Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

I get the feeling we're all forming a consensus on the 9,700 level...( might be time to go long :LOL: ) but seriously, is this a correction move back to 9,700 or the first shot on the road to collapse?.......

it's taking one hell of a beating !! :arrowd:
 
FC where have you been hiding!

OK where talking of support! Lets not get carried away!

I think you may agree that when we were at the highs then traders were suggesting some ridiculous targets! So when we're at the highs traders are excited and optimistic but when we are near the lows traders have a sense of fear present and feel scared! This is greatly reflected by the VIX index! We were at the highs and traders choose to ignore and felt happy at the market now the Dow heads lower they feel that we are simply heading for the floor!

Yes we have had a great move down which has been quicker than the move up! Yes I believe we will see 2004 lows this year but we will not travel in a straight line down! Although we have been the last few days! :devilish:

Support at 10000. Should that fall below that in terms of a close below that then we head for the lows!

Either way first support level is: 9800-9750

We could see us travelling in range for while before the next leg down. That range could well be 10000-10200.

Interesting to note that the VIX is just under 18 (moved up 22% on Friday) and if it reaches 20 then that normally means 'BUY'

The last time the VIX went to 20 was back in August 2004. This was telling us to buy! The Dow was at 9800 and then went up to 10350.
 
user said:
FC where have you been hiding!

OK where talking of support! Lets not get carried away!

I think you may agree that when we were at the highs then traders were suggesting some ridiculous targets! So when we're at the highs traders are excited and optimistic but when we are near the lows traders have a sense of fear present and feel scared! This is greatly reflected by the VIX index! We were at the highs and traders choose to ignore and felt happy at the market now the Dow heads lower they feel that we are simply heading for the floor!

Yes we have had a great move down which has been quicker than the move up! Yes I believe we will see 2004 lows this year but we will not travel in a straight line down! Although we have been the last few days! :devilish:

Support at 10000. Should that fall below that in terms of a close below that then we head for the lows!

Either way first support level is: 9800-9750

We could see us travelling in range for while before the next leg down. That range could well be 10000-10200.

Interesting to note that the VIX is just under 18 (moved up 22% on Friday) and if it reaches 20 then that normally means 'BUY'

The last time the VIX went to 20 was back in August 2004. This was telling us to buy! The Dow was at 9800 and then went up to 10350.
Click to expand...
............................................................................................................................................................................

I think that you are right. We could see a bounce today within the 10000 - 10200 range. If it can't break 10200 and breaches support at 10000 then we could see 9850.
 
seriously, is this a correction move back to 9,700 or the first shot on the road to collapse?.......
Click to expand...

This is the first shot on the road to collapse! But we will see the market bounce of support where ever that may be! This collapse may not happen this year but I strongly believe we will breach 7286 in the next few years or so! This breach of 10400-365 was the confirmation of the start of a bear market. It was also the confirmation of the end of the bull market! This is just the start........ of a major decline......:arrowd: :arrowd: :arrowd:
 
been throwing myself off mountains in an attempt to learn to ski. from complete beginner to red runs in 4 days. not too bad ;)

currently net long on the FTSE at the moment, expecting a fairly sizeable bounce and a retest of 5,000 at least from the south side, before resuming short positions.

User, old bean, i would be vary careful of using Vix as a signal. i know you use it as confirmation, but then again so do millions or people.

im thinking of a manipulated move below 10,000 perhaps this week to take out some stops, followed by a climb back into the high 10,700s and above over the coming weeks. may even have another crack at 11,000..

remember, buy into weakness, sell into strength.

i shall be phasing in longs with wide stops over the coming days..

might get hairy, but ive got +1000 points extra to play with from my FTSE shorts i closed this morning :)

FC
 
User, old bean, i would be vary careful of using Vix as a signal. i know you use it as confirmation, but then again so do millions or people.
Click to expand...

It's just something worth looking at from time to time! Going long on the FTSE100 seems good to me!

I was just thinking along the same lines! 5000 could be tested again! 4900 seems highly possible though!

I had some trades on the FTSE100 to hit 4800 in my betonmarkets account! They turned out nice! Looking to go long now! FTSE100 to touch 4900 in the next 30 days seems like a good bet. 4800 is a good area of support! Well done on your shorts!

I think that you are right. We could see a bounce today within the 10000 - 10200 range. If it can't break 10200 and breaches support at 10000 then we could see 9850.
Click to expand...

Seems like a sensible scenario to me! We'll see what happens!
 
BAC report above estimates this morning.

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Bank of America on Monday said profit climbed 75% as the company cited strength throughout its businesses, lower credit costs, cost-savings from its merger with FleetBoston and gains from the sales of securities.

Bank of America Corp. (BAC: news, chart, profile) said first-quarter net income was $4.7 billion, or $1.14 a share, up from $2.68 billion, or 91 cents, earned in the same period in 2004.

The Charlotte, N.C.-based financial-services giant's quarterly revenue reached $14.02 billion from $9.53 billion.

Results for the year-ago quarter don't include contributions from FleetBoston Financial, the acquisition of which closed April 1, 2004.

Analysts, on average, had been looking for earnings of 97 cents a share on revenue of $13.83 billion.

Merger-related restructuring charges subtracted 2 cents from the latest quarter's profit, Bank of America said

Shares fell 40 cents to $44.28 on Friday

ADBE guides to high end of estimates and announces of MACR in $3.4 bln deal
 
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