Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

Yeh fair comment. H&S could still occur as 'A pattern doesn't have to be exact'.

Lets c
 
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Dow Doji day 33 points range

FTSE still rampant, lol still has me thinking it's propping the Dow up in some small way.

Still on the fence, tommorow's another day !!!
 
Classic indecision day. On-balance-volume isn't signalling long yet. Next few days might be interesting.
 

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Pretty much as expected after last weeks move, the market takes a breather. One thing that surprised me with this move up is the lack of volume confirming it. A look at Friday for example, very strongly +tive volume breadth and add/decline, would imagine caused a fair amount of short covering and yet there was no big increase in total volume, suggesting that not a lot of new money entered the market. Semis looking strong here, tested the 200 day sma today, and closed just below. Total market volume dropped significantly in both markets today which I would consider to be bullish. If the semis can get moving it would make things interesting I think. Just my thoughts and observations
 
I forgot to post the action points for Monday’s moves. Not much missed though, we stayed in a 30 point range and well not much of a range for traders to catch any direction.

Tuesday’s action: A break of 10740 should lead us higher to 10750. Base building at 10750 should lead us to play with 10800.

A break of 10700 could lead us to 10680. A break of 10680 should lead us to 10660. A breach of this area should lead to a steeper decline. I say this as if you see the last 7-day move from 10400, then a breach 0f 10660 would breach the trend line of this recent premature up move.

Interesting week as we are near some important levels. 10800 to 900 and then of course the heights of 11000 are within reach.

Do we fall lower from the current levels?
Are we to find problems with December highs?
Or do we make new highs and post a 'clear' breakout?

I don't have a 'definite' answer. I would definitely favour problems with 10800 area and a possible double top formation could be likely. Was Fridays rallying just a spike up could we have a spike down? Maybe.

Looking at the VIX, a market indicator, a downward direction seems to on the cards very soon. Actually the VIX is 😱screaming😱 at us to sell this market!!!!

If you do not take the current VIX reading as a 'sell indication' then please take it as a 'caution is warranted recommendation'.

We have an interesting week ahead, Good Luck!
 
posted by user last week:-
Another short added this one bigger then the previous stakes. Quite a hefty position accumalated now.
Click to expand...
user - are you still holding those shorts.....?

just out of interest........as someone who trades the Dow with a tight stop, I'm interested to know if other strategies work (in the end...!)

Good Luck
 
i tell you TS.. big = better 🙂

depends on your hold time though. intraday, anything over 40 is chancing things..

multi day, and 200 is reasonable.


expecting early high then sell-off on the Dow today..

FC
 
expecting early high then sell-off on the Dow today..
Click to expand...

FC - does the Dow know what you're expecting.........?!

😉

ps - I'm just on the phone to Wall Street now to make sure that they get it right.....
 
Hi all,my first post and just a quickie.

Can anyone tell me if theres a website that would give me free EOD Vix data?

Thanks.Ash
 
tradesmart said:
user - are you still holding those shorts.....?

just out of interest........as someone who trades the Dow with a tight stop, I'm interested to know if other strategies work (in the end...!)

Good Luck
Click to expand...

I'm hanging in their mate! I must say its crucial levels at the moment. If it reverses it'll be ok.

How you getting on? Caught any short term moves?

Oh and I'm writing my cheque as we speak! Please sort this one out. You can double the rate if you like lol.

FetteredChinos, I hope your theory of a sell-off is true but how did you come to that conclusion? Or is it just your gut feeling?
 
Vocalist try this: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$VIX,uu[m,a]daclyymy[pb50!b200!f][vc60][iut]
 
ps, that will do me for the early high..

short 10,730

stop 10,800

targeting 10,650 region sometime later in the week.. cycle suggests early tomorrow.
 
I've actually added two more positions short to my portofolio. I didn't bother updating this before as I didnt want to scare anyone. So yes I'm pretty bearish! If it goes wrong then it won't be nice! lol

FetteredChinos, goodluck with your recent short. I see you've accumalated a few FTSE short positions aswell. So you've got a bearish stance on the indicies then.

The VIX is suggesting a decline right away. I'm thinking an intraday move towards 10800 might be possible.

Lets see.
 
Hi FC,yeah,how ya doin mate?Ive been quiet as late.Just started doing The Knowledge(London Taxi Driver)so my time has been kept busy.

USER:Thanks a lot,i'll check it out.
 
ah good luck with that Voc..

if you need any tips, then let me know.. ive got Zone 1 and 2 stored in my head 🙂


correct User.. ive been steadily accumulating, as per one of my FTSE strats..

its got a decent enough hit rate ( >70%) for me not to be hugely worried about the indexes recent advance..

🙂
 
Know know its not that FC. Its just that its nice to know someone else has loaded their guns up as well for this decline that we're waiting for.....

Just refreshing to know that I'm not the only one thats hugely bearish at this moment in time.

Goodluck

Shall I add another one? You lot probably think I'm a gambler! 😈
 
cycle suggests early tomorrow.
Click to expand...
FC - are you using your bike for work or training for the tour de france......?

I'm hanging in their mate! I must say its crucial levels at the moment. If it reverses it'll be ok.
How you getting on? Caught any short term moves?
Click to expand...
user - I've been holding long from 10450 on Tuesday last week, which was a nice entry point right above the gap that wasn't filled - a strong bullish indicator imho, and so it has proved to be..

I also day trade on my second account.......

and as someone so correctly said - "The trend is your friend"..... 😉

I can't do 'counter trend' trading as I'm allergic to underwater positions, but I hope that it works for you......
 
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