1 of my favourite medium risk extremely high profit ratio trades is that when you are trading the AUD/USD , JYP/USD or any forex pair and you manage to spot it at a high peak or day low then go i to BetOnMarkets.com and place a super-double bet on that fx taht it will be atleast 0.03% lower at any 10min interval i choose from the current to end of day, and then 0.03% higher than that at any other 10min interval i choose before end of trading that day.

So if its at high peak i will bet that it will be lower in next 20mins, and then taht it will be lower than that after 40-50more mins!

Its a set 300% profit on this, so when i risk just £43 i earn £175 total = £132 profit of a quite - very easy prediction!! :cheesy::clap::LOL:
 
P.S Another 1 of my favourite medium risk extremely high profit ratio trades is that when you are trading the AUD/USD , JYP/USD or any forex pair and you manage to spot it at a high peak or day low then go i to BetOnMarkets.com and place a super-double bet on that fx taht it will be atleast 0.03% lower at any 10min interval i choose from the current to end of day, and then 0.03% higher than that at any other 10min interval i choose before end of trading that day.

So if its at high peak i will bet that it will be lower in next 20mins, and then taht it will be lower than that after 40-50more mins!

Its a set 300% profit on this, so when i risk just £43 i earn £175 total = £132 profit of a quite - very easy prediction!! :cheesy::clap::LOL:

Sounds very rosy. However, remember the title of this thread. You started it and you named it.

I note that the first post was Saturday, 8th. Not bad going in two days!

I wish you all the best.

Split
 
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But if you actually do stop and think about it for a minute, why is it so unlikely to be able to reach this target??

Quite simply because determining a trend is not that easy and even less so on an hourly basis. Markets will only trend around 30% of the time and that means that the remaining 70% they will be whipsawing or not moving enough to make even 15 pips in an hour.

If it were really as easy as knowing where a trend was on an hourly basis then trading forex would be very very easy.


Paul
 
The markets are trending now and there is no place for scalping. Scalping was for summer 2006.

Based on the current 10% volatility of euro right now to swing trade it or trend follow you need a minimum float of 1000 quid based on 50p bets with say IGindex. So many don't have this minimum to swing so all thats left is scalping and there is only one way your account will ever go scalping in a trend market and that down the pan.
 
sensible advice alan 5616
Tight money managment, concentrate on one market that trades at a time suitable for you, paper trade till confident, start with tiny trades 1% or less.
As a trader you have 3 options, long, short or do not trade. All are equally valid trades. Dont be a gambler be a trader there is a big difference.
I find the Dow trades nicely very often over the last hour or so of the day and if you watch and observe carefully you will get to read what is likely to happen. Thus you can trade for an hour or two every day and make reanonable returns. If you make 10% a month consistently you will be doing well. There are not that many that make consistently more than that. Sure you hear about people making squllions in a day but they fail to say that they give most of it back.
Take your time, learn the craft and best of luck.
Oh and clear your credit card asap LOL
 
A metaquote study on systems found that a losing account loses money exponentially. So say you start of with 10k as a newbie and you dont have a clue your 1st losses will be like 3k then 2k then 1k the 800 then 500 then 400 300 250 225 200 190 185 180 etc as your forced into taking smaller bets out of desperation. This losing 10 k acount will take around 4 months before you dont even have enough to open a 30 stop trade.

A winning account increases in a linear fashion so again i start with 10k now its in the hands of a expert trading many years see what happens now.

10k 10.5k 11k 11.5k 12k. 12.5k 13k 13.5k ............etc
 
The markets are trending now and there is no place for scalping. Scalping was for summer 2006.

Based on the current 10% volatility of euro right now to swing trade it or trend follow you need a minimum float of 1000 quid based on 50p bets with say IGindex. So many don't have this minimum to swing so all thats left is scalping and there is only one way your account will ever go scalping in a trend market and that down the pan.

What on earth are you talking about!? Scalping was for summer 2006...:LOL::LOL::LOL:
 
Im not making it up its true! LOL During the 2006 metaquotes contest about 20% of the winning systems were scalpers on forex. During 2007 not ONE scalper made a dime. In addition no one public EA has been shown to make a profit during 2007 including this year. The precise date if you want to know is 18th October 2006 after spending a very long time investing why this occurred. I never found the reason but i can demonstrate on backtest that many EA's made a fortune right back as far as 1999 to 2006 and all these EA's now lose money. In the very simplest context its because the amount the price retraces is not sufficient to cover the cost of the spreads without moving forwards. This occurred on EVERY major including most of the popular exotics. Im not the only one to notice this either.

Thought i should mention that ad hoc manual scalping will work if your smart enough but the probability has skewed in the market so thats it extremely hard to do this mechanically now. I made a lot of money using chaos theory in tiny time frames from 2004 to late 2006. The mistake i made was hoping for a recovery anytime soon and lost a ton till March 2007 then i realized the market had changed completely! OK so one can say well thats when the dollar started to go down hill but its extremely hard to explain this into what happens in the 1 min bars. The damage limitation was using the weekly trend system but i had placed too much cash to the scalping side of the market.
 
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Ahhhemmmm I am feeling rather used like my topic has been hi-jacked!! LOL :cheesy::LOL::LOL::cheesy::devilish::devilish:
 
Sorry, i didn't mean for your thread to get jacked but in answer to my post it got off on a tangent. To bring it back on track i was suggesting that you shouldn't be scalping.
 
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