Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

counter_violent said:
Like I was saying : ...............


Again this shows imho the extent to which hedge funds are the dominant players in the market. Many market participants are off this week, and all the hedge funds want to be on the "right" side of the market. Bearing in mind that most of these funds have had a poor year, nobody wanted to get caught out over the last few days of the year. Today we saw moderate selling in the oil/energy sector turn in to a bit of an avalanche. The oil/energy companies have been the main holdings of the hedge funds over the last year and now it appears that they are cashing in their gains.

I'm not sure where we go from here, but, many of the rent - a - gobs (check cbsmarketwatch)talking about 11000 by the end of the year are looking rather stupid.
 
:LOL: :LOL:
Ah that must be me looking down from on high Tower as ya get it kicked :cheesy:
 
I am with DC I think we will see 11k before we turn down properly. With so much manipulation this year from the invisable hand of uncle Sam I cannot see them not trying to close it over 11k either Friday or early next week.when we are so near. Also remember a lot of new money pours in start of each month & year. We also have greenspan leaving again I cannot see any serious sell off until then. I am overall bearish but do see a last rally before a good drop which the market needs as it has been propped up for too long.

For today would not be surprise to see a dip at the open followed by a nice bounce then a sell off again maybe 750. Then up we go into new year. This last few months has turned most TA, cycles & EW analysts on their heads, I follow a few & can honestly say they have got it wrong as the next man. I have come to the conclusion that the only thing that is clear is Price is king! & what is happening right here right now.

Chartman a excellent poster here a long time ago often used to say about the 100 day sma above long below short this yesterday would have kept you on the right side of the trade. Wish I had taken notice of it myself.

Rustic
 
rustic1 said:
often used to say about the 100 day sma above long below short this yesterday would have kept you on the right side of the trade. Wish I had taken notice of it myself.

Rustic

Huh ?? Could you please explain this maxim a little more clearly !
 
Originally Posted by rustic1
often used to say about the 100 day sma above long below short this yesterday would have kept you on the right side of the trade. Wish I had taken notice of it myself.

Rustic

Certainly kriesau
it is very simple, put a 100 day sma on a 1 min chart I use a 3 min & adapt a 33.33333 sma. I am also experimenting with a 21 day EMA which was good yesterday. It is just another indicator to help alongside other TA. I think Chartman used to say when price crossed above it and retested it to go long vise versa short. Backtested it is great. My problem is I do not follow my own stuff and get side tracked with others views and usually trade badly my own fault completely but when you follow professionals you expect them to get it right more than you. If I was brave enough to follow my own stuff I would overall do better so I am going to have a go in the new year.

There is a old link for Daytrading the Dow on here maybe have a look at old posts. If not PM me with your email & I will send it to you.
 
Morris

I just use the 100 day SMA on my charts that is what is comes up as. Not sure on the 100 BAR Ma what are these?

Rustic
 
100 day MA is based on the average measured over the last 100 days.

100 bar MA is based on the average measured over the last 100 bars, so on a 2 min chart that would equal about 3.33 hours of trading.
 
For today would not be surprise to see a dip at the open followed by a nice bounce then a sell off again maybe 750.

We are in the same ball park although I favour a fast move early Im still long looking for 817 in first 8 mins then a nice low to jump on for a big ride North
 
DC, did you abandon TacticalTrader.com because of the 'upgrade' ?


I reckon we'll see new highs for the year on the SPX this week.
 
Hi Morris

No
I was aware that my posted trades were being noted by some watchers
 
Ah, er I think I understand...


SPX & Dow about to go -ve despite that consumer data I see.
 
Doubt Dow will stay in this narrow band, although a move may not come before 18.45.......cable sat on a support line .......jpy on a resistance line ....interesting stuff !! decision time ........i still favour a Dow move South ... target still 725...... I M H O


C V
 
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